I don't have any confidence in any neocons. Their decisions are driven by their ideology, not reality. Rumsfeld's ideology (aka PNAC) tells him we need to invade Iraq and be policeman of the Middle East, and whether it makes any sense in reality or not, he's going to do everything to get the President to do it. Ideologically he believes the US military should do occupations with fewer troops, so whether that is working or not, he is going with that. The man has longstanding beliefs that he doesn't like challenged, and he is not pragmatic in his approach. Pragmatic way would be to go in full force with enough troops to completely control the ground, and then slowly draw them down as situation improves. His way is to go in with enough troops to respond to attacks, but not enough to control the country, which requires presence.