Paul Krugman with an early candidate for tweet of the year

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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,730
28,907
136
well you could really fuck someone up by hacking their comp and putting child porn on it.
I'm sure Iran already thought of it. Would be nice to set up some Republicans. Especially Senators up for election in 2020.

Iran if you're listening!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
again with the falsities. that's 3 now in this one thread.
explain each of the 3 items you said I made that were false and why with examples they were false. be precise please

otherwise it appears you are trying to shutdown speech by espousing a false narrative to an opposing viewpoint
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,358
8,447
126
because he's always wrong?
clearly not always wrong. he was right about republican politically motivated footdragging on the economy during the first few years after the great recession.
I'm pretty prosperous. My circle is prosperous, more so now than a few years ago. Last I looked we're in a pretty strong economy last couple of years. Sorry you're not feeling the uplift in stock, 401k/IRA etc...
been a decade, not a couple
so the only true narrative is yours? there can be no opposing viewpoint equally valid but yours?
when you're presenting false narratives you can't claim any validity.

oh, 3 for 3.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,632
50,853
136
Incorrect predictions/forecasts.
Everyone who makes predictions is usually wrong. Being right on future predictions is a less common outcome by anyone. Krugman is often wrong, quite spectacularly sometimes.


First, as you say anyone who makes predictions about economics is wrong plenty of times but with Krugman he was right about THE central problem in the Great Recession. He got the big thing 100% right. Can you admit this?

Second, it’s pretty clear you didn’t bother to read your own links, or did not understand them.

First link: Krugman is predicting an ongoing problem with creating sustained inflation at the Fed’s desired level, something they turned out to be 100% correct and was central to his other correct positions.

Second link: This isn’t a prediction at all, it’s a retrospective that when you compared European to US economic performance over the preceding decade Europe was doing just fine when the media narrative said otherwise.

Third link: Not only is this post HEAVILY qualified, it’s a statement that the ECB must basically start acting like the Fed and become an ironclad backdrop of the Euro. That’s exactly what the ECB did about two months later with the famous ‘whatever it takes’ statement.

What’s kind of amazing is that there are plenty of wrong predictions he’s made over the years and you decided to pick one that wasn’t a prediction and two where he was largely correct, haha. Is it really that hard to admit he was right and you were wrong?
 
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dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
clearly not always wrong. he was right about republican politically motivated footdragging on the economy during the first few years after the great recession.

been a decade, not a couple

when you're presenting false narratives you can't claim any validity.

oh, 3 for 3.
1. i'll grant you even a leftist can be right on chance
2. nope, never made any reference to any year but the last 2. that was some other leftists and you evidently assumption about what I meant. and you know where your assumptions come from :)
3. your opinion just as invalid in my view as your opinion of mine

so 1 of 3 thanks for playing
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
First, as you say anyone who makes predictions about economics is wrong plenty of times but with Krugman he was right about THE central problem in the Great Recession. He got the big thing 100% right. Can you admit this?

Second, it’s pretty clear you didn’t bother to read your own links, or did not understand them.

First link: Krugman is predicting an ongoing problem with creating sustained inflation at the Fed’s desired level, something they turned out to be 100% correct and was central to his other correct positions.

Second link: This isn’t a prediction at all, it’s a retrospective that when you compared European to US economic performance over the preceding decade Europe was doing just fine when the media narrative said otherwise.

Third link: Not only is this post HEAVILY qualified, it’s a statement that the ECB must basically start acting like the Fed and become an ironclad backdrop of the Euro. That’s exactly what the ECB did about two months later with the famous ‘whatever it takes’ statement.

What’s kind of amazing is that there are plenty of wrong predictions he’s made over the years and you decided to pick one that wasn’t a prediction and two where he was largely correct, haha. Is it really that hard to admit he was right and you were wrong?
you make great excuses. thanks
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,632
50,853
136
you make great excuses. thanks

They aren’t excuses, he was literally correct and more importantly that core inflation piece showed the key insight he had that caused conservatives to get everything wrong. Why not just admit he got it right instead of stubbornly insisting down is up?

It’s kind of amusing that you complain about the lack of substantive discussion here and then refuse to engage in any of it yourself. Be the change you want to see!
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,634
8,522
136
All I see in this thread is dphantom starting off with personal insults (e.g. the implied suggestion that those with a different view don't work - a point which, as an aside, also carries the implication that who is President doesn't make any difference as long as one works, thus making it meaningless to argue that Trump is doing either well or badly). And then following up with more insults (accusations of others "feeling left out, insecure, emotional") followed by a complaint about the other side engaging in "personal insults" (which seems a _mite_ hypocritical). Then a complaint that their 'narrative' and 'viewpoint' is being invalidated. Despite never having actually presented either a narrative or a viewpoint in the first place.

