POLL: Stock Market prediction for Dec 31, 2010

[Zebo]

Zebo, as usual, is about as far from the truth as possible.

I didn't guess the FED would pump 3 trillion of welfare into it to save it. Under fee market forces my predictions would be correct.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2125309&highlight=

Fuse is lit just a matter of length. Which is why I dont fuck with it.

 

[shira]

Actually, if the Dow closes above 11575, Nergee here wins...

First vs Nergee

Place your bets

And the answer is: Dow closed at 11577.51. Nergee by a hair.

 

[Zebo]

All things considered the stock market is where it should be considering the vast devaluations that went on. Some things are sill undervalued so decent growth could happen in the first two quarters after some profit taking in january.

Not even close. Corporate leverage is three times historcal levels. P/E ratios are still insane. welfare from Fed is pumping these nothing else.

everyone is Bullish ATM aka shoeshine index - that's when you GTFO

Course this is final stage in asset stripping you. They got your RE with pump and dump. They got your pension funds by selling them crap mortgages. They got your future earnings with bailouts. They got your savings with inflation and printing and no return with low interest rates.. Time to get you one more time.

 

[soccerballtux]

Not even close. Corporate leverage is three times historcal levels. P/E ratios are still insane. welfare from Fed is pumping these nothing else.

everyone is Bullish ATM aka shoeshine index - that's when you GTFO

Course this is final stage in asset stripping you. They got your RE with pump and dump. They got your pension funds by selling them crap mortgages. They got your future earnings with bailouts. They got your savings with inflation and printing and no return with low interest rates.. Time to get you one more time.

That's a good way of putting it.

 

[soccerballtux]

in·fla·tion
   /ɪnˈfleɪʃən/ Show Spelled[in-fley-shuhn] Show IPA
–noun
1.
Economics . a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency ( opposed to deflation).


Prices go up during inflation so why would stock prices be exempt?

Businesses are assets. They don't go out of business because there is inflation.

I maintain that the stock prices go up with inflation. Why do you think the dow is so high right now? We're approaching what we were before crashing, it's growing daily, and yet there is no new economic growth. That's inflation folks!

 

[sandorski]

Businesses are assets. They don't go out of business because there is inflation.

I maintain that the stock prices go up with inflation. Why do you think the dow is so high right now? We're approaching what we were before crashing, it's growing daily, and yet there is no new economic growth. That's inflation folks!

Incorrect.

 

[boomerang]

So, I was off...by just a little bit. :$ The lesson, I guess, is take into account your state of mind before making predictions.

Congrats to nergee.

 

[First]

Yay for inflationary fiscal policy?

Just because the number is higher than it was last year doesn't mean the VALUE is higher.

Except in reality, the value is higher. Stocks gained 13%-14% this year when you factor in dividends, and that's adjusted for inflation.

 

[Engineer]

Businesses are assets. They don't go out of business because there is inflation.

I maintain that the stock prices go up with inflation. Why do you think the dow is so high right now? We're approaching what we were before crashing, it's growing daily, and yet there is no new economic growth. That's inflation folks!

We are?

 

[Darwin333]

Except in reality, the value is higher. Stocks gained 13%-14% this year when you factor in dividends, and that's adjusted for inflation.

Unemployment hasn't gotten any better, wages have not improved, people have and are losing their homes at insane rates, those who aren't have lost significant equity and can no longer use them as piggy banks, the Fed is printing money to keep interest rates artificially low, commodities have soared, etc...

I don't really see any of that improving anytime soon. Especially the Feds ZIRP which when ended will put another nail in the coffin of the housing market and fubar the Federal budget.

So the question is, other than cutting costs which the market thinks will be permanent (read: laying people off/becoming more efficient), why do you suppose the market has risen so much?

 

[iGas]

We are?

Haven't you heard the double dip theory?

I have no idea why & how theses so call "analysts" could come up with these theories with not thing concrete to back it up.

