Peter King is bad at math.

[chuckywang]

From his latest Monday Morning Quarterback article where he basically blasts Belichick on his decision:

Two things had to factor in here. One: Belichick didn't want to give Manning the ball with two minutes to go; he'd just seen Manning take the Colts 79 yards in six plays for a touchdown. Two: He trusted Brady to get two yards. Let's place the odds of Brady getting two yards at 60, 65 percent. The odds of Manning going 72 yards to score a touchdown in less than two minutes ... that's maybe 35 percent.

So by his calculations, if the Pats punt, they win 65% of the time. If the Pats go for it, they win 65% of the time. That's a wash. However, if the Pats go for it and fail, they still get a chance to win by stopping the Colts on a short field. As long as that percentage is > 0%, by King's own numbers, Belichick made the right decision.

 

[GodlessAstronomer]

I don't know (or care) who that is but from what I skimmed of the OP he's involved in the sports industry, so I'm going to go with: well duh! Sports people are generally not smart.

 

[ElFenix]

you should post that comment on the article, maybe?

 

[fustercluck]

you should post that comment on the article, maybe?

hehe, yeah. Here's a more mathematical explanation: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html