And I was only in here in the first place to see if anyone would have anything to say about the original topic - I don't really understand what Krugman was talking about in that tweet, neither the IP address thing nor the Qanon-as-a-verb thing.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,686
126
All I see in this thread is dphantom starting off with personal insults (e.g. the implied suggestion that those with a different view don't work - a point which, as an aside, also carries the implication that who is President doesn't make any difference as long as one works, thus making it meaningless to argue that Trump is doing either well or badly). And then following up with more insults (accusations of others "feeling left out, insecure, emotional") followed by a complaint about the other side engaging in "personal insults" (which seems a _mite_ hypocritical). Then a complaint that their 'narrative' and 'viewpoint' is being invalidated. Despite never having actually presented either a narrative or a viewpoint in the first place.

And I was only in here in the first place to see if anyone would have anything to say about the original topic - I don't really understand what Krugman was talking about in that tweet, neither the IP address thing nor the Qanon-as-a-verb thing.

I posted the original tweet (now deleted) because I thought it was very funny on a number of levels. I didn't care much how it would turn out, but from some of the follow ups I've seen here and in other places it seems like some scammers just called up Krugman and got him worked up. The part about his IP address was probably just him repeating what the scammers told him over the phone.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,634
8,522
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The Euro was always obviously flawed, for the reasons Krugman could clearly see. As far as I can make out, they've kept it going by fudging things, in particular bailing Greece out on an ad-hoc basis, thus saving German banks, and just letting southern europe endure the pain of mass unemployment. Financial union without fiscal union presents an obvious danger, when different parts of the area endure different economic conditions. I mean, Germany relies on exports, becuase it keeps its workers wages too low to buy what they produce. So other parts of Europe have to run a trade deficit, not everyone can be a net exporter. [edit - the EU treaties also forbid them from running a budget deficit, and it's hard to see how the combination of those two things can lead to anything other than economic contraction]

I haven't noticed this problem being systemically addressed, so as far as I can make out it could yet all go horribly wrong - but perhaps I missed something, not being an economist.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,634
8,522
136
I posted the original tweet (now deleted) because I thought it was very funny on a number of levels. I didn't care much how it would turn out, but from some of the follow ups I've seen here and in other places it seems like some scammers just called up Krugman and got him worked up. The part about his IP address was probably just him repeating what the scammers told him over the phone.

Tempting to see it as a 'boomer' or age-related thing. A friend's elderly parent was tricked into letting scam artists get remote access to her PC via bogus a 'microsoft support' phone call.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,632
50,853
136
The Euro was always obviously flawed, for the reasons Krugman could clearly see. As far as I can make out, they've kept it going by fudging things, in particular bailing Greece out on an ad-hoc basis, thus saving German banks, and just letting southern europe endure the pain of mass unemployment. Financial union without fiscal union presents an obvious danger, when different parts of the area endure different economic conditions. I mean, Germany relies on exports, becuase it keeps its workers wages too low to buy what they produce. So other parts of Europe have to run a trade deficit, not everyone can be a net exporter.

I haven't noticed this problem being systemically addressed, so as far as I can make out it could yet all go horribly wrong - but perhaps I missed something, not being an economist.

It is not being systematically addressed, which is definitely a big problem.

That being said, the ECB did stop the immediate problem Krugman identified, a run on distressed economy bonds, by saying it would act as a buyer of last resort. Now if you look at bond prices for Greece, Italy, etc. they are basically in line with other countries.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,686
126
Tempting to see it as a 'boomer' or age-related thing. A friend's elderly parent was tricked into letting scam artists get remote access to her PC via bogus a 'microsoft support' phone call.

Yeah, my dad almost fell for the same scam. Luckily he called me before he signed up for their "service plan" or whatever. He's usually a pretty skeptical guy, but seniors are vulnerable to these things.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,634
8,522
136
Yeah, my dad almost fell for the same scam. Luckily he called me before he signed up for their "service plan" or whatever. He's usually a pretty skeptical guy, but seniors are vulnerable to these things.

That said I feel like it's really tempting fate to assume you could never fall for a scam - I suspect there's always some line-of-attack that could catch anyone, the moment you think you know them all is exactly when they 'get' you.
 

Homerboy

Lifer
Mar 1, 2000
30,859
4,976
126
I'm pretty prosperous. My circle is prosperous, more so now than a few years ago. Last I looked we're in a pretty strong economy last couple of years. Sorry you're not feeling the uplift in stock, 401k/IRA etc...

