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Peak Oil (end of oil)

IHateMyJob2004

IHateMyJob2004

Lifer
Well, I skimmed a book and it scared me a bit. The books work on fear though and are vey VERY single minded.

Some examples:

I see energy as not being the problem. For example, solar panels are very inneficient right now. 10% efficiency I think. Prototypes are 35% efficient. So, solar power will be more viable in the future for home needs atleast.

The biggest problem is vehicles. Is solar power takes off, capacitors should keep pace as they continue to get smaller. I envision a future where we all have solar panels and plug our cars into an outlet in the garage which charges our cars. I nthe short term, I'd imagine that compact cars will be a requirment till techinology evolves.

As for trucking, we can still use diesel, but go to biodiesel. We should be able to produce enough biodiesel to support transportation of goods. I should add that the trucking industry will shrink and I'd expect railroads to take off again as that's a more efficient method.

LIGTHING: light emitting diodes! Already in use. You've probably sen them in traffic lights already.

I really think the future isn't doomed but hte doom is over hyped and we do need to start researching alternaives ASAP.

The biggest problem I see is with products created using oil and oil by-products. For exmaple, plastic. How we will manufacture things 100 years from now is beyond me, but as long as we have food and shelter, I don't see a big problem.

Just to help:
Some sort of population control is needed in a global scale.

Thoughts?
Karl
 
Do we really have to go through this again??? Ugh! Listed to Robert Norie on am radio if you want to discuss this.
 
Originally posted by: gutharius
Do we really have to go through this again??? Ugh! Listed to Robert Norie on am radio if you want to discuss this.
Click to expand...

1) Yes
2) If you don't want to discuss it, don't post. Quite simple really.
 
Problems solve themselves. When ofor profit companies feel the effects of a reduced oil supply, you better believe that they will come up with all kinds of unique solutions. This is the power of capitalism.
 
Wish I had a link to local Newspaper article ( I checked, they do not have the article on their limited website) about how they just spent 29 Million on a large Drill in the Central Gulf of Mexico and it came up dry. No more Oil left.

You have to go to the Mexico side of the Gulf to find any Oil now.

There is still some Natural Gas coming out of the U.S. side though but difficult to bring in.
 
Capitalism hasn't cured the common cold, they've been trying for a while now
There isn't always technological solutions.
That being said, I feel the greater problem is the growing human population and the demand oustripping supply. Scarcity of resource = war
 
Regarding the population issue, the UN estimates that at current rates of growth, the Human popluation on earth will cap out at around 10 billion.

Perhaps a problem, but at least it's not an infinite problem.

Increased education (especially for women!) and economic development in the southern countries will help that.
 
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Well, I skimmed a book and it scared me a bit. The books work on fear though and are vey VERY single minded.

Some examples:

I see energy as not being the problem. For example, solar panels are very inneficient right now. 10% efficiency I think. Prototypes are 35% efficient. So, solar power will be more viable in the future for home needs atleast.

The biggest problem is vehicles. Is solar power takes off, capacitors should keep pace as they continue to get smaller. I envision a future where we all have solar panels and plug our cars into an outlet in the garage which charges our cars. I nthe short term, I'd imagine that compact cars will be a requirment till techinology evolves.

As for trucking, we can still use diesel, but go to biodiesel. We should be able to produce enough biodiesel to support transportation of goods. I should add that the trucking industry will shrink and I'd expect railroads to take off again as that's a more efficient method.

LIGTHING: light emitting diodes! Already in use. You've probably sen them in traffic lights already.

I really think the future isn't doomed but hte doom is over hyped and we do need to start researching alternaives ASAP.

The biggest problem I see is with products created using oil and oil by-products. For exmaple, plastic. How we will manufacture things 100 years from now is beyond me, but as long as we have food and shelter, I don't see a big problem.

Just to help:
Some sort of population control is needed in a global scale.

Thoughts?
Karl
Click to expand...

link to this prototype solar cell thats more than 28% efficient?
 
And cheap oil has been the father of invention.

Easter Island had natives just as smart as we are right now. Why couldn't they find an alternative for their main resource?
 
what is ludicrous is the USGS's prediction of a free flowing oil future where a barrel will never top $35 even though demand will have grown to 120 million Bpd and of course the USGS expects that production will have magically soared 50% as we pump oil out of the air
 
Yeah, pretty much peak oil is going to mean a lot of economic trouble for the world... couple that with the falling value of the U.S. dollar and you've got one economic disaster on your hands.

Alternatives aren't looking too promising now, we'll probably resort to burning more coal before dumping millions into R&D.

Oh, and the most promising solar power methods aren't looking to be photovoltaic cells... check out these bad boys that use Stirling engines to capture the heat from the Sun:
http://news.com.com/Sandia+pus...00-7337_3-5466122.html
 
Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
what is ludicrous is the USGS's prediction of a free flowing oil future where a barrel will never top $35 even though demand will have grown to 120 million Bpd and of course the USGS expects that production will have magically soared 50% as we pump oil out of the air
Click to expand...

