Palestinian UN bid enters unknown territory

[JEDIYoda]

Basically Obama is saying we will veto any vote for a Palestinian State...............

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110523/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_palestinians_un_bid

By KARIN LAUB and EDITH M. LEDERER, Associated Press Karin Laub And Edith M. Lederer, Associated Press – 20 mins ago
RAMALLAH, West Bank – President Barack Obama threw down a gauntlet this weekend: no vote at the United Nations, he asserted, would ever create a Palestinian state.

The Palestinians hope to prove him wrong. But their planned bid for U.N. recognition this fall of a state in the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem — territories occupied by Israel since the 1967 Mideast war — enters largely unknown legal ground, and the Palestinians are still trying to work out how best to work the U.N. labyrinth.

By a strict reading of U.N rules, an American veto at the Security Council — which appears likely — would seem to derail any attempt to win recognition of Palestine as a U.N. member from the General Assembly, where there is widespread sympathy for the Palestinian cause. Never before has the assembly taken on a new member state without a nod from the council.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110523/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_palestinians_un_bid


There is quite a bit more to read from the article.......
That could be encouraging to those who are pro-Palestinian and also to those who are pro-Israel....

 

[chucky2]

I really don't understand why the US would cast a veto on such a matter. Let the "Palestinians" have their state. The Israeli's have enough blood on their hands where going back to '67 borders or something along those lines would be enough of a compromise on Israel's part.

Israel should then officially declare war on the new Palestinian state. However, take no offensive action.

There should then be an immediate armistice.

When the first suicide bomber and/or rocket attack hits Israel, Israel can then resume the conflict, and wipe out the Palestinian's.

Matter settled, all legal like.

Chuck

 

[Lemon law]

Why should anyone disagree with the provided JediY link? Its IMHO, a fairly accurate summation of current world thinking. To some extent Obama let the genie out of the bottle by calling for a final settlement by 9/2011. Sadly Israel accuses the Palestinians and Palestinians accuse Israelis for wasting nine months with no negations, while the larger world has lost all patience and may just impose a settlement regardless of what Obama desired parameters are.

So all I can say, we are moving closer to the days of decisions come 9/2011.

 

[chucky2]

When has what the POTUS wanted in respect to this situation ever really mattered though, when it's come down to it?

 

[Nebor]

Why should anyone disagree with the provided JediY link? Its IMHO, a fairly accurate summation of current world thinking. To some extent Obama let the genie out of the bottle by calling for a final settlement by 9/2011. Sadly Israel accuses the Palestinians and Palestinians accuse Israelis for wasting nine months with no negations, while the larger world has lost all patience and may just impose a settlement regardless of what Obama desired parameters are.

So all I can say, we are moving closer to the days of decisions come 9/2011.

I'll bet you $200 there is no UN recognized Palestinian state by 9/2011.

 

[Lemon law]

When has what the POTUS wanted in respect to this situation ever really mattered though, when it's come down to it?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the short term 5 to ten year range, US presidents usually get their way at least until they prove they flopped.

But since we are talking a more recent Obama position hoping to solve a far older problem, the Chucky2 delusion may be in assuming the past is any predictor of the future.

The other variable is future Netanyuhu political survival as the only thing Netanyuhu cares about. On one hand Netanyuhu can't stay in office is he lets his crazed settler parties down, but Netanyuhu might still stay in office if its seen the larger world left him no other choice.

Meanwhile the Netanyuhu strategy boils down to stall, settle on disputed land, and stall any real negotiations on Palestinian State issues. A very risky strategy for Israel because it can totally backfire. IN MHO, the Olmert 2008 basic plan gave Israel a almost total victory, if Netanyuhu fucks up he could end up with far less in a final settlement.

Its just the basic Karma of any crap shoot bet. We never know in advance what the final future outcome will be. By in large the Palestinians have a sound plan, as for Israel, all they seemingly have is bluster and bluff. And like any Poker hand or game of musical chairs, the final card is played, win lose or draw.

But even as we speak, Netanyuhu gets to play the next two cards, tonight its his speech to Aipac, and tomorrow he addresses the US congress.

 

[Freshgeardude]

I'll bet you $200 there is no UN recognized Palestinian state by 9/2011.

you see, LL knows he wont make this bet. How can he? He would be betting 200 bucks on Obama who has already said he is gonna veto it.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Yet LL has continually made predictions that there will be a Palestinian state by Sept 2011.

Will this be another false prediction?

The only reason that Sept is tossed out is because a year ago Obama made the statement that there could be a Palestinian state in a year. This was an effort to get talks back on track after the Palestinians refused to come to the table.

Well Obama has aptly demonstrated that he has no influence and is able to put his foot in his mouth so far; that he is able to tie his lases (sp) via his ears.

He took to much political heat for his statements; so has to back pedal to the point where there is now no influence on the Palestinian side also.

So we will be back to where the situation was a year ago and a decade ago and 30 years ago.

The Palestinians will have to work it out with Israel. The world will not care. All the Pr will not make their dreams come true of a state of the destruction of Israel.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

So all I can say, we are moving closer to the end of days come 10/21/2011.

