Pick an NCAA Div 1-A College football rating system - results posted

[sciencewhiz]

Everyone likes to complain about the College Football polls, or the BCS. dullard used to do his own rating system, but I think I saw he was too busy to keep that up.

I'm posting several different existing rating systems. Pick the one you think is closest to reality. I'll name each one in a few days.

Feel free to post your own rankings as well (even if you just pull them out of your ass). I've been voting in a top 25 poll for a mailing list I subscribe to for the past few years, and it's hard. This year is especially hard.

Option 1 - Average of 4 BCS computers (Billingsley, Colley, Massey, and Sagarin): http://tellshowbcs.com/CP.html
1 LSU 6-0
2 South Florida 5-0
3 Ohio State 6-0
4 California 5-0
5 South Carolina 5-1
6 Boston College 6-0
7 Arizona St 6-0
8 Missouri 5-0
9 Illinois 5-1
10 Virginia Tech 5-1
11 West Virginia 5-1
12 Cincinnati 6-0
13 Oregon 4-1
14 Kentucky 5-1
15 Auburn 4-2
16 Florida 4-2
17 Kansas 5-0
18 Wisconsin 5-1
19 Southern California 4-1
20 Oklahoma 5-1
21 Florida St 4-1
22 Purdue 5-1
23 Virginia 5-1
24 Connecticut 5-0
25 Maryland 4-2

Option 2 - AP Poll: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankings?pollId=1
1. LSU 6-0
2. California 5-0
3. Ohio State 6-0
4. Boston College 6-0
5. South Florida 5-0
6. Oklahoma 5-1
7. South Carolina 5-1
8. West Virginia 5-1
9. Oregon 4-1
10. USC 4-1
11. Missouri 5-0
12. Virginia Tech 5-1
13. Florida 4-2
14. Arizona State 6-0
15. Cincinnati 6-0
16. Hawaii 6-0
17. Kentucky 5-1
18. Illinois 5-1
19. Wisconsin 5-1
20. Kansas 5-0
21. Florida State 4-1
22. Auburn 4-2
23. Texas 4-2
24. Georgia 4-2
25. Tennessee 3-2

Option 3 - BCS Ratings: http://tellshowbcs.com/bcsc.html
1 LSU 6-0
2 Ohio State 6-0
3 California 5-0
4 Boston College 6-0
5 South Florida 5-0
6 South Carolina 5-1
7 Missouri 5-0
8 West Virginia 5-1
9 Virginia Tech 5-1
10 Arizona St 6-0
11 Oklahoma 5-1
12 Oregon 4-1
13 Southern California 4-1
14 Florida 4-2
15 Illinois 5-1
16 Cincinnati 6-0
17 Wisconsin 5-1
18 Kentucky 5-1
19 Hawaii 6-0
20 Kansas 5-0
21 Auburn 4-2
22 Connecticut 5-0
23 Florida St 4-1
24 Purdue 5-1
25 Texas 4-2

Option 4 - Coleman's MinV: http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm
1 LSU
2 Kansas
3 California
4 Oregon
5 South Florida
6 West Virginia
7 Connecticut
8 Ohio State
8 South Carolina
10 Mississippi St
11 Auburn
12 Florida
13 Arizona St
14 Kentucky
15 Cincinnati
16 Boston College
17 Tennessee
18t Georgia
18t Missouri
20 Kansas St
21 Illinois
22 UCLA
23 Purdue
24 Virginia Tech
25 Michigan

Option 5 - Sagarin's Rating (non-bcs): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm
1 LSU
2 Ohio State
3 Oklahoma
4 West Virginia
5 Arizona State
6 California
7 Southern California
8 Oregon
9 Florida
10 South Florida
11 Cincinnati
12 Auburn
13 Kansas
14 Boston College
15 Missouri
16 South Carolina
17 Virginia Tech
18 UCLA
19 Connecticut
20 Florida State
21 Boise State
22 Purdue
23 Kentucky
24 Georgia
25 Tennessee

Option 6 Massey College Football Ranking Comparison: http://mratings.com/cf/compare.htm
1 LSU 6-0
2 Ohio St 6-0
3 California 5-0
4 South Florida 5-0
5 Missouri 5-0
6 Arizona St 6-0
7 Boston College 6-0
8 South Carolina 5-1
9 Cincinnati 6-0
10 Oregon 4-1
11 West Virginia 5-1
12 Kansas 5-0
13 Oklahoma 5-1
14 Florida 4-2
15 Illinois 5-1
16 Auburn 4-2
17 Virginia Tech 5-1
18 Kentucky 5-1
19 USC 4-1
20 Connecticut 5-0
21 Florida St 4-1
22 Purdue 5-1
23 Wisconsin 5-1
24 Georgia 4-2
25 Boise St 4-1

Edit 10/12: added in the ranking systems.

