Peak oil enters mainstream discussion

lozina

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
11,711
8
81
Link

Is global oil production reaching a peak?

A few years ago only a handful of geologists and academics were considering such a possibility.

But now it appears even governments are taking a serious look at the subject.

The question is occupying more and more minds around the world.

It could happen soon.

A French government report on the global oil industry forecasts a possible peak in world production as early as 2013.

It is interesting how I'm hearing more and more about peak oil in mainstream media when only recently anyone bringing up the idea was quickly dubbed a fringe lunatic.
 

5LiterMustang

Senior member
Dec 8, 2002
531
0
0
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: lozina
Link

Is global oil production reaching a peak?

A few years ago only a handful of geologists and academics were considering such a possibility.

But now it appears even governments are taking a serious look at the subject.

The question is occupying more and more minds around the world.

It could happen soon.

A French government report on the global oil industry forecasts a possible peak in world production as early as 2013.

It is interesting how I'm hearing more and more about peak oil in mainstream media when only recently anyone bringing up the idea was quickly dubbed a fringe lunatic.

All I can say is welcome everyone to my "fringe lunatic" club where I am the Charter member :) :thumbsup:
 

Pantoot

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2002
1,764
30
91
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
All I can say is welcome everyone to my "fringe lunatic" club where I am the Charter member :) :thumbsup:

I think you can safely drop the "fringe". ;)
 

ExpertNovice

Senior member
Mar 4, 2005
939
0
0
Originally posted by: lozina
Link

Is global oil production reaching a peak?

A few years ago only a handful of geologists and academics were considering such a possibility.

But now it appears even governments are taking a serious look at the subject.

The question is occupying more and more minds around the world.

It could happen soon.

A French government report on the global oil industry forecasts a possible peak in world production as early as 2013.

It is interesting how I'm hearing more and more about peak oil in mainstream media when only recently anyone bringing up the idea was quickly dubbed a fringe lunatic.

It has only been recently that the mainstream media has been reporting this so many were not aware and many don't care.

The impact to our prices was first felt shortly after President Clinton helped the communist conversion of Venezuela. That was a great coup for him.

Of course for many years the Chinese has been importing more and more oil each year. It has been widely reported but not by the mainstream media. Of course, if Al Gore or John Kerry had become President you would hear a lot about how China is the reason for high gas prices. Worse, since Al Gore promised to tax the Automobile out of existence and John Kerry never stopped trying to raise gas taxes, we would probably be paying between $5 and $10 a gallon (the vaulted levels desired by the liberals during the days of President Carter).

PS. I'm glad to see that your signature backs up my statements over the past thirteen years. It will hopefully open some peoples eyes as to what is happening around the world with the New Way government supported by President Clinton in his early speeches.

The quote, of course, shows how dangerous the new world governments (U.N. and European Union in particular) are to the sovereignty of the U.S. All we need is another support of Fascism to be elected to office who would then create a Presidential treaty with the U.N. for us to be like them.... which is what all too many keep saying they want.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

Extracting the full reserves is impossible. Sea water is used to increase pressure and yield. There comes a point of diminishing returns.

Just ask yourself this, if the global demand for oil is increasing why isn't anyone building new refineries?
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
There are refineries being built, just not in the US. That NIMBY thing again.

Refinery Construction

Also, it appears bith China and India are having internal problems with hteir own oil production/refining. Both are either state-owned (India) or state governed pricing (China) which distorts the true market picture. By not allowing retail prices to rise to reflect the runup in wholesale crude prices, refinery construction is slowed as it is not profitable to bring on new projects.

This highlights another problem with socialist-based, government run enterprises. They rarely work efficiently in a capital market.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: BBond
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

Extracting the full reserves is impossible. Sea water is used to increase pressure and yield. There comes a point of diminishing returns.

Just ask yourself this, if the global demand for oil is increasing why isn't anyone building new refineries?

Same goes for stations. Show me them running out of gas.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
Originally posted by: dphantom
There are refineries being built, just not in the US. That NIMBY thing again.

Refinery Construction

Also, it appears bith China and India are having internal problems with hteir own oil production/refining. Both are either state-owned (India) or state governed pricing (China) which distorts the true market picture. By not allowing retail prices to rise to reflect the runup in wholesale crude prices, refinery construction is slowed as it is not profitable to bring on new projects.

