[Poll] China uses trade protectionism to boom while U.S. economy languishes.

[WhipperSnapper]

Pat Buchanan just put out an worthwhile op-ed that describes how China's trade protectionism and China First policies combined with America's open market has allowed China to boom while the U.S. economy languishes.

China's Path to World Power

In the meantime China is trying to hold back population growth while the U.S. welcomes population explosion as evidenced by our suicidal immigration policies. Does anyone besides me think that the end result will be that China will become a first world country while the U.S. ends up being an overpopulated, impoverished country perhaps similar to India or a South American country?

 

[miketheidiot]

china is most benefiting from currency manipulation, making its currency undervalued and its goods therefore cheaper.

 

[Born2bwire]

It is my understanding that if it wasn't for immigration, our population would be decreasing as it is in other first world countries like in Europe. This can have a lot of problems because as the larger, older generation retires, they place an undue burden on the younger generation. Just look at Social Security and the retirement of the baby boomers. A much smaller work force is replacing the baby boomer generation, putting in less money into social programs and producing less. As the baby boomers retire, they will put a large strain on social programs and healthcare that a smaller population will have to bear. The US has the resources to support a larger population and I do not see anything wrong with how things are proceeding at the moment (unless you are concerned about cultural purity). In the end, being a first world country is its own deterrent for population growth. The cost of having a family here as opposed to China or India is much much higher. The cost of living and the added costs for raising children in a first world country make it prohibitively expensive for most people to have large families. Children are a complete drain on the family and society. They no longer, due to child labor laws (not saying it's a bad thing in any way), produce anything. In agrarian societies that rely more on manual labor, having a large family makes economic sense since the added labor increases the family's production.

Right now the only thing that China has going for it is the low cost labor and centralized manufacturing. But as they progress into a first world nation, the standard of living will rise and worker's rights will improve. Inevitably, the same increases to the cost of manufacturing and labor will arise just as it did in the US. Cheap manufacturing is drawn to the lowest bidder and I cannot see China advancing to the forefront without having to increase the cost of production, driving manufacturing out of China to other countries. At the same time, the US is still a leading manufacturer and it still has plenty of service industry. As long as the US can remain at the forefront of science and technology we should still experience a good level of production.

Fact is, a rising China does not mean a falling US. The British Empire fell but the United Kingdom still enjoys a very high level standard of living. I think people need to start making the distinction between other countries raising themselves up versus the US falling down. I think the main problem in the future is going to be the same one that we have always had, the control and distribution of resources. As China, and other countries like India, rise up, they will demand more and more resources and that is probably going to be the dynamic that determines how all our respective economies progress.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Born2bwire
It is my understanding that if it wasn't for immigration, our population would be decreasing as it is in other first world countries like in Europe. This can have a lot of problems because as the larger, older generation retires, they place an undue burden on the younger generation. Just look at Social Security and the retirement of the baby boomers. A much smaller work force is replacing the baby boomer generation, putting in less money into social programs and producing less. As the baby boomers retire, they will put a large strain on social programs and healthcare that a smaller population will have to bear. The US has the resources to support a larger population and I do not see anything wrong with how things are proceeding at the moment (unless you are concerned about cultural purity). In the end, being a first world country is its own deterrent for population growth. The cost of having a family here as opposed to China or India is much much higher. The cost of living and the added costs for raising children in a first world country make it prohibitively expensive for most people to have large families. Children are a complete drain on the family and society. They no longer, due to child labor laws (not saying it's a bad thing in any way), produce anything. In agrarian societies that rely more on manual labor, having a large family makes economic sense since the added labor increases the family's production.

Right now the only thing that China has going for it is the low cost labor and centralized manufacturing. But as they progress into a first world nation, the standard of living will rise and worker's rights will improve. Inevitably, the same increases to the cost of manufacturing and labor will arise just as it did in the US. Cheap manufacturing is drawn to the lowest bidder and I cannot see China advancing to the forefront without having to increase the cost of production, driving manufacturing out of China to other countries. At the same time, the US is still a leading manufacturer and it still has plenty of service industry. As long as the US can remain at the forefront of science and technology we should still experience a good level of production.

Fact is, a rising China does not mean a falling US. The British Empire fell but the United Kingdom still enjoys a very high level standard of living. I think people need to start making the distinction between other countries raising themselves up versus the US falling down. I think the main problem in the future is going to be the same one that we have always had, the control and distribution of resources. As China, and other countries like India, rise up, they will demand more and more resources and that is probably going to be the dynamic that determines how all our respective economies progress.

Right now the only thing that China has going for it is the low cost labor and centralized manufacturing. But as they progress into a first world nation, the standard of living will rise and worker's rights will improve. Inevitably, the same increases to the cost of manufacturing and labor will arise just as it did in the US. Cheap manufacturing is drawn to the lowest bidder and I cannot see China advancing to the forefront without having to increase the cost of production, driving manufacturing out of China to other countries.

You just don't get it. China is not a free country and therefore the free market rules either don't apply or don't apply fully.
Your assumptions are therefore false. China's standard of living will not necessarily rise to the point where their labor costs become prohibitive. China is a dictatorship with its people not much more than slaves.
China does not have to give its workers any rights. Once again, remember they are slaves.
And even if Chinese labor costs do rise somewhat, the Chinese dictators will just manipulate their currency to keep their labor cost just low enough to keep production in China.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
Pat Buchanan just put out an worthwhile op-ed that describes how China's trade protectionism and China First policies combined with America's open market has allowed China to boom while the U.S. economy languishes.

China's Path to World Power

In the meantime China is trying to hold back population growth while the U.S. welcomes population explosion as evidenced by our suicidal immigration policies. Does anyone besides me think that the end result will be that China will become a first world country while the U.S. ends up being an overpopulated, impoverished country perhaps similar to India or a South American country?

