Poker: I always have the pot odds to call with a flush draw?

[JEDI]

lets say i'm late position with 76 clubs.

the flop gives me a flush draw. i have $20 left and the pot = $20.
Middle player bets $20.

I'm getting 2:1 to call which is 33.3%.
the odds of a flush hitting by the river = 9outs x 4 = 36%

so i basically have the odds to call (close enuf)?

 

[scorer]

if your 7 high flush draw is good

 

[ZaneNBK]

Yeah, the 7 high is your problem. If anyone else is playing that flush draw there's a good chance they'll beat you as I doubt they would have stayed in the hand with anything worse than 67 suited. However, without knowing how many players are still in the hand and what was flopped it's hard to know what to do at this point. A bet that big on the flop sounds like the other player is bluffing or semi-bluffing or doesn't want anyone chasing the flush. His cards are probably good now but not good enough if a flush pans out.

 

[veri745]

if your 7 high flush draw is good

This.

Your flush is probably good against whoever is making the $20 bet. It's the number of other players in the pot that would be the main concern.

the odds of a flush hitting by the river = 9outs x 4 = 36%

Your actual odds to hit the flush are 1 - ((1 - 9/47) * (1 - 9/46)) = 34.9%, much closer to the 33.3% pot odds you're getting than your estimated 36%

 

[Attic]

nm

If you think you'll go heads up with the player who bet it's worth the call. Unlikely he'd pot it on a flush draw.

Odds are slightly under 35%. Much better to learn the common draws in an X to 1 format as it makes determining your pot odds (what you're doing here) much more manageable.

Pot odds needed for a flush draw with two cards to come is 1.9. To call a bet of $20 the pot would need to be $38 (1.9x20) or greater.

Pot odds needed for a flush draw with one to come (flop to turn) is 4.2. To call bet of $20 the pot would need to be $84. Not considering implied odds.

X to 1 format is much more manageable to cacluate desired pot odds, whther they make mathematical sense for draws, as compared to learning %'s of draws and then figuring pot odds.

Anyways, you shouldn't play 76s with $20 behind. Most times you flop nothing and when you do flop something you don't want to only get $20 in with it.

 

[preslove]

This.

Your flush is probably good against whoever is making the $20 bet. It's the number of other players in the pot that would be the main concern.

This, plus it depends on how high the blinds are.

 

[veri745]

Also, if the board is paired, run away. The odds of 2-pair or a set to draw to the boat destroy your pot odds.

 

[johnlines]

lets say i'm late position with 76 clubs.

the flop gives me a flush draw. i have $20 left and the pot = $20.
Middle player bets $20.
bonus for 888 poker
I'm getting 2:1 to call which is 33.3%.
the odds of a flush hitting by the river = 9outs x 4 = 36%

so i basically have the odds to call (close enuf)?

As others already pointed out you have the odds to call but it's quite risky. That's where analyzing other players comes in.

 

[manly]

This.

Your flush is probably good against whoever is making the $20 bet. It's the number of other players in the pot that would be the main concern.



Your actual odds to hit the flush are 1 - ((1 - 9/47) * (1 - 9/46)) = 34.9%, much closer to the 33.3% pot odds you're getting than your estimated 36%

1.1 > 1.6 ?

There's not much risk here, he's all in for $20. Either he draws out and wins the pot, or he busts. Personally I don't play any 2 suited, but if you do, why would you shut down when you "hit" the flop?

You guys have mentioned a couple reasons; firstly, if the board is paired and the OP is up against a set, his winning odds are reduced to about 25%. But does someone who flopped a set bet the pot to protect his hand? That depends on the bettor and the rest of the players in the hand.

As for facing a bigger flush draw, that's certainly possible depending on the table, but I think the statistical odds aren't very high even for a full table.

The way the OP estimated his winning odds is perfectly fine, # outs x 4 on the flop or # outs x 2 on the turn. It's way easier than the precise methods that are impractical at the table. The real question is if he has 9 full outs, fewer in the couple bad scenarios, or additional backdoor outs if he's up against just a pair.