Harold, welcome to P&N

 

[fskimospy]

Yet LL has continually made predictions that there will be a Palestinian state by Sept 2001.

Will this be another false prediction.

The only reason that Sept is tossed out is because a year ago Obama made the statement that there could be a Palestinian state in a year. This was an effort to get talks back on track after the Palestinians refused to come to the table.

Well Obama has aptly demonstrated that he has no influence and is able to put his foot in his mouth so far; that he is able to tie his lases (sp) via his ears.

He took to much political heat for his statements; so has to back pedal to the point where there is now no influence on the Palestinian side also.

So we will be back to where the situation was a year ago and a decade ago and 30 years ago.

The Palestinians will have to work it out with Israel. The world will not care. All the Pr will not make their dreams come true of a state of the destruction of Israel.

How did Obama put his foot in his mouth?

 

[chucky2]

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the short term 5 to ten year range, US presidents usually get their way at least until they prove they flopped.

But since we are talking a more recent Obama position hoping to solve a far older problem, the Chucky2 delusion may be in assuming the past is any predictor of the future.

The other variable is future Netanyuhu political survival as the only thing Netanyuhu cares about. On one hand Netanyuhu can't stay in office is he lets his crazed settler parties down, but Netanyuhu might still stay in office if its seen the larger world left him no other choice.

Meanwhile the Netanyuhu strategy boils down to stall, settle on disputed land, and stall any real negotiations on Palestinian State issues. A very risky strategy for Israel because it can totally backfire. IN MHO, the Olmert 2008 basic plan gave Israel a almost total victory, if Netanyuhu fucks up he could end up with far less in a final settlement.

Its just the basic Karma of any crap shoot bet. We never know in advance what the final future outcome will be. By in large the Palestinians have a sound plan, as for Israel, all they seemingly have is bluster and bluff. And like any Poker hand or game of musical chairs, the final card is played, win lose or draw.

But even as we speak, Netanyuhu gets to play the next two cards, tonight its his speech to Aipac, and tomorrow he addresses the US congress.

Literally your whole post is meaningless. The entirety of it.

1.) In the short term, in regards to Israel and the "Palestinian's", POTUS's almost never get their way. Every POTUS wants to be 'the one' that got the two sides to broker a deal, and every recent POTUS ends up failing. Until Israel or the "Palestinian's" decide to make a deal with each other, or, until the UN forces their hand, and they actually accept it if it should ever happen, it doesn't matter what the sitting POTUS wants. 5 years, 10 years, whogivesashit years.

2.) That has been Israel's strategery from the get go, not Net's. Thinking somehow if you replace Net with someone else magically Israel's strategy is goign to change is F'ing retarded. Israel has tons of hardliners and fundi's, just like the "Palestinian's" do. Large numbers of both sides view each other as POS's, less than dogs. Don't think replacing Net is going to bring magic to the bargaining table: It won't.

Chuck

 

[lupi]

just let me know when this betting window opens.

 

[Lemon law]

First of all I don't plan on wagering outcomes I can't determine.

But the long term desired conventional wisdom was that the best Palestinian State outcome would occur through mutual Palestinian Israeli negotiation.

Regardless if we blame the Israelis or Palestinians, for the lack of negotiations, the somewhat new world consensus is that relying on a negotiated settlement is better than 20 Years of beating a dead horse.

And if a mutually negotiated solution is not an option, the larger world may have no choice but to impose their own solution. Because deny it or not, the Israeli Palestinian conflict is the #1 threat to mid-east Stability.

The Israeli myth may be on over reliance on the US based AIPAC. But the US may have to soon have to choose alienating the entire rest of the world to stand by only Israel. And even that may not be enough. When Israel blew off the Obama request for a settlement freeze last September, Israel my have ended their last chance to control their own fate.

I am used to being in the minority, but we will find out who is reading the tea leaves correctly.

 

[Zebo]

I think things will go exact opposite way LL thinks. Israel has made huge gains of the sort that were once unthinkable and Israeli electorate seems more amenable by the day to Avigdor Lieberman type plans of deporting every Palestinian to the far side of the Jordan river. As the West gains Islamoawareness from returning troops who have come face to face, leaning on their own, living in their midsts and realizes it's nothing more than fascism dressed as a religion we will be less resistance to total separation.

 

[EagleKeeper]

First of all I don't plan on wagering outcomes I can't determine.

But the long term desired conventional wisdom was that the best Palestinian State outcome would occur through mutual Palestinian Israeli negotiation.

Regardless if we blame the Israelis or Palestinians, for the lack of negotiations, the somewhat new world consensus is that relying on a negotiated settlement is better than 20 Years of beating a dead horse.

And if a mutually negotiated solution is not an option, the larger world may have no choice but to impose their own solution. Because deny it or not, the Israeli Palestinian conflict is the #1 threat to mid-east Stability.
The Arab nations do not care about the Palestinians except as a proxie to unleash their own frustrations. the local population would trade their own happiness over that of the Palestinians anytime. the uprisings in Libya, Egypt, Syria are not as a result of Israel; it is a result of freedom of information that allows the people to know what they have missed. Same as what happened in Germany 30 years ago.