That's American policy towards all countries, not just China.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

No one else thought Buchanan's op-ed was worthy of discussion?

 

[Obsoleet]

I think people are misguided on the whole "USA is doomed" schtick. After traveling the world personally, I can confirm the USA is going nowhere no matter how hard anyone wishes or tries. At minimum anyone's lifetime reading this won't see the USA become as often mentioned as a country such as Chad. Nothing against Chad. It's just that the astronomic influence the US wields is simply not going anywhere, we're effecting China more than they are effecting us as far as influences go. In fact it could be said China has had no influence on the USA besides cheap, lead-ridden toys and products.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot
china is most benefiting from currency manipulation, making its currency undervalued and its goods therefore cheaper.

this

 

[heyheybooboo]

1) There is no population 'explosion' in the USA.
2) China manipulates it's currency? No big surprise, so does the USA.
3) China uses cheap labor - The USA uses cheap labor (i.e., Hispanics).
4) The growth in jobs in China is primarily centered on skilled, technical manufacturing jobs that were formally in the USA.
5) Skilled labor is cheaper than automation in China.
6) There are skilled labor shortages in China, too.
7) There is an infinite resource of unskilled labor in China but costs are rising 10%/year.
8) Wages in China are rising close to 25 percent a year for skilled labor in many industries.
9) Thailand and Vietnam (among many others) is where the cheap labor action is booming.

and

10) The US dollar has gained around 18% against the Chinese Yuan since mid-2005.

 

[Pulsar]

Manufacturing jobs will go whever it makes fiscal sense for them to go. As heyheybooboo stated, there is no population explosion in the USA. The last statistic I saw said that for every 67 babies born in the US, 357 are born in China. However, that is about the only thing he DID get right.

2) China manipulates it's currency? No big surprise, so does the USA.

The United States manipulates it's currency on a very very limited basis. The Chinese Government engages in wholesale lockdowns of their currency value to keep it where they want it to be.

To quote our state department:

Exchange rate flexibility, which garners most of the attention, is first and foremost in the China's interest. With a rigid exchange rate, China's monetary policy is effectively set by the Federal Reserve. China must absorb large inflows of capital and can't raise its own interest rates without attracting even larger flows. Greater exchange rate flexibility will strengthen the ability of Chinese monetary policy to help assure sustained growth, avoiding the boom-bust cycles that have characterized Chinese growth to date. Greater ability to control domestic interest rates will also lead to more efficient and prudent financial intermediation, and help avoid credit-fueled investment booms and resulting buildups of non-performing loans.

In fact, in July of last year, the Chinese leadership publicly committed to greater exchange rate flexibility and Premier Wen reaffirmed that commitment just last month. Our engagement with China on exchange rate policy is now not about "whether" but about "how quickly." To date China's progress has been far too cautious. The obstacles are no longer technical; China could easily move more rapidly towards greater flexibility. It should do so now.

3) China uses cheap labor - The USA uses cheap labor (i.e., Hispanics).

First, China's pool of "Cheap" labor is over 1 billion people. The "hispanics" you're talking about (I'm assuming) are illegals working for under minimum wage, and as such make up an incredibly small portion of laborers in the US. In addition, they are not working manufacturing jobs - they are working at manual labor jobs.

4) The growth in jobs in China is primarily centered on skilled, technical manufacturing jobs that were formally in the USA.

The growth of jobs in China is certainly not center on skilled technical manufacturing jobs. It is centered on menial labor jobs where people sit at a table for 12 hours a day and put a specific bolt into a specific hole, generally under absolutely horrible conditions.

6) There are skilled labor shortages in China, too.

There are some skilled labor shortages, but they are being filled incredibly quickly. Chinese colleges graduate more engineers in one year that US colleges graduate in TOTAL. In positions where they don't have expertise, they are hiring Americans for the short term. Doctors, Vets, Engineers, all are being flown over there for a year to 'train' the chinese. I know, because 3 of my family members are over there right now.

7) There is an infinite resource of unskilled labor in China but costs are rising 10%/year.
8) Wages in China are rising close to 25 percent a year for skilled labor in many industries.

Again, unskilled labor in China is what's currently driving their economic boom.

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js4172.htm

More than twenty-five years have passed since China began its transition to a market economy, and China has seen its standard of living surge. The growth of China's income per capita is much faster than that of any region in the world, and especially noteworthy considering the country's size and extreme regional differences. Rural poverty has declined significantly, dropping 89% from 1978-2002.

10) The US dollar has gained around 18% against the Chinese Yuan since mid-2005.

Gained. Which means it's that much cheaper to manufacture in China - exactly the point he made with his reference to manipulation.

In answer to the original poster - no. If the US were to ever decline, it would be over a course of generations. Our economy is so tightly tied to others because of the money and power we wield that they will help to keep us afloat in bad times. Look what our financial market mess caused - a global recession.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
1) There is no population 'explosion' in the USA.

According to Census Bureau stats the U.S. gained about 32.7 million people in the 10 years from 1990 to 2000. If current trends continue, by 2050 the population will be 459 million.

Where Does the Census Bureau Say We're Heading by 2050?

The more the merrier, right? Unfortunately, we live in a world of finite resources (ever heard of a guy named Malthus?) and all of those additional people will want land to live on, food to eat, clean water, fresh air, energy resources, natural resources, oh, and an environment that can absorb their pollution.

According to a basic law of economics, when the demand for something (food, land, natural resources, etc.) increases relative to a relatively static supply, the price point has to increase. In other words--we might be able to live richer, wealthier lives if the costs for limited resources (like land and energy resources) were lower (which means fewer people).

If you've never seen it before, then I suggest that you rent the movie Soylent Green this weekend in order to see all of this dramatized.