IMHO, the the market overall is over price (specially minerals) but there are solid evidence that the market will move ahead with or with out the US. China is spear heading the construction of new high tech rails & trains, civilian & military high tech planes, coal & nuclear power plants, and the rest of the infrastructural also moving forward at a rapid rate. India is also developing new military hardware with Russia, coal & nuclear power plants, as well as civilian technologies. The high tech developments required tremendous supports from all sectors to make it happen, therefore I believe that the double dip in the economy is pure hogwash. At the very least, the US is indirectly supports the development in China/India/Russia/Vietnam with trades and many others commodities if it not directly support the military or civilian developments.

The demand for copper/steel/coal/zinc/oil/gas is at an all time high and rare earth demand much higher than it is ever was. China said that it has cut back 10% of rare earth export, but I think the reality is that China can't produce enough rare earth to satisfy internal demand let alone export it. And, the demand is leading Canada and the US to ramp up & re open their rare earth mines to fill in the gap. These are some of the indication that the world economy is not going to take an other hit as we have seen in 2006~2007.

However, everything that goes up must come down.

 

[Jaskalas]

But those 6000 posts are laughable. Where is the hyperinflation? Where is the big disaster?

It happens on command, obviously.

That or, like all good things, it comes to those who wait. Look up what people say about a currency crisis or the collapse of the US dollar. Listen to those explanations before you assume false expectations.

Unless we take major restructuring to our government then we WILL default on our debt. That is, unless, we default on our currency first. The process takes time. No one actually knows how long.

To save face, our politicians WILL create a far larger crisis than the housing bubble ever was.

 

[ultimatebob]

My number was wrong, but at least I got the post election rally right. I also guessed right that Obama wasn't going to do much meaningful to improve the unemployment situation, too.

 

[soccerballtux]

2083

World war coupled with gas at $12 should put a damper on market but I'll be fishing.

Zebo, as usual, is about as far from the truth as possible.

How does hyperinflation go with a 6000 DJI?

High inflation discounts future cash flows, so investors move from equities to more secure investments, namely inflation adjusted treasury bonds. Nobody is going to invest in a business with annual growth of 5% if inflation is 10%.

in·fla·tion
   /ɪnˈfleɪʃən/ Show Spelled[in-fley-shuhn] Show IPA
–noun
1.
Economics . a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency ( opposed to deflation).


Prices go up during inflation so why would stock prices be exempt?

Businesses are assets. They don't go out of business because there is inflation.

I maintain that the stock prices go up with inflation. Why do you think the dow is so high right now? We're approaching what we were before crashing, it's growing daily, and yet there is no new economic growth. That's inflation folks!

Incorrect.

I should say instead "unemployment still at record highs". I am equating that with "no new economic growth".

 

[soccerballtux]

2083

World war coupled with gas at $12 should put a damper on market but I'll be fishing.

Zebo, as usual, is about as far from the truth as possible.

How does hyperinflation go with a 6000 DJI?

High inflation discounts future cash flows, so investors move from equities to more secure investments, namely inflation adjusted treasury bonds. Nobody is going to invest in a business with annual growth of 5% if inflation is 10%.

in·fla·tion
   /ɪnˈfleɪʃən/ Show Spelled[in-fley-shuhn] Show IPA
–noun
1.
Economics . a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency ( opposed to deflation).


Prices go up during inflation so why would stock prices be exempt?

Businesses are assets. They don't go out of business because there is inflation.

I maintain that the stock prices go up with inflation. Why do you think the dow is so high right now? We're approaching what we were before crashing, it's growing daily, and yet there is no new economic growth. That's inflation folks!

We are?

11,5 and trending up with little drop in unemployment, yup.

 

[sandorski]

11,5 and trending up with little drop in unemployment, yup.

One problem with your statement, there is very little Inflation.

 

[First]

Unemployment hasn't gotten any better,

Sure it has, you just haven't seen it yet because the BLS calculates unemployment based on how many people are consistently looking for work, a figure that has drastically increased this year and is the only reason unemployment isn't well below 9%. It's now closer to historical norms as a percentage of the working population and should help the unemployment rate drop dramatically, but it'll probably take a good 2 years.

wages have not improved, people have and are losing their homes at insane rates, those who aren't have lost significant equity and can no longer use them as piggy banks, the Fed is printing money to keep interest rates artificially low, commodities have soared, etc...

