Pole, predict the spread on the Presidential election

[Pliablemoose]

Like the title, take a stab at it & post something so you can say I told you so in November.

I pretty much suck at polls, so vote for your candidate & how they'll do.

I'm going to call an Obama win by 6 points in the PV, and a win through the EC

 

[nick1985]

Obama should win. If he loses he royally fucked up somehow.

 

[nageov3t]

Obama will win both, unless he does something to completely screw it up.

but I don't think it's going to be as much of an overwhelming landslide of all americans in all walks of life drinking coke... er, embracing change (not that it won't stop the next president from declaring a sweeping mandate from a 51:49 victory like Bush did). I think it'll likely boil down to CO and VA.

 

[Red Dawn]

Yeah McCain would have done a lot better against Hillary, in fact he probably would have won.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I'd like to thank Craig for letting me know I misspelled poll

Next, he's going to tell me Brooks isn't running

 

[ProfJohn]

Way to early to tell.

McCain needs to get his act together soon or else he is toast. But look at the 1976 election where Ford closed the gap near the end came close to winning. Or the 1980 election where it was close until Reagan convinced the people that he could be trusted and then won in a landslide.

Either could happen here.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

I predict a Clinton/Dole type of outcome: Obama wins by a landslide in the electoral vote a decisive margin in the popular vote. 8% sounds about right.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Way to early to tell.

McCain needs to get his act together soon or else he is toast. But look at the 1976 election where Ford closed the gap near the end came close to winning. Or the 1980 election where it was close until Reagan convinced the people that he could be trusted and then won in a landslide.

Either could happen here.

Things have plenty of time to change, but it is certainly Obama's election to lose. I'm sure he wishes it was November right now.

 

[Butterbean]

Obama is turning into political vaporware. If McCain gets serious and stops playing the useful idiot Barry is done. McCain in PV and EV blowout.

 

[Arkaign]

Originally posted by: Butterbean
Obama is turning into political vaporware. If McCain gets serious and stops playing the useful idiot Barry is done. McCain in PV and EV blowout.

:laugh:

 

[GodlessAstronomer]

Originally posted by: Butterbean
Obama is turning into political vaporware. If McCain gets serious and stops playing the useful idiot Barry is done. McCain in PV and EV blowout.

The League of Mental Patients called, they want their crazy back.

 

[StageLeft]

Dayum, my poll numbers are slipping hard, I'm barely above Ron Paul

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Dayum, my poll numbers are slipping hard, I'm barely above Ron Paul

You're portrayed as "the magic Canadian", you know, the one Canadian that gets the youth to finally vote in the presidential election.

 

[Fern]

Way too soon to tell.

The only people really paying attention now are us P&N-type nutjobs and talking heads.

What happens after labor Day and up til Nov voting will count quite a bit.

The state-wide candidates/elections will really launch their campaigns in that time frame. They are ones who really go negative and Obama might get some heat then (Wright etc).

Right now I see it as 70/30 Obama's favor.

Fern

 

[Craig234]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
I'd like to thank Craig for letting me know I misspelled poll

You're welcome. Figured you might like a PM before someone said something nasty.

Next, he's going to tell me Brooks isn't running [/quote]

?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Craig234

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
I'd like to thank Craig for letting me know I misspelled poll

You're welcome. Figured you might like a PM before someone said something nasty.

Next, he's going to tell me Brooks isn't running

?[/quote]

Brooks

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: Fern
Way too soon to tell.

How is it too early to tell? We have a two guys, from two very different parties. On the Republican side we've got John McCain, an old, boring man who's a member of the party that over the last eight years, scandal after fuck-up, mess up then cover up, nearly appears to enjoy losing favor with the American Public.

On the other side of isle we have Obama. He's charismatic, young, enthusiastic and the member of the party that has and continues to gain favor with the public without any work of their own but because the other party just sucks that much.

Is it really too early to tell?

 

[toadeater]

I predict McCain is going to lose the last of his remaining functional brain cells and end up as a vegetable before the election is over. I'm surprised he is still able memorize his speeches, or remember to take his pants off before going to the bathroom.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: Tab

Originally posted by: Fern
Way too soon to tell.

How is it too early to tell? We have a two guys, from two very different parties. On the Republican side we've got John McCain, an old, boring man who's a member of the party that over the last eight years, scandal after fuck-up, mess up then cover up, nearly appears to enjoy losing favor with the American Public.

