Perhaps Obama's convention bounce isn't so transient...

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
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"By all accounts (via public and private polls) it appears Obama enjoyed about a 5 point bounce after Denver.
Can McCain make that back? We'll see.
Almost all of Obama's bounce came from undecided Democrats."
Link

Obviously, they could be later swayed by McCain or Palin to alter their vote, but it seems like his convention biography / speech made a lot of people comfortable to come off the sidelines and commit, at least for now, to Obama.


The Poblano Effect: http://www.burntorangereport.c...wDiary.do?diaryId=5780

 

nakedfrog

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Apr 3, 2001
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I just overheard a coworker saying that before Palin's speech, some of his long-time Democratic friends had been leaning towards McCain, but not any more. Purely anecdotal, of course. I was just walking by and didn't catch any of the rest of the conversation.
 

jonks

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Feb 7, 2005
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Originally posted by: nakedfrog
I just overheard a coworker saying that before Palin's speech, some of his long-time Democratic friends had been leaning towards McCain, but not any more. Purely anecdotal, of course. I was just walking by and didn't catch any of the rest of the conversation.

Well I overheard Chuck Todd, Mike Murphy and Peggy Noonan say almost the same thing so... :)
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
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www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: nakedfrog
I just overheard a coworker saying that before Palin's speech, some of his long-time Democratic friends had been leaning towards McCain, but not any more. Purely anecdotal, of course. I was just walking by and didn't catch any of the rest of the conversation.

Yeah, I heard the same thing from people... except now they aren't just "leaning towards" but are in full support of a McCain/Palin ticket.

:shrug:

damn wishywashy voters :p
 

mshan

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Nov 16, 2004
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I think PJ had previously linked a Rasmussen Reports survey saying that 40% of Hillary Clinton's supporters were telling pollsters they either were unsure or wouldn't vote for Obama.

A posting over at FiveThirtyEight immediately after the Democratic Primary formally closed said that 20% of Hillary Clinton's supporters wouldn't support Obama and that number is historically been 10%.

I suspect these previously undecided voters were probably that 20% uncommitted (low hanging fruit), not the 20% who said they weren't going to vote for Obama.

9/10 Republicans had already returned to the base even before the announcement of Palin, so it will be interesting to see where new supporters for a permanent McCain bounce are going to come from.

 

lupi

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Apr 8, 2001
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Originally posted by: mshan
I think PJ had previously linked a Rasmussen Reports survey saying that 40% of Hillary Clinton's supporters were telling pollsters they either were unsure or wouldn't vote for Obama.



ya got it wrong
 

QED

Diamond Member
Dec 16, 2005
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For what it's worth, the latest CBS News poll has the race down to a dead-heat: Obama 42%, McCain 42%.
This is a change from the 8% advantage Obama had the same time last week.

Even more troubling for Obama might be this: just 42% of independents feel that Obama is more experienced
than Palin to be President, versus 37% of independents who believe Palin is the more qualified choice. This
poll was mostly finished BEFORE Palin gave her speech last night, so it'd be interesting to see if those numbers
change at all in the next few days.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...olls/main4416798.shtml
 

mshan

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Nov 16, 2004
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Obama pretty much already has 264 electoral votes locked up (Kerry 04 states and Iowa and New Mexico).

He does need to play defense in Michigan, but Virginia alone, or Colorado alone will put him over the top.

Says nothing about Ohio (dead heat), and whether Biden / Palin has put Florida into play.

Keep drinking the cool aid, as others like to say.

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Originally posted by: QED
For what it's worth, the latest CBS News poll has the race down to a dead-heat: Obama 42%, McCain 42%.
This is a change from the 8% advantage Obama had the same time last week.

Even more troubling for Obama might be this: just 42% of independents feel that Obama is more experienced
than Palin to be President, versus 37% of independents who believe Palin is the more qualified choice. This
poll was mostly finished BEFORE Palin gave her speech last night, so it'd be interesting to see if those numbers
change at all in the next few days.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...olls/main4416798.shtml

That poll appears to be an outlier, with the other polls conducted during that time giving Obama a 5-8 point lead, outside of the margin of error.
 

mshan

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Nov 16, 2004
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...bel/pollster%20ratings

This says nothing about "bias" of any given pollster, and how leading their questions may be:

"But, the other big group of losers are those polls associated with major news organizations. LAT (via Bloomberg), CNN (via Opinion Research) and FOX (via Opinion Dynamics) have all underperformed. So has Gallup, which had some bad misses (like Kerry taking Ohio and Florida by comfortable margins) in 2004." Pollster Ratings FAQ