This highlights another problem with socialist-based, government run enterprises. They rarely work efficiently in a capital market.

Did you read the article you posted?

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Key Asian refinery projects that would help ease a shortage of global capacity this year have run into delays as Indian and Chinese firms facing steep losses on domestic sales see little incentive to rush plans.

India's new Essar Oil refinery has been pushed back again, while a major new crude unit at PetroChina's Dalian plant will likely run at reduced rates into next year after a late-2005 start, a Reuters survey of expansion plans shows.

This means Asian plants will have added only about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of primary refining capacity by year's end, less than the 734,000 bpd expected in January.

More modest slippage in other projects has also pushed new capacity toward the end of this year, or from 2006 into 2007, keeping traders on edge over when the global refining industry will be able to restore a supply cushion to tight markets.

PetroChina appears set for technical completion of its 200,000-bpd crude distillation unit (CDU) at Dalian as expected by the end of this year, but it is likely to run below full capacity, a company official told Reuters.

Chinese refiners, saddled with negative margins for much of this year due to capped domestic sales prices, may be intentionally staggering new incremental capacity, said an analyst with a global investment bank, who declined to be named.

"Sinopec told us that they wanted to spread out the start-up dates, and to avoid the mistake made earlier this year with the two new naphtha crackers in China," the analyst said.

Ethylene prices spiralled down after Shanghai Secco Petrochemical Co. Ltd. -- a joint-venture between BP, Sinopec and Shanghai Petrochemical Co. -- started up its 900,000 tonne-per-year (tpy) cracker in the second quarter of this year.

BASF-Yangzi Petrochemical -- a joint-venture of Sinopec and Germany's BASF -- also commissioned its 600,000-tpy cracker at Nanjing during the period.

"Chinese refiners may not be in a hurry to bring onstream the new projects because of the price control on gasoline and diesel, as well as the current weak refining margins," said Victor Shum, an analyst with downstream consultancy Purvin and Gertz.

Chinese plants have also been given some breathing room by slower demand growth, which is estimated to come to only 6-7 percent this year, versus 15 percent last year, he added.

The construction delays threaten to prolong oil's two-year price rally, which lifted prices to another record above $67 a barrel, spurred in part by a shortage of new refining capacity able to meet stronger-than-expected demand growth.

Dealers are particularly anxious about supplies this winter, when Northern Hemisphere heating fuel use drives global consumption to its seasonal peak, and the delays will do little to ease their concerns.

INDIA FORCED TO IMPORT

India's mostly state-owned refiners have been hit by the lag in raising state-regulated domestic fuel prices versus soaring international crude costs.

India imports more than two-thirds of its crude oil requirements and has been forced to import low-sulphur fuels this year after refiners were unprepared for tighter specifications.

Indian Oil Corp.'s (IOC) new 120,000-bpd CDU at its Panipat refinery -- doubling capacity -- has been pushed from mid-year to October 2005, while Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd.'s CDU project at Bombay slipped from March to July, officials have said.

Essar Oil Ltd.'s oft-delayed new refinery will be completed by July next year, six months behind its initial target, the company said last month.

The delays come as companies engaged in building the multi-billion dollar facilities struggle to cope with demand for new plants, with many Asian refiners hoping to capitalise on strong margins after a near decade-long downturn.

"We don't have enough contractors and we don't have enough raw materials" to satisfy customer demand, Ryutaro Iwai, a senior official at Japan's JGC Corp., one of the world's five- biggest refinery construction contractors, told Reuters.

Caltex Australia Ltd., which operates nearly a third of the country's refining capacity, said last week it was seeking a three-month extension on meeting a Jan. 1 clean fuels deadline due to late arrivals of materials, equipment and reactors.

Other secondary unit upgrades are also running behind, including China's West Pacific Petrochemical Corp. (WEPEC) new 2 million-tpy diesel hydrotreating and fuel upgrading facilities at IOC and BPCL in India.

(Additional reporting by Felicia Loo in Singapore, Emma Graham-Harrison, Judy Hua in Beijing, Himangshu Watts in New Delhi and Jiwon Chung in Tokyo)

And add to the troubles in Asia over refinery expansion this fact, if and when they DO get those refineries up and running, they will be competing with us for that ever dwindling supply of O.I.L.

