Peak Oil Production

[Rogodin2]

I've been doing a little research on this subject, so has the US military and the Department of Energy.

Some are saying we've reached peak production, the optimistic view is that we have until 2015.

I'm not going to go doomsday, but I am going to buy that chunk of land, build my off-the-grid home 🙂, and plant a big garden.



I'm going to link a forum as well.
Peak Oil Forum

Rogo

 

[zephyrprime]

We may have very well peaked on the light crude but I think we will simply develop heavy crude to compensate. Oil will be expensive however.

And Saudi Arabia recently said that it was withholding some production because there weren't enough buyers so maybe we haven't even exhausted light crude production.

 

[Rogodin2]

I read about Saudi Arabia holding back some oil from the free market (the true motive isn't know, ostensibly it's 'no buyers', but that doesn't make sense)-but there is a very scary model called 'Net Oil' that calculates the energy cost of extracting/refining all the availble oil reserves in the world.

Here's the link to the thread:

Net Oil

Rogo

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
I read about Saudi Arabia holding back some oil from the free market (the true motive isn't know, ostensibly it's 'no buyers', but that doesn't make sense)-but there is a very scary model called 'Net Oil' that calculates the energy cost of extracting/refining all the availble oil reserves in the world.

Here's the link to the thread:

Net Oil

Rogo

And as oil gets more expensive, we will do things differently.There has already been a shift in consumer auto buying habits.

 

[Rogodin2]

There are some indicators like major airlines across the world declaring bankruptcy (Delta, United, Jarsko...) because of their inablility to lock down contract prices for aviation fuel, and the US military making preperations for a decrease in crude production.

What are all of your plans?

Rogo

 

[alchemize]

That's the nice thing about capitalism. It will adapt.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
I read about Saudi Arabia holding back some oil from the free market (the true motive isn't know, ostensibly it's 'no buyers', but that doesn't make sense)-but there is a very scary model called 'Net Oil' that calculates the energy cost of extracting/refining all the availble oil reserves in the world.

Here's the link to the thread:

Net Oil

Rogo

And as oil gets more expensive, we will do things differently.There has already been a shift in consumer auto buying habits.

And electrical generation. The market is the ultimate determiner.

 

[LegendKiller]

Peak oil is a farce intended to get people all worked up. There are so many other forms of oil in the world, from shale/sand oils to advanced extraction and even not taping sources which we know about. There are synthetics and even some researchers who think we can make oil.

Oil will become more expensive, which makes more expensive oil economic. Add to that the natural movement towards something cheaper (alt fuels/energy), you will see oil extended out for some time.

You also have to remember that oil found and/or extracted is something that only happens when it needs to. When "peak" oil situations happened in the past, it was because it wasn't economical to find anything else, they were making enough on proven or tapped points.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
I read about Saudi Arabia holding back some oil

I'm sure they are doing the same thing as here, purposely shutting down wells.

I have seen them shut off personally here.

 

[Rogodin2]

The bell curves that I've linked to take into account the shale/sand extraction. The energy cost of extracting the oil is figured into these models-and the projection is even worse.

I'm not the paranoid type but some of this data is truly scary. I don't think it's a farce, but I also don't believe that we'll have a global economic crash in the next 5 years.

Rogo

 

[alien42]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Peak oil is a farce intended to get people all worked up. There are so many other forms of oil in the world, from shale/sand oils to advanced extraction and even not taping sources which we know about. There are synthetics and even some researchers who think we can make oil.

Oil will become more expensive, which makes more expensive oil economic. Add to that the natural movement towards something cheaper (alt fuels/energy), you will see oil extended out for some time.

You also have to remember that oil found and/or extracted is something that only happens when it needs to. When "peak" oil situations happened in the past, it was because it wasn't economical to find anything else, they were making enough on proven or tapped points.

you might also want to consider chinas affect in the next couple of decades.

 

[daniel49]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
I've been doing a little research on this subject, so has the US military and the Department of Energy.

Some are saying we've reached peak production, the optimistic view is that we have until 2015.

I'm not going to go doomsday, but I am going to buy that chunk of land, build my off-the-grid home 🙂, and plant a big garden.



