poker odds?

[AntaresVI]

Was playing hold'em, had 10 10, and the flop was A88 with the turn also an 8. Got beat by 4 of a kind. What i'm wondering is, what are the odds? i looked around online and I''ve seen 4.2% and 2.2% - anyone know how to calculate this?

 

[TySnyder]

Google holdem hand odds, unless your thread was just to whine about a bad beat. In that case suck it up, it's not the last time it will happen.

 

[chuckywang]

The odds when? Post flop, post turn?

 

[Epic Fail]

(1 / 47) + (1 / 46) = 0.0430157262

 

[Schfifty Five]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
The odds when? Post flop, post turn?

 

[her209]

Do you reshuffle after every round?

 

[her209]

Also, how many players are there?

 

[AntaresVI]

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: chuckywang
The odds when? Post flop, post turn?

Thats a good question. I suppose what i meant was given a pocket pair (me) and 3 of a kind on the table, what is the probability that one of the other players (there were three) had the last 8. Initially I thought that it was 1/ (52 - 2(me) - 5(the cards on the table) making it 1/45 = 2.2%. Is this right?

edit: i'm not a stats/math guy, so thats why i ask...it seems simple, but i dont know

 

[IAteYourMother]

Originally posted by: AntaresVI

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: chuckywang
The odds when? Post flop, post turn?

Thats a good question. I suppose what i meant was given a pocket pair (me) and 3 of a kind on the table, what is the probability that one of the other players (there were three) had the last 8. Initially I thought that it was 1/ (52 - 2(me) - 5(the cards on the table) making it 1/45 = 2.2%. Is this right?

edit: i'm not a stats/math guy, so thats why i ask...it seems simple, but i dont know

so that would be preflop. Hell, that would be pre-hand.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

I dont see why anyone would keep playing.

If the board has THREE 8s, and you have pocket 10s, that gives you 8s full 10s. There's an ace on the board. Anyone could've played top pair from there. Then you run the risk of running into a 4 of a kind which you did.

Bad decision on your part.

 

[AntaresVI]

Originally posted by: IAteYourMother

Originally posted by: AntaresVI

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: chuckywang
The odds when? Post flop, post turn?

Thats a good question. I suppose what i meant was given a pocket pair (me) and 3 of a kind on the table, what is the probability that one of the other players (there were three) had the last 8. Initially I thought that it was 1/ (52 - 2(me) - 5(the cards on the table) making it 1/45 = 2.2%. Is this right?

edit: i'm not a stats/math guy, so thats why i ask...it seems simple, but i dont know

so that would be preflop. Hell, that would be pre-hand.

But the odds of someone having a particular card don't change based on position in the game, do they? I feel like the true odds are set but the implied odds change based on how many players, how they bet, etc.

 

[IAteYourMother]

Originally posted by: DLeRium
I dont see why anyone would keep playing.

If the board has THREE 8s, and you have pocket 10s, that gives you 8s full 10s. There's an ace on the board. Anyone could've played top pair from there. Then you run the risk of running into a 4 of a kind which you did.

Bad decision on your part.

depends on your read, and whether you think the other guy is bluffing.

 

[JS80]

NL holdem is not about odds...it's about playing the other players...

 

[AntaresVI]

Originally posted by: DLeRium
I dont see why anyone would keep playing.

If the board has THREE 8s, and you have pocket 10s, that gives you 8s full 10s. There's an ace on the board. Anyone could've played top pair from there. Then you run the risk of running into a 4 of a kind which you did.

Bad decision on your part.

you are correct. Honestly, I'm rather new to poker so I don't have the skills to realize all the possibilities out there.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Originally posted by: AntaresVI

Originally posted by: DLeRium
I dont see why anyone would keep playing.

If the board has THREE 8s, and you have pocket 10s, that gives you 8s full 10s. There's an ace on the board. Anyone could've played top pair from there. Then you run the risk of running into a 4 of a kind which you did.