Not to mention that they say that 3 trillion barrels will be recoverable, when to find that amount, we would need something like 165 years to find that much. Discovery has pretty much tapered off. We found like 29 billion barrels in the year 1999 - 2000 all inclusive. In 1957 alone we found 48 billion barrels. For the decades 1950 to 1970, we found over 800 billion barrels of oil. From 1980 to current, we found a little less than 400 billion barrels. The USGS is basically asking us to repeat the discovery rates of 1950-1970.
 
Originally posted by: OrganizedChaos
nesesity is the mother of invention. when we need arises so will a solution.
Click to expand...

mama necessity wont always be there in time for you. you might be dead before mama finds a solution to your problem.
 
you must have read the end of oil

the book is not based on fear, it comes off that way because the truth really sucks essentially, if we don't find another energy source sh!t will start to collapse, that author lays out histories of how energy crunches have collpases empires and societies, don't just skim the book, read it
 
Originally posted by: gutharius
Do we really have to go through this again??? Ugh! Listed to Robert Norie on am radio if you want to discuss this.
Click to expand...

george, george norie...
coasttocoastam

best radio show, ever.

The erroneous assumption made by the peak-oil group is that the amount of accessible oil is being lied about by the oil industry and they are saying they have more oil than they actually have access to.

This isn't true. From an accounting standpoint it's good to have less accessible oil, and when you say "oh, we can't access but half of what we thought we could" bam! a loss.

we have a lot of extra oil in the earth.

ever wonder why bush jr. ran a failed oil company in Texas? because it was more profitable, tax wise, to not find oil and write the whole thing off and an expense. towards the end in the 80's Texas oil drillers we where drilling perfectly good wells and then capping them off so that we could pretend like we didn't actually have the oil.

we have a lot of oil.. the real problems we should be addressing are the environmental concerns, particularly that of mercury in our food supply.

You have to go to the Mexico side of the Gulf to find any Oil now.
Click to expand...
odd how the same ocean would have oil on one side, lots of it, and none on the other.

the fact is both sides have plenty of oil, but in America we tax our oil companies and in Mexico the country owns the oil company.

Perhaps a problem, but at least it's not an infinite problem.
Click to expand...
yep, unlike rats, humans can think about weather and why they create spawn lings.

and our environmental problems leading to low fertility doesn't hurt much either.

Easter Island had natives just as smart as we are right now. Why couldn't they find an alternative for their main resource?
Click to expand...
lazy.

FYI, the major solar panel companies are owned by oil companies. Draw your own conclusions.
Click to expand...
energy is good money.
 
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: gutharius
Do we really have to go through this again??? Ugh! Listed to Robert Norie on am radio if you want to discuss this.
Click to expand...

1) Yes
2) If you don't want to discuss it, don't post. Quite simple really.
Click to expand...

Exactly my point this has been debated at least 4 different time in ATOT and ATPN. Really do we need another 5th one. Bottom line, even if peak oil is going to happen/is happening there is nothing you can do to stop it. The whole premise of the book is that we had our chance in the 1970s to fix the problem but we dropped the ball and now it is too late to do anything about it. Live on less and maybe we can make the good times last, outside of that there is nothing else you or I can do.
 
Originally posted by: LordMagnusKain
Originally posted by: gutharius
Do we really have to go through this again??? Ugh! Listed to Robert Norie on am radio if you want to discuss this.
Click to expand...

george, george norie...
coasttocoastam

best radio show, ever.

The erroneous assumption made by the peak-oil group is that the amount of accessible oil is being lied about by the oil industry and they are saying they have more oil than they actually have access to.

This isn't true. From an accounting standpoint it's good to have less accessible oil, and when you say "oh, we can't access but half of what we thought we could" bam! a loss.

we have a lot of extra oil in the earth.

ever wonder why bush jr. ran a failed oil company in Texas? because it was more profitable, tax wise, to not find oil and write the whole thing off and an expense. towards the end in the 80's Texas oil drillers we where drilling perfectly good wells and then capping them off so that we could pretend like we didn't actually have the oil.

we have a lot of oil.. the real problems we should be addressing are the environmental concerns, particularly that of mercury in our food supply.
Click to expand...

Sorry, George Norie. The author of this book has been on that show like twice now. really interesting to hear but you get the point in the first minute of the show. It is too late to do anything at all so get used to it and be ready for it to happen.

Edit: And it is Listen not Listed, my apologies...
 
Get ready for the peak experience

...

Two new realities are fast converging on the public consciousness with what may be serendipitous timing: climate change and peak oil. After years of controversy and denial, there finally seems to be a solid consensus that climate change is here; that it threatens everything from agriculture to human health; and that it will probably turn out to be even worse than predicted.

"Peak oil" is a still-obscure term you will soon be hearing a lot more often. It simply refers to the peak of oil production. Oil was made over millions of years as ancient life was crushed and buried under the earth, and they ain't making any more of it ? at least not on any timescale that is meaningful to us ? so like any limited commodity (think Picassos or antique porcelain), the supply will rise to meet demand and then begin to fall. As supply falls, prices will go up, perhaps drastically.