I'm going to link a forum as well.
Peak Oil Forum

Rogo

Even if it were all bogus, which I do not believe.
Your making yourself less dependent upon it is not an unwise decision.
And in fact sounds like a simplier more satisfying lifestyle.🙂

 

[DealMonkey]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
And electrical generation. The market is the ultimate determiner.

Windfarms are starting to look pretty damned good right about now. Each tower/turbine has a maximum output of 1.5 MW. Anyone know how many houses that would power? From the figures in the article, I'm going to say around 550 houses? Now multiply that by 20 turbines. About 11,000 houses powered purely by wind. Not too shabby.

 

[Cerb]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Peak oil is a farce intended to get people all worked up. There are so many other forms of oil in the world, from shale/sand oils to advanced extraction and even not taping sources which we know about. There are synthetics and even some researchers who think we can make oil.

Oil will become more expensive, which makes more expensive oil economic. Add to that the natural movement towards something cheaper (alt fuels/energy), you will see oil extended out for some time.

You also have to remember that oil found and/or extracted is something that only happens when it needs to. When "peak" oil situations happened in the past, it was because it wasn't economical to find anything else, they were making enough on proven or tapped points.

You aught to read up on Peak Oil. Your second paragraph is the entire concept of it, yet you say you disagree with it. The problem isn't running out. It's running out of stuff that is cheap to find and extract, thus raising the price to look harder, and to extract from smaller sources.

Much like only recently getting hybrid cars (which is actually somewhat related to this), this is one of many problems that big businesses and politicians have made worse, because of it being more advantagious to deny R&D in the short term for profit in the short term; rather than go for long-term gains, yet risk short-term problems. Sorry about the massive sentence...

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
And electrical generation. The market is the ultimate determiner.

Windfarms are starting to look pretty damned good right about now. Each tower/turbine has a maximum output of 1.5 MW. Anyone know how many houses that would power? From the figures in the article, I'm going to say around 550 houses? Now multiply that by 20 turbines. About 11,000 houses powered purely by wind. Not too shabby.

Actually 1.5MW is low end now. 3.6MW available now.

 

[Stunt]

My question to liberals is...
If government subsidized oil prices or other measures were taken to reduce the price of oil even as supplies are being depleted...
...do you think hybrids would be available and in demand? Do you think 3.6MW turbines would be available?

While oil prices are higher than they were, there is a positive...

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: DealMonkey

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
And electrical generation. The market is the ultimate determiner.

Windfarms are starting to look pretty damned good right about now. Each tower/turbine has a maximum output of 1.5 MW. Anyone know how many houses that would power? From the figures in the article, I'm going to say around 550 houses? Now multiply that by 20 turbines. About 11,000 houses powered purely by wind. Not too shabby.

Actually 1.5MW is low end now. 3.6MW available now.

Anyone know the cost of a 1.5 MW unit.

I'm currently installing a 100 foot Communications tower and would rather make it a dual tower.

 

[Rogodin2]

Hm, I live in a class 4 wind rated area and I looked into commercial wind generators-and off the top of my head I believe I found a 1.6mw unit (the tower was included) used for $40000.

Rogo

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
I've been doing a little research on this subject, so has the US military and the Department of Energy.

Some are saying we've reached peak production, the optimistic view is that we have until 2015.

I'm not going to go doomsday, but I am going to buy that chunk of land, build my off-the-grid home 🙂, and plant a big garden.

:thumbsup:

We should all be so lucky in the future. One does wonder how the civilized world will respond to fuel shortages and overpopulation. My hope is to find a nice quiet out of the way corner as well.

 

[Zorba]

Originally posted by: Stunt
My question to liberals is...
If government subsidized oil prices or other measures were taken to reduce the price of oil even as supplies are being depleted...
...do you think hybrids would be available and in demand? Do you think 3.6MW turbines would be available?

While oil prices are higher than they were, there is a positive...

QFT... High oil prices is helping push conservation technology better than any law ever could have.

 

[boredhokie]

I read a lot of Jim Kunstler's writings on this topic; he envisons a nation of smaller, more concentrated cities interconected by rail. The auto nation is going to become extinct and along with it the 50 mile each way commutes that suburbia affords (costs?).