Not a very good scenario especially considering that the U.S. isn't investing in alternative energy and it might just be too late to do so now.
 

5LiterMustang

Senior member
Dec 8, 2002
531
0
0
Originally posted by: BBond
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

Extracting the full reserves is impossible. Sea water is used to increase pressure and yield. There comes a point of diminishing returns.

Just ask yourself this, if the global demand for oil is increasing why isn't anyone building new refineries?

actually as a general rule you get double from a well than whats known to be in it, using the very technique you mentioned. There are 1.3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in Saudi and 1.7 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in Canada...thats just two areas...venezuela and th erest of the mid east along with russia and undiscovered oil under the ocean basically means we still ahve plenty of oil. At current usage it would take 160 years to run through 5 trillion barrels, if consumption goes up FASTER than expected we'd use the reserves within 90 years. If it meets expectations it would take 110 years.

 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
Originally posted by: BBond
Originally posted by: dphantom
There are refineries being built, just not in the US. That NIMBY thing again.

Refinery Construction

Also, it appears bith China and India are having internal problems with hteir own oil production/refining. Both are either state-owned (India) or state governed pricing (China) which distorts the true market picture. By not allowing retail prices to rise to reflect the runup in wholesale crude prices, refinery construction is slowed as it is not profitable to bring on new projects.

This highlights another problem with socialist-based, government run enterprises. They rarely work efficiently in a capital market.

Did you read the article you posted?

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Key Asian refinery projects that would help ease a shortage of global capacity this year have run into delays as Indian and Chinese firms facing steep losses on domestic sales see little incentive to rush plans.

India's new Essar Oil refinery has been pushed back again, while a major new crude unit at PetroChina's Dalian plant will likely run at reduced rates into next year after a late-2005 start, a Reuters survey of expansion plans shows.

This means Asian plants will have added only about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of primary refining capacity by year's end, less than the 734,000 bpd expected in January.

More modest slippage in other projects has also pushed new capacity toward the end of this year, or from 2006 into 2007, keeping traders on edge over when the global refining industry will be able to restore a supply cushion to tight markets.

PetroChina appears set for technical completion of its 200,000-bpd crude distillation unit (CDU) at Dalian as expected by the end of this year, but it is likely to run below full capacity, a company official told Reuters.

Chinese refiners, saddled with negative margins for much of this year due to capped domestic sales prices, may be intentionally staggering new incremental capacity, said an analyst with a global investment bank, who declined to be named.

"Sinopec told us that they wanted to spread out the start-up dates, and to avoid the mistake made earlier this year with the two new naphtha crackers in China," the analyst said.

Ethylene prices spiralled down after Shanghai Secco Petrochemical Co. Ltd. -- a joint-venture between BP, Sinopec and Shanghai Petrochemical Co. -- started up its 900,000 tonne-per-year (tpy) cracker in the second quarter of this year.

BASF-Yangzi Petrochemical -- a joint-venture of Sinopec and Germany's BASF -- also commissioned its 600,000-tpy cracker at Nanjing during the period.

"Chinese refiners may not be in a hurry to bring onstream the new projects because of the price control on gasoline and diesel, as well as the current weak refining margins," said Victor Shum, an analyst with downstream consultancy Purvin and Gertz.

Chinese plants have also been given some breathing room by slower demand growth, which is estimated to come to only 6-7 percent this year, versus 15 percent last year, he added.

The construction delays threaten to prolong oil's two-year price rally, which lifted prices to another record above $67 a barrel, spurred in part by a shortage of new refining capacity able to meet stronger-than-expected demand growth.

Dealers are particularly anxious about supplies this winter, when Northern Hemisphere heating fuel use drives global consumption to its seasonal peak, and the delays will do little to ease their concerns.

INDIA FORCED TO IMPORT

India's mostly state-owned refiners have been hit by the lag in raising state-regulated domestic fuel prices versus soaring international crude costs.

India imports more than two-thirds of its crude oil requirements and has been forced to import low-sulphur fuels this year after refiners were unprepared for tighter specifications.

