Phones on a decline too with -1.7%.

[ShintaiDK]

As expected, the amount of phones sold declines too:
http://vr-zone.com/articles/mobile-phone-sales-down-1.7-percent-in-2012/18964.html

It also explains why ARM as a segment is going backwards. While the average phone ASP increases due to higher priced smartphones with incredible margins, the actual volume declines.

 

[2is]

Not surprising to me. The improvements being made to phones now seems to be very incremental for the most part, and just as with PC's, there's very little in terms of software out there that require the latest/greatest.

 

[krumme]

Yet tons of investing in new fabs and capacity.

Someone is playing poker with your pension funds !

 

[OBLAMA2009]

it probably has to do with the fact that everyone who wants a phone has one at this point and people are only able to get a new phone every 2 years so theres no way to grow sales at this point. phones arent like computers, youre only allowed to have one at a time so they cant sell you multiple phones based on different form factors/features

 

[Hulk]

it probably has to do with the fact that everyone who wants a phone has one at this point and people are only able to get a new phone every 2 years so theres no way to grow sales at this point. phones arent like computers, youre only allowed to have one at a time so they cant sell you multiple phones based on different form factors/features

The two year upgrade cycle the carriers have pretty much imposed on the average consumer is a good point you made. Sure there are people that will go out and spend $500+ to have the latest and greatest as soon as it comes out, but most people will wait until their contract expires and then get a reasonably priced newer model.

In fact, current smartphones are so good from a processor and display point of view that many people, like myself might have a problem buying a new phone to replace my S3 when I'm due in 23 months.

Finally, let's face it. $500 for a current phone is an absolute rip off. You can get a decent laptop that has much more hardware and software for less. But as always the carriers have their scam that is easy to sell. They tell you that they "buy" the phone for $500 an sell it to you at a loss and then make their money on the contract. Yeah right. They make about $350 on the phone AND the monthly service.

 

[ShintaiDK]

The average smartphones life something like 18 months.

 

[dma0991]

Probably phones/tablets have already reached their saturation point. It has reached a point where consumers believe it is "good enough" without compromising their wallets.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Smartphones are still on the rise. But they simply replace older phones and the segment is shrinking.

It could be compared to say that x86 shipments are good, since Intel sells more Xeons. Unfortunately they sell alittle less laptop chips and alot less desktop chips.

People are saving up money instead of buying these days.

 

[2is]

I think fully featured tablets (like the surface pro) is going to be the next big thing, but they still need to mature a bit. Still too heavy/bulky with not enough run-time. I really wish the big dogs like Apple, Samsung, Google, Intel, etc would invest in some new battery technology with higher power density than current crop of lithium based batteries.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

I think fully featured tablets (like the surface pro) is going to be the next big thing, but they still need to mature a bit. Still too heavy/bulky with not enough run-time. I really wish the big dogs like Apple, Samsung, Google, Intel, etc would invest in some new battery technology with higher power density than current crop of lithium based batteries.

i dont. i think they are going to be a big fat fail. the pc industry is trying to raise asp's with ultrathins and tablets, but most people wont spend that kind of money ($900) on a pc at this point

 

[2is]

With maturity, comes lower price. 15" laptops weren't always $300 either.

 

[pm]

On thing that I don't see anyone mentioning is the bigger picture - which is that 2012 was not a great year for business anywhere except maybe the US where it was only decent.

The global semiconductor market in 2012 shrank 3.2% from 2011. The EU is having issues, China had a rough 2012, Brazil is struggling and Japan's economy continued it's long-running issues.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2027062/semiconductor-industry-to-recover-this-year.html

I see people predicting industry trends based on the 2011 results, but it's possible - in fact, I would argue that it's likely - that at least some of the trends were caused by macroeconomic issues more than technological or consumer reasons. In other words, I'd wait for the end of 2013 before I'd call anything a trend...

 

[ShintaiDK]

On thing that I don't see anyone mentioning is the bigger picture - which is that 2012 was not a great year for business anywhere except maybe the US where it was only decent.

The global semiconductor market in 2012 shrank 3.2% from 2011. The EU is having issues, China had a rough 2011, Brazil is struggling and Japan's economy continued it's long-running issues.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2027062/semiconductor-industry-to-recover-this-year.html

I see people predicting industry trends based on the 2011 results, but it's possible - in fact, I would argue that it's likely - that at least some of the trends were caused by macroeconomic issues more than technological or consumer reasons. In other words, I'd wait for the end of 2013 before I'd call anything a trend...

We can see it directly here in Denmark. Since we got numbers on about everything. The average bank account savings in 2012 was around 25% higher than in 2007. Or something around 140 billion $ total. And 2012 was a big jump. Inflation and price index have changed around 10% in the same timeframe.

So if we use alittle rough math, in Denmark alone we are behind the spending curve with 15-20 billion $.

People simply sit on their money.

 

[Genx87]

Yet tons of investing in new fabs and capacity.

Someone is playing poker with your pension funds !

The OP seems to have left this information out.

At the same time, smartphones continued to dominate the market, with record sales of 207.7 million units in the fourth quarter, a 38.3 percent increase year-on-year.

Read more: http://vr-zone.com/articles/mobile-phone-sales-down-1.7-percent-in-2012/18964.html#ixzz2Kv2pmplE

With increases like that year on year. There is little surprise why they are investing in FAB capacity. Smartphones only represent a little over 10% of the market and are increasing by 30-40% per year.