Bad decision on your part.

you are correct. Honestly, I'm rather new to poker so I don't have the skills to realize all the possibilities out there.

But yea.. that post flop odds at that point are what... 2 / 45?

 

[cubby1223]

Doesn't matter what the odds are that he had an 8. Even if you trust the supposed 2% - that's just the odds that one person has an 8. If you're playing with 5 or 6 people, the odds are much greater that atleast one of them has an 8 - or an A, or even a higher pocket pair than you, all of which would have taken you for all your money.

Watch some world poker tour events on either fsn or the travel channel before you play poker again.

 

[DrumminBoy]

Originally posted by: cubby1223
Doesn't matter what the odds are that he had an 8. Even if you trust the supposed 2% - that's just the odds that one person has an 8. If you're playing with 5 or 6 people, the odds are much greater that atleast one of them has an 8 - or an A, or even a higher pocket pair than you, all of which would have taken you for all your money.

Watch some world poker tour events on either fsn or the travel channel before you play poker again.

:roll: because that's how you REALLY learn how to play...

 

[anxi80]

Originally posted by: DLeRium

Originally posted by: AntaresVI
you are correct. Honestly, I'm rather new to poker so I don't have the skills to realize all the possibilities out there.

But yea.. that post flop odds at that point are what... 2 / 45?

antaresvi, here's a quick way to figure out how to possibly draw a winner after the flop comes. use the rules of 4 and 2. count your outs and then use simple multiplication. with 2 outs (the 2 10's left), multiply 2 by 4. so, you're around 8% to catch another 10 with the turn and the river to help you. if the turn doesnt help, now you are using the rule of 2 and are now at 4% to catch that last 10.

for the purists, its actually 8.8% and 4.5% but now we're just splitting hairs. 😉

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Originally posted by: AntaresVI

Originally posted by: Schfifty Five

Originally posted by: chuckywang
The odds when? Post flop, post turn?

Thats a good question. I suppose what i meant was given a pocket pair (me) and 3 of a kind on the table, what is the probability that one of the other players (there were three) had the last 8. Initially I thought that it was 1/ (52 - 2(me) - 5(the cards on the table) making it 1/45 = 2.2%. Is this right?

edit: i'm not a stats/math guy, so thats why i ask...it seems simple, but i dont know

Your on the right track, but what you have figured is the odds of 1 card being the remaining eight. But each player has 2 hole cards and there are 3 other players. So the odds of you getting beat by 4 eights is

2x3=6/45 13.3%

But with the A on the table your overall odds of getting beat where much worse

 

[richardycc]

I was out the first hand tonight, I had AK and the other girl had pair of KK, blinds were 100/200, I raised to 400, next guy raised to $2500, this girl raised to $5000. I called. the guy folded. the flop was like 4 6 8, she bet $5000 again, I called, turn was a 10, she checked, I thought she either set up a trap or show her weakness, so I bet $10k, she then went all in. I called because I am pretty much pot committed at that point. I was hoping she had AK too for a split pot, the river was another useless card. oh well, good thing it was all free. The winner do get $75, 2nd gets $25 real money, and I've won a few times already.

 

[anxi80]

a-k will win that hand 31% of the time. but it looks like the 69% prevailed that time richardycc.

 

[cubby1223]

Originally posted by: DrumminBoy

Originally posted by: cubby1223
Doesn't matter what the odds are that he had an 8. Even if you trust the supposed 2% - that's just the odds that one person has an 8. If you're playing with 5 or 6 people, the odds are much greater that atleast one of them has an 8 - or an A, or even a higher pocket pair than you, all of which would have taken you for all your money.

Watch some world poker tour events on either fsn or the travel channel before you play poker again.

:roll: because that's how you REALLY learn how to play...

appologies for bumping an old thread - but come on, you don't think there's anything to learn watching how professionals handle different starting hands? How they use position to steal pots? How the announcers talk about concerns the players have with the community cards? Oh, but I guess you're right, there is absolutely nothing that can be learned by watching the game being played by professionals.