Good news that just over 50% of Americans actually own stock.
When you're poor and living paycheck to paycheck, it's hard to have "extra money" to invest with.
Telling Americans "Stocks are up!" is like telling them they shouldn't have missed that party last night (that they weren't invited to)
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,634
8,522
136
Frankly, in general it seems as if none of the economic flaws that led to the recent spate of crises (and subsequent rise of the far right) have really been addressed. Seems to me it could all happen again, and this time we'd be starting from a position that is already very fragile politically and economically.

That's why I'm not enthused by 'business as usual' candidates like Biden, and why I think the Labour critics of Corbyn are, though correct on one level about Corbyn's shortcomings, are also complacent, in that they don't seem to see the dangers in just doing more of the same and just coasting on a good economy (i.e. looking to just repeat what Blair did).
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,284
13,581
146
Frankly, in general it seems as if none of the economic flaws that led to the recent spate of crises (and subsequent rise of the far right) have really been addressed. Seems to me it could all happen again, and this time we'd be starting from a position that is already very fragile politically and economically.

That's why I'm not enthused by 'business as usual' candidates like Biden, and why I think the Labour critics of Corbyn are, though correct on one level about Corbyn's shortcomings, are also complacent, in that they don't seem to see the dangers in just doing more of the same and just coasting on a good economy (i.e. looking to just repeat what Blair did).
Aside from the housing crisis (caused by specific actors who were never punished, exploiting a loophole that was since closed) I'm not wholley convinced we have major economic flaws, aside from the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer (which is a trend that was briefly interrupted in the 40's? 50's?). The DOW has tripled over the last decade, objectively things are going well. Right now I have concern that Trump is stressing things to their limit though, removing protections we have against recessions, but that's a recent (last 3y) development.

The rise of the right I don't think has anything to do with the economy, and has everything to do with propaganda, specific players in the news-scape (looking at you, Murdoch), and closet racists, sexists, and general assholery being given a voice through an absurd candidate that absurdly steamrolled the weakening party that put him up as a sideshow.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,125
30,518
136
I posted the original tweet (now deleted) because I thought it was very funny on a number of levels. I didn't care much how it would turn out, but from some of the follow ups I've seen here and in other places it seems like some scammers just called up Krugman and got him worked up. The part about his IP address was probably just him repeating what the scammers told him over the phone.
I thought this was obvious, hence my initial quip.
MV5BMTMzMDcwNzE3MV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwNTkyNTY4MQ@@._V1_.jpg
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,634
8,522
136
Aside from the housing crisis (caused by specific actors who were never punished, exploiting a loophole that was since closed) I'm not wholley convinced we have major economic flaws, aside from the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer (which is a trend that was briefly interrupted in the 40's? 50's?). The DOW has tripled over the last decade, objectively things are going well. Right now I have concern that Trump is stressing things to their limit though, removing protections we have against recessions, but that's a recent (last 3y) development.

The rise of the right I don't think has anything to do with the economy, and has everything to do with propaganda, specific players in the news-scape (looking at you, Murdoch), and closet racists, sexists, and general assholery being given a voice through an absurd candidate that absurdly steamrolled the weakening party that put him up as a sideshow.

I disagree, but I admit I'm uncertain about the whole issue. Fear of immigration and demographic change seems to also be a big part of it.

The economic flaws (like the Euro's contradictions and the turn to privatised-Keynesianism and creative-accounting to keep the economy going) are what cause periodic crises - things might appear to be going OK right up to the moment when they suddenly aren't.

And the increasing economic polarisation is one of those flaws, one that in itself can cause instability (what was the bad-mortgage crisis caused by but the inability of the poorest to house themselves without unsustainable debt?). Also economic inefficiency, as those securely at the top become complacent while talent is wasted among those stuck at the bottom.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,284
13,581
146
I disagree, but I admit I'm uncertain about the whole issue. Fear of immigration and demographic change seems to also be a big part of it.

The economic flaws (like the Euro's contradictions and the turn to privatised-Keynesianism and creative-accounting to keep the economy going) are what cause periodic crises - things might appear to be going OK right up to the moment when they suddenly aren't.

And the increasing economic polarisation is one of those flaws, one that in itself can cause instability (what was the bad-mortgage crisis caused by but the inability of the poorest to house themselves without unsustainable debt?). Also economic inefficiency, as those securely at the top become complacent while talent is wasted among those stuck at the bottom.
Sorry, I think I was mistakenly thinking you were referring to just US economy, not world-wide. If you're referring to world-wide, yeah it's at a tipping point due to debt levels and a whole range of other shit I'm not educated enough to espouse on, and it's likely to fall over about the time a Democrat gets into the office.