On the other side of isle we have Obama. He's charismatic, young, enthusiastic and the member of the party that has and continues to gain favor with the public without any work of their own but because the other party just sucks that much.

Is it really too early to tell?

The reasons why I think to earlier was in the part of my post you deleted.

Last poll I saw 15% were undecided. They are enough to swing it either way. I believe some of those who are now listed for one or the other candidate may well change their vote come Nov.

Finally, 3 months is a lifetime in campaigns. It's not usual for someone leading at this point to lose.

Barring any significant development outside the candidates' control (e.g., terroists attack here) or some as-yet-unkown scandel coming to the forfront, I think the election is Obama's to win or lose. Tha's why I give him far better odds.

Were he a better known candidate, I would have upped his odds even higher. But I think less well known candidates are more subject to negative campaigning (known around here as swiftboaing). While I don't expect McCain or the RNC to go that route, I now suspect state parties may do that. Wannabe state Repub candidates might do that and try to tie their Dem opponet to Obama in an effort to win. I think we've seen some evidence of taht already (e.g., some Washinton state campaign).

Fern

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: Tab

Originally posted by: Fern
Way too soon to tell.

How is it too early to tell? We have a two guys, from two very different parties. On the Republican side we've got John McCain, an old, boring man who's a member of the party that over the last eight years, scandal after fuck-up, mess up then cover up, nearly appears to enjoy losing favor with the American Public.

On the other side of isle we have Obama. He's charismatic, young, enthusiastic and the member of the party that has and continues to gain favor with the public without any work of their own but because the other party just sucks that much.

Is it really too early to tell?

The reasons why I think to earlier was in the part of my post you deleted.

Last poll I saw 15% were undecided. They are enough to swing it either way. I believe some of those who are now listed for one or the other candidate may well change their vote come Nov.

Finally, 3 months is a lifetime in campaigns. It's not usual for someone leading at this point to lose.

Barring any significant development outside the candidates' control (e.g., terroists attack here) or some as-yet-unkown scandel coming to the forfront, I think the election is Obama's to win or lose. Tha's why I give him far better odds.

Were he a better known candidate, I would have upped his odds even higher. But I think less well known candidates are more subject to negative campaigning (known around here as swiftboaing). While I don't expect McCain or the RNC to go that route, I now suspect state parties may do that. Wannabe state Repub candidates might do that and try to tie their Dem opponet to Obama in an effort to win. I think we've seen some evidence of taht already (e.g., some Washinton state campaign).

Fern

My response addresses your OP, I'm just trying to a little more organized.

Obama, after beating Hilary, is a well known candidate, even more so than John McCain. Of course, there will always be unknowns such as a potential terrorist attack but that's not some thing we can put into consideration. On the other hand we can look at the last eight years, the candidates and the parties.

Obama has the edge, I don't why anyone would dispute this.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Like the title, take a stab at it & post something so you can say I told you so in November.

I pretty much suck at polls, so vote for your candidate & how they'll do.

I'm going to call an Obama win by 6 points in the PV, and a win through the EC

Looks like I am only one to predict Obama wins PV but loses EC by two states.

 

[GenHoth]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Like the title, take a stab at it & post something so you can say I told you so in November.

I pretty much suck at polls, so vote for your candidate & how they'll do.

I'm going to call an Obama win by 6 points in the PV, and a win through the EC

Looks like I am only one to predict Obama wins PV but loses EC by two states.

You know, I think I'll join you there. I think that a lot of Obama's support is going to end up in states already democratic.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Like the title, take a stab at it & post something so you can say I told you so in November.

I pretty much suck at polls, so vote for your candidate & how they'll do.

I'm going to call an Obama win by 6 points in the PV, and a win through the EC

Looks like I am only one to predict Obama wins PV but loses EC by two states.

I can actually see that happening, it won't be pretty if it does either.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Like the title, take a stab at it & post something so you can say I told you so in November.

I pretty much suck at polls, so vote for your candidate & how they'll do.

I'm going to call an Obama win by 6 points in the PV, and a win through the EC

Looks like I am only one to predict Obama wins PV but loses EC by two states.

I can actually see that happening, it won't be pretty if it does either.

it would certainly be amazingly ironic.

 

[Rockinacoustic]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Like the title, take a stab at it & post something so you can say I told you so in November.

I pretty much suck at polls, so vote for your candidate & how they'll do.

I'm going to call an Obama win by 6 points in the PV, and a win through the EC

Looks like I am only one to predict Obama wins PV but loses EC by two states.

I could certainly see that.