I also believe that a capitalistic society who's leaders don't pander to big oil (not gonna happen any time soon) will find great ways to make new energy.

The big question for me is, will the two balance themselves out? Will lower oil outputs combined with better alt tech ensure our current way of life? My money is on NO, at least in the form that the baby boomer marketing slugs sold to us growing up. I'm prepared to live a more simple lifestyle and am saving my money.

 

[desy]

You can ge the documentary 'The End of the Suburbs'
which goes throught the very proposals of more European type of cities
Problem with peak oil is there are no liquid replacements for it.
You can't fly a airplane on electricity, oil is just so darn handy.

So the solution is conservation coupled with alternative sources cause we may not go out in my lifetime, but I have kids and I would hope that their lives to be with as much promise as mine has been.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Cerb

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Peak oil is a farce intended to get people all worked up. There are so many other forms of oil in the world, from shale/sand oils to advanced extraction and even not taping sources which we know about. There are synthetics and even some researchers who think we can make oil.

Oil will become more expensive, which makes more expensive oil economic. Add to that the natural movement towards something cheaper (alt fuels/energy), you will see oil extended out for some time.

You also have to remember that oil found and/or extracted is something that only happens when it needs to. When "peak" oil situations happened in the past, it was because it wasn't economical to find anything else, they were making enough on proven or tapped points.

You aught to read up on Peak Oil. Your second paragraph is the entire concept of it, yet you say you disagree with it. The problem isn't running out. It's running out of stuff that is cheap to find and extract, thus raising the price to look harder, and to extract from smaller sources.

Much like only recently getting hybrid cars (which is actually somewhat related to this), this is one of many problems that big businesses and politicians have made worse, because of it being more advantagious to deny R&D in the short term for profit in the short term; rather than go for long-term gains, yet risk short-term problems. Sorry about the massive sentence...

From what I have read, Peak Oil assumes that oil consumption will decrease drastically with cost. This, I somewhat doubt. While more efficient means of travel will be sought, the oil will get more expensive, and people will purchase it. Many of the reserves aren't that much more expensive than the current level of oil.

if it becomes economically feasable to efficiently (and environmentally safe) to extract oil Shale/Sand, it will be somewhere in the $100/barrel mark. That is only a 50% increase from where we are today, meaning gas will be ~4.50. That isn't a *HUGE* leap for society, nor will it cause massive breakdowns in social structure or even the need for fossil fuels. Look at Europe and their artificial ~5 level. Their social structure seems to do quite fine.

Now, I would somewhat agree that cities will become more densely packed. However, given that the US is much more massive the Europe, and when you take europe as a whole, you will still see spread out cities and such.

All of this peak oil hysteria is nothing more than hooey. Economics places a cap on oil exploration and extraction, that cap is not very high and increases with each new change in supply or demand. It is not inelastic and will shift with societie's disire to pay more. If society does desire to pay less, then alternative means will be found to get energy.

However, society won't go out of control with price increases.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Rogodin2
Hm, I live in a class 4 wind rated area and I looked into commercial wind generators-and off the top of my head I believe I found a 1.6mw unit (the tower was included) used for $40000.

Rogo

Thank you sir.

Looks like I may be able to go with that :thumbsup:

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: boredhokie
I read a lot of Jim Kunstler's writings on this topic; he envisons a nation of smaller, more concentrated cities interconected by rail. The auto nation is going to become extinct and along with it the 50 mile each way commutes that suburbia affords (costs?).

I also believe that a capitalistic society who's leaders don't pander to big oil (not gonna happen any time soon) will find great ways to make new energy.

The big question for me is, will the two balance themselves out? Will lower oil outputs combined with better alt tech ensure our current way of life? My money is on NO, at least in the form that the baby boomer marketing slugs sold to us growing up. I'm prepared to live a more simple lifestyle and am saving my money.

A lot of this can happen wihtout the need for rails. We have the technology now to work from home. In the future the corporate landscape should change with the times and move parts of their company offsite.

I look at the people at my work and seriously 90% of what they do can be done from home through a VPN.

That will take x amount of people off the roads burning oil.