1) Wages have increased since late 2008, that's a fact.

2) Fed printing money is irrelevant since neither QE or QE2 has led to any verifiable inflation whatsoever beyond 1%.

3) The housing market is still in poor shape, agreed.

4) Equity has not dried up, not sure what you're talking about. We just came off a year where the market yielded 13-14%, including dividends and adjusting for inflation.

5) Commodities soaring isn't a bad thing, it's just a bubble is all.

I don't really see any of that improving anytime soon. Especially the Feds ZIRP which when ended will put another nail in the coffin of the housing market and fubar the Federal budget.

Wanna bet?

So the question is, other than cutting costs which the market thinks will be permanent (read: laying people off/becoming more efficient), why do you suppose the market has risen so much?

Because the market prices in trends 6-9 months ahead of time, and they like what they see in terms of corporate profits, hiring and products/technologies in general. Let's be real here, we've had consistently much higher unemployment rates in the last 100 years than we've had on average the last 2 years.

 

[LegendKiller]

High inflation discounts future cash flows, so investors move from equities to more secure investments, namely inflation adjusted treasury bonds. Nobody is going to invest in a business with annual growth of 5% if inflation is 10%.

Sorry, but you're missing something major here...

 

[LegendKiller]

Not even close. Corporate leverage is three times historcal levels. P/E ratios are still insane. welfare from Fed is pumping these nothing else.

everyone is Bullish ATM aka shoeshine index - that's when you GTFO

Course this is final stage in asset stripping you. They got your RE with pump and dump. They got your pension funds by selling them crap mortgages. They got your future earnings with bailouts. They got your savings with inflation and printing and no return with low interest rates.. Time to get you one more time.

A huge part of any leverage is offset by assets, including the cash hordes everybody points out. It'd be interesting to know how many stages of debt multiplication are eliminated from this chart. I doubt that it removes all of the different layers of securitized assets.

 

[soccerballtux]

One problem with your statement, there is very little Inflation.

did you not read my posts

 

[Engineer]

11,5 and trending up with little drop in unemployment, yup.

14,087.55 != 11,575.

It would have to go up 21.7% to reach the high so I'm not sure it's "approaching" the all time high.

 

[dmcowen674]

Inflation will jump very fast by design due to energy jump alone.

Would not be surprised to see 14%

The rich benefit whether big drops or big rises.

The stock market is just a Monopoly game for them.

 

[kage69]

Did I win anything? Seeing spidey get proven wrong again doesn't feel too rewarding, on account of it's frequency.

 

[iGas]

Sure it has, you just haven't seen it yet because the BLS calculates unemployment based on how many people are consistently looking for work, a figure that has drastically increased this year and is the only reason unemployment isn't well below 9%. It's now closer to historical norms as a percentage of the working population and should help the unemployment rate drop dramatically, but it'll probably take a good 2 years.




1) Wages have increased since late 2008, that's a fact.

2) Fed printing money is irrelevant since neither QE or QE2 has led to any verifiable inflation whatsoever beyond 1%.

3) The housing market is still in poor shape, agreed.

4) Equity has not dried up, not sure what you're talking about. We just came off a year where the market yielded 13-14%, including dividends and adjusting for inflation.

5) Commodities soaring isn't a bad thing, it's just a bubble is all.



Wanna bet?


Because the market prices in trends 6-9 months ahead of time, and they like what they see in terms of corporate profits, hiring and products/technologies in general. Let's be real here, we've had consistently much higher unemployment rates in the last 100 years than we've had on average the last 2 years.

I'm not sure what wages like for others, but for me and over 800 others around here wage is improving.

Wage raise per hour:
2007 ++ $1.00
2008 ++ $1.00
2009 ++ $1.25
2010 ++ $0.00
2011 ++ $0.75
2012 ++ $0.75
2013 ++ $0.95