Like a hiker climbing through clouds, we can't know where the peak is until we reach it and feel the ground falling away beneath our feet. But wait ? why are there clouds? Why can't we see the peak before we get there? Don't we have monitoring agencies that exist to make predictions about things like when the oil supply will peak?

As far as the average consumer and SUV buyer is concerned, the climb has been a stairway to heaven. The coming decline in oil production is rarely mentioned in public, and when it is, it is portrayed as so impossibly far off in the future that there is no sense in talking about it. The obscuring clouds have been deliberately generated by a collusion of oil industry, financial and government interests. They don't want us to know that we are about to fall off the world as we know it.

So I was mildly shocked to hear Texas oilman and corporate raider, T. Boone Pickens declare on NPR's Morning Edition last week: "The peak is now."

Pickens is certainly not the last word on peak prediction, but other serious analysts come close to his views. Petroleum geologist Kenneth Deffeyes, author of the breakthrough book "Hubbert's Peak," predicts the peak will fall on Thanksgiving Day in 2005. Others are more reluctant to pinpoint the peak and say it may be a few more years yet, but certainly before 2010. That's five, six years at the most to get our ducks in a row and ready to face a world of vastly accelerating oil prices.

Contrast this news with what governments and oil companies and have been saying. According to the US Energy Information Agency, oil production won't peak until 2035.

On the corporate side, British Petroleum publishes an annual Statistical Review of World Energy that is widely cited. Responding directly to the critics who point to an early peak, Lord Browne, chief executive for British Petroleum, wrote in the latest edition of the Review, "At current levels of consumption, there are sufficient reserves to meet oil demand for some 40 years and to meet natural gas demand for well over 60 years." There is no acceleration of oil depletion, he maintained.

But last week the Energy Institute of London released an independent analysis of BP's data showing that total world production declined by 1.14 million barrels a day last year. On top of that, the analysis found that the annual rate of decline is accelerating.

Oil companies do not want the word to get out. On Aug. 24, Shell Oil agreed to pay a $150 million fine for inflating its proven reserves by 4.5 billion barrels. Shell is the third largest oil company in the world and one fifth of their stated reserves were a lie. They did it to protect their stock value.

...

etc.
 
Originally posted by: OrganizedChaos
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Well, I skimmed a book and it scared me a bit. The books work on fear though and are vey VERY single minded.

Some examples:

I see energy as not being the problem. For example, solar panels are very inneficient right now. 10% efficiency I think. Prototypes are 35% efficient. So, solar power will be more viable in the future for home needs atleast.

The biggest problem is vehicles. Is solar power takes off, capacitors should keep pace as they continue to get smaller. I envision a future where we all have solar panels and plug our cars into an outlet in the garage which charges our cars. I nthe short term, I'd imagine that compact cars will be a requirment till techinology evolves.

As for trucking, we can still use diesel, but go to biodiesel. We should be able to produce enough biodiesel to support transportation of goods. I should add that the trucking industry will shrink and I'd expect railroads to take off again as that's a more efficient method.

LIGTHING: light emitting diodes! Already in use. You've probably sen them in traffic lights already.

I really think the future isn't doomed but hte doom is over hyped and we do need to start researching alternaives ASAP.

The biggest problem I see is with products created using oil and oil by-products. For exmaple, plastic. How we will manufacture things 100 years from now is beyond me, but as long as we have food and shelter, I don't see a big problem.

Just to help:
Some sort of population control is needed in a global scale.

Thoughts?
Karl
Click to expand...

link to this prototype solar cell thats more than 28% efficient?
Click to expand...

Not sure if I bokmarked it at home. i'll look later. Google couldn't find it 🙁

29%
 
Originally posted by: dannybin1742
you must have read the end of oil

the book is not based on fear, it comes off that way because the truth really sucks essentially, if we don't find another energy source sh!t will start to collapse, that author lays out histories of how energy crunches have collpases empires and societies, don't just skim the book, read it
Click to expand...

Not that book in particular.

Some facts:
1) Yes, it is based on fear. They use CURRENT efficiencies for solar panels. That is a BIG PROBLEM! They use current efficincies of alternative energy methods. They do not discuss tidal generators in the book I skimmed. They do not mention LED's for light generation. That's a big savings. They say Hybrids are step i nthe right direction. Sure they are. But do they say that we will probably have to resort to 1000 pound vehicles in the future? Do they mention that capacitive technology is eveolving and that will lighten the demand on energy in cars (versus weight of batteries). Do they mention that it might be required to go back to the vastly mroe efficient railroad system and reduce trucking and use biodiesel in those trains? TOTAL BIASED! BASED ON FEAR! Assumes we will not modify our habits. Hot hand on stove, leave on stove? no... move hand to cooler location.

2) The book I skimmed said there will be an innevetable crash in the economy. Why is the guy charging for the book if he is so damned sure of himself?
 
Originally posted by: blahblah99
FYI, the major solar panel companies are owned by oil companies. Draw your own conclusions.
Click to expand...

I noticed that in my after book skimming research. Shell oil is a BIG player in solar panels. Probably the best solar panel investment that can be made.

Siemens group also does solar panel tech but hey are not oil.
 
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