 

[ShintaiDK]

You might want to note post 8.

They are investing in fabs because they have to. Those that dont invest dies first.

The segment is still shrinking.

 

[Obsoleet]

Now if we can get more Ubuntu ARM devices, instead of these Chromebooks.. I'll be able to abandon Intel completely.

Let's getem, ARM!

 

[SPBHM]

Now if we can get more Ubuntu ARM devices, instead of these Chromebooks.. I'll be able to abandon Intel completely.

Let's getem, ARM!

I don't think what's holding ARM is software to compete with Intel on PCs...
if you are happy with the performance that the best current ARM device can deliver, probably a Celeron G460 (using intel graphics) is overkill for your needs!?


still, as the OP I see a lot of people upgrading their phones to some nicer super expensive (compared to the cheap things from a few years back) smartphone...

 

[krumme]

You might want to note post 8.

They are investing in fabs because they have to. Those that dont invest dies first.

The segment is still shrinking.

I dont know. The dies needed for smartphones is nothing compared to typical desktop.
Most smartphones will be powered by dual core A7, that hardly takes any capacity at all.

I dont think the mobile user get the benefit of more power like us desktop users have.

The interests and money is going elsewhere, like new sensor tech., screens..., and espec. software. And i think its pretty much reflected in share price for the big players. Qualcomm having same market cap as Intel. Things is changing.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I dont know. The dies needed for smartphones is nothing compared to typical desktop.
Most smartphones will be powered by dual core A7, that hardly takes any capacity at all.

I dont think the mobile user get the benefit of more power like us desktop users have.

The interests and money is going elsewhere, like new sensor tech., screens..., and espec. software. And i think its pretty much reflected in share price for the big players. Qualcomm having same market cap as Intel. Things is changing.

A chip contain much more than just the cores. The dualcore A6 for example is ~97mm2. The A6X is ~123mm2. (Thats bigger than IB dualcores.)

 

[Genx87]

You might want to note post 8.

They are investing in fabs because they have to. Those that dont invest dies first.

The segment is still shrinking.

Your link states they are expecting the entire segment to grow by 200 million units in 2013.

 

[krumme]

A chip contain much more than just the cores. The dualcore A6 for example is ~97mm2. The A6X is ~123mm2. (Thats bigger than IB dualcores.)

A desktop contain much more than just the cpu.
The non apu parts will stagnate for sure, and your example of extreme gpu heavy parts is way off the norm.
The depreciation will be steeper. The question is, will the benefit for the consumer outweight that.
Intels business model is obviously very weak compared to TSMC here. And its very clearly reflected in share price.

 

[T9D]

Some of the biggest phone companies are considering no longer subsidizing phones. If that happens the phone industry is going to totally fall off a cliff.

 

[Arkaign]

Some of the biggest phone companies are considering no longer subsidizing phones. If that happens the phone industry is going to totally fall off a cliff.

Young people are tards, I swear. I know because I was a tard when I was young, hahah.

I have a friend, he's 22 I think, doesn't make much money. He has a beat-to-shit car that I just helped him do timing belt/water pump/valve cover gasket/etc on, is living with a mass murderer for a roommate instead of having his own place, and has zero savings.

He used to have T-mobile with some subsidized phone, but he messed the phone up with no insurance and then didn't pay his bill for his committment, so bad credits there. So time comes he gets some bucks together, and what does he do?

He goes out and gets an iPhone5 from SPRINT. I had warned him about Sprint and the whole subsidized phone scam. He thinks his bill is going to be just the $74.99 or whatever they told him (unlimited most things + data and whatever else they tack on). I know from experience that if one of those big phone companies tells you $XX will be your bill, to expect it to be a good %% larger. Not to mention that he has no reason to buy an iPhone5. He watches youtube videos and texts, with an occassional phone call. That's it. There are all kinds of alternatives that are much less expensive, and a cheap $100 android (I have one now) does everything you could want in a phone. I have a phone that does 3G/4G/BlueTooth/Front+Rear Camera/WiFi/Android 4.something/etc, with an unlimited data + 4G plan that I'm paying $35/mo for. If I lose my phone, big whoop, I can either get by with a $20 phone if I want, or buy a $100-$150 phone just as good or better than what I already have.

Even if he's only paying $50/mo more than I am for it, he's tied in a 2-year contract. That's $1,200 over two years that he's flushing down the toilet just for a phone he's probably going to destroy in short order just like his last 3-4 phones.

That's my long old-man rant. I think Smartphones will definitely retract in ASP, as more people realize that walking around with a $500+ phone is dumb, unless you just have heaps of money to burn, or truly use tons of processing power. $100-$150 phones have gotten so good at the basics like web browsing/youtube/navigation/etc, that I don't see the point for most people.

 

[2is]

Agree with the above. I'm an iPhone user and typically skip a generation, last phone was iPhone 4, current one a iPhone 5 (skipped 4s). LTE was the main factor for me, if it weren't for that feature I could have held on to the 4. Now that I have it, I foresee myself keeping the 5 for quite sometime unless something truly remarkable comes out.

 

[zephyrprime]

It's saturation and maturation. Everyone has a smartphone now and smartphones have adequate performance now. When smartphones first came out, they were grossly underpowered and even the interface was slow and laggy let alone the performance in intensive apps. Now that's not the case anymore. The devices have become more powerful.