Indian Oil Corp.'s (IOC) new 120,000-bpd CDU at its Panipat refinery -- doubling capacity -- has been pushed from mid-year to October 2005, while Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd.'s CDU project at Bombay slipped from March to July, officials have said.

Essar Oil Ltd.'s oft-delayed new refinery will be completed by July next year, six months behind its initial target, the company said last month.

The delays come as companies engaged in building the multi-billion dollar facilities struggle to cope with demand for new plants, with many Asian refiners hoping to capitalise on strong margins after a near decade-long downturn.

"We don't have enough contractors and we don't have enough raw materials" to satisfy customer demand, Ryutaro Iwai, a senior official at Japan's JGC Corp., one of the world's five- biggest refinery construction contractors, told Reuters.

Caltex Australia Ltd., which operates nearly a third of the country's refining capacity, said last week it was seeking a three-month extension on meeting a Jan. 1 clean fuels deadline due to late arrivals of materials, equipment and reactors.

Other secondary unit upgrades are also running behind, including China's West Pacific Petrochemical Corp. (WEPEC) new 2 million-tpy diesel hydrotreating and fuel upgrading facilities at IOC and BPCL in India.

(Additional reporting by Felicia Loo in Singapore, Emma Graham-Harrison, Judy Hua in Beijing, Himangshu Watts in New Delhi and Jiwon Chung in Tokyo)

And add to the troubles in Asia over refinery expansion this fact, if and when they DO get those refineries up and running, they will be competing with us for that ever dwindling supply of O.I.L.

Not a very good scenario especially considering that the U.S. isn't investing in alternative energy and it might just be too late to do so now.

I did. What's your question or didn't you understand the article? It seemed pretty clear to me. Asia is building refineries, but in India/China specifically, are running into problems with their socialist based pricing structure which is slowing construction.

On the good side, at least there are refineries coming on line, albiet more slowly than expected.

The last 2 paras above deal only with upgrades to refinery's and some of the skilled workers/materials needed that are in short supply. The topic of the article is in para 1 of the article. When writing, one always places the subject of the thesis in paragraph 1. Eng 101.
 

homercles337

Diamond Member
Dec 29, 2004
6,340
3
71
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

This public service announcement comes courtesy of a V8 driving repug/neocon.
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
Originally posted by: homercles337
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

This public service announcement comes courtesy of a V8 driving repug/neocon.

:thumbsup:

Driving a gas guzzling boat for hours and hours and having a blast with my kids.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: homercles337
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

This public service announcement comes courtesy of a V8 driving repug/neocon.

:thumbsup:

Driving a gas guzzling boat for hours and hours and having a blast with my kids.

I'm sure the troops are all very happy to hear that they aren't dying in vain.
 

BBond

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
8,363
0
0
Originally posted by: dphantom

I did. What's your question or didn't you understand the article? It seemed pretty clear to me. Asia is building refineries, but in India/China specifically, are running into problems with their socialist based pricing structure which is slowing construction.

On the good side, at least there are refineries coming on line, albiet more slowly than expected.

The last 2 paras above deal only with upgrades to refinery's and some of the skilled workers/materials needed that are in short supply. The topic of the article is in para 1 of the article. When writing, one always places the subject of the thesis in paragraph 1. Eng 101.

Don't you get it? They're building refineries with their "socialist based pricing structure" that we can't afford to build here in the land of "free enterprise," and those refineries will be competing for the very same dwindling oil supplies that we need to survive (unless an alternative energy source is found.)
 

nergee

Senior member
Jan 25, 2000
843
0
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: BBond
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

Extracting the full reserves is impossible. Sea water is used to increase pressure and yield. There comes a point of diminishing returns.

Just ask yourself this, if the global demand for oil is increasing why isn't anyone building new refineries?

Same goes for stations. Show me them running out of gas.


Have to agree with you here...there is plenty of petrol to go around. This is the biggest
gouge the consumer has taken since the beginning of man......well. maybe not as bad as those Cabbage Patch Dolls or a holographic Charizard........................
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,550
38,248
136
Originally posted by: BBond
Originally posted by: dphantom

I did. What's your question or didn't you understand the article? It seemed pretty clear to me. Asia is building refineries, but in India/China specifically, are running into problems with their socialist based pricing structure which is slowing construction.