 

[Dedpuhl]

I like Option 4 based on the fact that USC isn't ranked...

 

[BigJ]

::looks at option 1::
::sees Maryland ranked::

Option 1 all the way!

 

[Jawo]

I think I know what you did, but it will be interesting to hear what people say.... There is no way in the world USF is the #2 team, they struggled against UCF last weekend and only beat two good teams. I would chose option 3, but I believe Cal is better than Ohio State. How can UCLA be ranked after losing to ND and having a rather lousy season?

 

[Miramonti]

I like #3 for balance.

 

[JujuFish]

I chose #3.

 

[rocadelpunk]

i like 3,5,6

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: Jawo
There is no way in the world USF is the #2 team, they struggled against UCF last weekend and only beat two good teams.

They beat Florida Atlantic last week, and play UCF this week.

The two good teams they beat are as good as any one else's good teams. Only LSU, USF, Cal, and Missouri have beaten a 1 loss team and a 2 loss team. LSU is clearly #1 having beaten 2 one loss teams and a great 2 loss team, but after that, you can't deny USF on the criteria of the two best opponents.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: jjsole
I like #3 for balance.

What makes #3 balanced? Are you talking about in how different conferences are ranked, or something else?

 

[Whisper]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

Originally posted by: Jawo
There is no way in the world USF is the #2 team, they struggled against UCF last weekend and only beat two good teams.

They beat Florida Atlantic last week, and play UCF this week.

The two good teams they beat are as good as any one else's good teams. Only LSU, USF, Cal, and Missouri have beaten a 1 loss team and a 2 loss team. LSU is clearly #1 having beaten 2 one loss teams and a great 2 loss team, but after that, you can't deny USF on the criteria of the two best opponents.

I still personally think Ohio State, and possibly Cal, are better teams than USF. Don't get me wrong, South Florida is definitely good, but I don't know if they're top 3 good.

That being said, LSU is #1 in of all the above options, so I'd be happy with any of em...

 

[bGIveNs33]

I like #2

All the others have some serious mistake in them-

#1-USF over OSU... nope
#3- 2nd best, by a long shot. Cal>OSU and FSU is higher in #2(cough, homer pick)
#4- Kansas, enough said
5#-UWV=#4 and USF#10... =brain asplodes
6#-Missouri was too high, Auburn way too high... 3rd best.

 

[Turfzilla]

Number 2 is your best shot, but give it a couple weeks and Illinois will keep climbing. They easily could be 6-0. Lost to Mizzou in week 1. That team is tough, and hungry!! Back to back wins against Penn St. and fr. #5 Wisc.

SFU is a little high IMO. Kansas? and since when does a 3-2 team crack the top 25? (Tenn)


Good list though, for the most part!

Cheers!

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: Turfzilla
and since when does a 3-2 team crack the top 25? (Tenn)

Well, they are behind a team they beat handily (Georgia) in 2, 5, and 6. The only one in which they are ahead of Georgia is 4. Neither are ranked in 1 and 3.

 

[HopJokey]

We need something like college basketball in college football (Bowl Subdivision of course); use the BCS or computers as a guideline for a large committee to select for a postseason tournament. Maybe have 6-10 teams in this playoff. I don't like how the rankings determine so much...

 

[MikeyLSU]

#2, none of them are perfect to what I think it should be.

Problems with #2 to me are:
South Carolina, USC, Hawaii are too high
UK, ASU, Oregon are too low

But still it is closer than the others.

 

[jme5343]

Option 4 is just stupid. Kansas as the #2 in the nation? They haven't even played a freakin' team other than KSU. 97th ranked schedule in the Bowl series.

 

[bGIveNs33]

Originally posted by: HopJokey
We need something like college basketball in college football (Bowl Subdivision of course); use the BCS or computers as a guideline for a large committee to select for a postseason tournament. Maybe have 6-10 teams in this playoff. I don't like how the rankings determine so much...

There already is a tournament... it's 13 games

Playoffs would ruin college football, it's the only major sport that demands perfection.

 

[HopJokey]

Originally posted by: bGIveNs33

Originally posted by: HopJokey
We need something like college basketball in college football (Bowl Subdivision of course); use the BCS or computers as a guideline for a large committee to select for a postseason tournament. Maybe have 6-10 teams in this playoff. I don't like how the rankings determine so much...

There already is a tournament... it's 13 games

Playoffs would ruin college football, it's the only major sport that demands perfection.

Yea but you usually end up in a situation where multiple teams at the end should have a shot at the title but only two play for it. This year is shaping up to be like that. And don't forget when Auburn a few years back; USC, etc.

In your example of perfection, the only team that was undefeated last year was Boise State, yet they were not the champs nor had a chance for the championship.

I believe there is a system with a playoff involved where the regular season would matter a lot. With a playoff of only a few teams (6-10) the regular season still is very meaningful because it would be difficult to qualify for the playoff.

 

[bGIveNs33]

It by no means is perfect. Auburn got burned without a doubt.... and USC won a national championship that year(split). I just don't see playoffs ever happening. Not without shortening the season to ~10 games. The loss of revenue right there would keep the NCAA from doing that. The only thing that could work, and we might see in the future is have a 4 team playoff. And have the winners meet a week later in one of the bowls. No matter what happens, there will always be controversy. The 5th and 6th place team will be bitching. I just don't want to get rid of the bowls. What will I do in the middle of December with out the insight.com bowl presented by cingular??

 

[HopJokey]

Originally posted by: bGIveNs33
It by no means is perfect. Auburn got burned without a doubt.... and USC won a national championship that year(split). I just don't see playoffs ever happening. Not without shortening the season to ~10 games. The loss of revenue right there would keep the NCAA from doing that. The only thing that could work, and we might see in the future is have a 4 team playoff. And have the winners meet a week later in one of the bowls. No matter what happens, there will always be controversy. The 5th and 6th place team will be bitching. I just don't want to get rid of the bowls. What will I do in the middle of December with out the insight.com bowl presented by cingular??

You can still have those meaningless bowls with the teams that did not make the playoffs. Right now there is a dichotomy between the BCS bowls and the "other" bowls. So you can still have the insight.com bowl, etc.

Yes you always have fringe teams being left out, but I believe it is a much fairer system to have a 6-10 team playoff. Top flight teams would not be left out. Undefeated teams would most likely not be left out (unless someone schedules like 8-10 D2 and D1-AA teams).

I believe a three week playoff would be even bigger $$$ for the schools. The only roadblock is the power conferences who don't want the money spread out. Imagine the Boise State upset of last year, but having it happen in the first round of a playoff. It would have been even greater 10x in the context of a playoff system. A playoff would combine the money that the current bowl system generates with the money/ratings of what the NCAA Mens D1 Basketball tournament brings. Can you imagine the size of the TV contract for a potential football tournament?

 

[PepePeru]

a huge WTF @ option 4.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

Originally posted by: jjsole
I like #3 for balance.

What makes #3 balanced? Are you talking about in how different conferences are ranked, or something else?

Illinois isn't too high, USC isn't too low. Of what I'm familiar with, which probably isn't a lot, the rest seemed ok.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: HopJokey

You can still have those meaningless bowls with the teams that did not make the playoffs. Right now there is a dichotomy between the BCS bowls and the "other" bowls. So you can still have the insight.com bowl, etc.

The only reason the post-season NIT tournament still exists in college basketball is because it runs off the profits of the pre-season NIT tournament. There isn't enough revenue for it to keep going on its own. If College Football went to a playoff format, the same thing would happen to the bowls that were left out, and they would die.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Discussion has died down, so here is the breakdown:

Option 4, 2 votes: Coleman's MinV. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

I think this was universally the most hated.

MinV generates a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated.

For example, the top 3 are all undefeated, and #4 Oregon is behind the team it lost to. #5 USF is undefeated, and #6 WVU is right behind USF having lost to them. Ohio State is undefeated, and South Carolina is behind LSU. #10 Mississippi St is behind LSU and South Carolina, and Auburn is behind USF & Mississippi St. The first time you have someone ranked ahead of someone they lost to is #23 UCLA (ahead of Utah and Notre Dame). In total, for all 304 Division 1-A games, only for 5 games is the team that lost ahead of the team that won.

Option 5, 2 votes: Jeff Sagarin. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm
He uses Margin of Victory and Schedule Strength in a computer formula to determine the best team.

Option 6, 3 votes: Massey College Football Ranking Comparison: http://mratings.com/cf/compare.htm

This is a combination of around 100 different ranking systems, computers, humans polls, etc.

Option 1, 4 votes: Average of 4 BCS computers (Billingsley, Colley, Massey, and Sagarin): http://tellshowbcs.com/CP.html

These 4 computers do not use Margin of Victory in their rankings. I was somewhat suprised that it was this high.

Option 3, 5 votes: BCS Ratings: http://tellshowbcs.com/bcsc.html

I'm sure everyone knows about the BCS Ratings by now, it's what choses the two teams for the national championship game. It's formula is (right now) 2/3 human polls (Coaches and Harris) and 1/3 computer ratings (option 1).

Option 2, 8 votes: AP Poll: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankings?pollId=1

In my mind, the sportswriters do a better job then coaches or former players/boosters (Harris poll). It's obviously what most of us like as well.