On the good side, at least there are refineries coming on line, albiet more slowly than expected.

The last 2 paras above deal only with upgrades to refinery's and some of the skilled workers/materials needed that are in short supply. The topic of the article is in para 1 of the article. When writing, one always places the subject of the thesis in paragraph 1. Eng 101.

Don't you get it? They're building refineries with their "socialist based pricing structure" that we can't afford to build here in the land of "free enterprise," and those refineries will be competing for the very same dwindling oil supplies that we need to survive (unless an alternative energy source is found.)

Coal liquefaction.

The US sits on 30% the known global coal reserves.
 

5LiterMustang

Senior member
Dec 8, 2002
531
0
0
Originally posted by: homercles337
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

This public service announcement comes courtesy of a V8 driving repug/neocon.

Uhhh no this comes from a person who works in the energy industry who is not a neocon...

I do drive a V8 but I get 20+mpg in the city and 25+ on the hwy...I'm a republican but dislike bush so make of that what you want

I hate it when idiots make up stereo types when in reality they dont have a clue who/what they're talking about. But nice try
 

Vadatajs

Diamond Member
Aug 28, 2001
3,475
0
0
Dammit, clicked reply without actually typing anything.


Anyway, Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) has given some very good presentations to the house on peak oil. The transcript of one I actually saw live on CSPAN is here.

Another one.

Finally a republican who doesn't get his facts from Rush and Rove.
 

alent1234

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2002
3,915
0
0
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Originally posted by: BBond
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Oil will at some point peak, as alternatives become available and cost effective. Peak Oil DOES NOT mean disaster nor does it mean our economy will suffer drastically. The talk about peak oil because we're running out is rubbish, it is that simple. There are 5.25 trillion barrels of known reserves in the world.

Extracting the full reserves is impossible. Sea water is used to increase pressure and yield. There comes a point of diminishing returns.

Just ask yourself this, if the global demand for oil is increasing why isn't anyone building new refineries?

actually as a general rule you get double from a well than whats known to be in it, using the very technique you mentioned. There are 1.3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in Saudi and 1.7 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in Canada...thats just two areas...venezuela and th erest of the mid east along with russia and undiscovered oil under the ocean basically means we still ahve plenty of oil. At current usage it would take 160 years to run through 5 trillion barrels, if consumption goes up FASTER than expected we'd use the reserves within 90 years. If it meets expectations it would take 110 years.



the trillions of barrels in known reserves can be doubled if you account for the canadian shale oil and other oil deposits in sand
 

5LiterMustang

Senior member
Dec 8, 2002
531
0
0
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Originally posted by: K1052
Coal liquefaction.

The US sits on 30% the known global coal reserves.

care to elaborate?



Coal can be turned into gas.

yeah I know that, I thought you said it could be turned into oil...I was like hmmm I hadn't heard that one yet...I read "American Gas and Oil Journal" all the time...I know all about coal, coal bed methane and all that good stuff...we do have TONS of coal
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,550
38,248
136
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Originally posted by: K1052
Coal liquefaction.

The US sits on 30% the known global coal reserves.

care to elaborate?



Coal can be turned into gas.

yeah I know that, I thought you said it could be turned into oil...I was like hmmm I hadn't heard that one yet...I read "American Gas and Oil Journal" all the time...I know all about coal, coal bed methane and all that good stuff...we do have TONS of coal

We are the Saudi Arabia of coal. :D

We need to stop burning the stuff in our generating plants and start using to to augment our fuel requirements.
 

5LiterMustang

Senior member
Dec 8, 2002
531
0
0
Originally posted by: K1052
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: 5LiterMustang
Originally posted by: K1052
Coal liquefaction.

The US sits on 30% the known global coal reserves.

care to elaborate?



Coal can be turned into gas.

yeah I know that, I thought you said it could be turned into oil...I was like hmmm I hadn't heard that one yet...I read "American Gas and Oil Journal" all the time...I know all about coal, coal bed methane and all that good stuff...we do have TONS of coal

We are the Saudi Arabia of coal. :D

We need to stop burning the stuff in our generating plants and start using to to augment our fuel requirements.
you do realize that coal in power plants is a substitute for oil right?