The Israeli myth may be on over reliance on the US based AIPAC. But the US may have to soon have to choose alienating the entire rest of the world to stand by only Israel. And even that may not be enough. When Israel blew off the Obama request for a settlement freeze last September, Israel my have ended their last chance to control their own fate.

I am used to being in the minority, but we will find out who is reading the tea leaves correctly.

Keep with the Palestinian propaganda that is was Israel's fault on the settlement talks.
We never saw the Palestinians show up to the table after Israel called their bluff. when your opponent never showed; how can there be any progress?
That was pointed out from the beginning, but never acknowledged. And afterwards we found out why Abbas never showed - he did not have the authority to make any agreements!. Not showing was his way of saving face.

Statement in red is from WikiLeaks

 

[Londo_Jowo]

The Palestinian state will become official on 9/10/11

 

[Lemon law]

Well, all I can say CC is that is the first time I ever heard that new piece of bullshit Israeli propaganda. When I hear it from George Mitchell I might believe it.

But for its is worth, Abbas is very close to announcing the New Unity Government, what is now know is that there will be no Hamas or Fatah politicians, the entire delegations legitimacy will come from technocrat qualifications.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Well, all I can say CC is that is the first time I ever heard that new piece of bullshit Israeli propaganda. When I hear it from George Mitchell I might believe it.

But for its is worth, Abbas is very close to announcing the New Unity Government, what is now know is that there will be no Hamas or Fatah politicians, the entire delegations legitimacy will come from technocrat qualifications.

When Hamas steps down in gaza and allows the new government to take over then that is a step forward.
When the new government is able to stop attacks from Gaza; the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train.


George Mitchell is out of the picture. You do not hear propaganda from the Palestinian/Arab side - you see what you want to see.

 

[Freshgeardude]

Well, all I can say CC is that is the first time I ever heard that new piece of bullshit Israeli propaganda. When I hear it from George Mitchell I might believe it.

LMFAO that statement in red has been told to you at least 5 times over the past few weeks.

YOU CHOOSE WHAT TO CARE ABOUT, WHAT TO READ ABOUT.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Well, all I can say CC is that is the first time I ever heard that new piece of bullshit Israeli propaganda. When I hear it from George Mitchell I might believe it.

LMFAO that statement in red has been told to you at least 5 times over the past few weeks.

YOU CHOOSE WHAT TO CARE ABOUT, WHAT TO READ ABOUT.

Another nail in his credibility coffin.()

• Flotillas to run blockades
• Turkey to provide warships for blockade runners
• Egypt to open the embargo gates (took a change of government to do so) - which he did not predict
• UN embargo on Israel
• Gaza PM has no authority

Already he is back pedaling on his 9/2011 assertion :thumbsdown:

 

[Lemon law]

To CC and various Israeli fan clubbers,

Things are playing out largely as I expected, Netanyuhu has played his last cards, and now overall, its the rest or the world is gong to be the ones making the Statements.

Some will be public and others will be private, but I think the bulk of the Statements will involve no confidence in Netanyuhu and the consequences if Obama defies world will on a Palestinian State. Meanwhile we will have to wait for events.

Israel has turned its back on a realistic negotiated settlement or a tenable future. And other Nations who have big investments in a stable mid-east will decide it for Israel.

As time ticks down to 9/2011.

 

[EagleKeeper]

What realistic negotiated settlement?

The Arabs have never put a realistic one forward and have rejected anything that Israel and the US have proposed.

they have flushed Oslo and Camp David down the tubes; Annapolis was a joke - an agreement to try to reach an agreement.

do you have an actual day and time for your prediction/wish or due we have to wait until 1 Oct to sere the dish that you deserve?

 

[Lemon law]

The CC delusions starts with his first statement, "What realistic negotiated settlement?"

As the clock ticks down, Israel has no realistic negotiated settlement to offer.

If an issue can't be settled by compromise, its going to be imposed from without.

Beyond that I have no specific dates to offer, as the probability of the Israel's retaining its 44 year military occupations gets smaller and smaller every day.

Its somewhat in my opinions like American slaveholders in 1860, they all agreed their run would last forever as they rejected the last compromise, and a settlement was imposed from without. The Brits also tried to maintain their hold on India, but one day too that came to an end. No need to do it violently, world pressure will due nicely.

 

[EagleKeeper]

The CC delusions starts with his first statement, "What realistic negotiated settlement?"

As the clock ticks down, Israel has no realistic negotiated settlement to offer.

If an issue can't be settled by compromise, its going to be imposed from without.

Beyond that I have no specific dates to offer, as the probability of the Israel's retaining its 44 year military occupations gets smaller and smaller every day.

Its somewhat in my opinions like American slaveholders in 1860, they all agreed their run would last forever as they rejected the last compromise, and a settlement was imposed from without. The Brits also tried to maintain their hold on India, but one day too that came to an end. No need to do it violently, world pressure will due nicely.

Again deflection - what realistic settlement have the Arabs offered?

 

[Lemon law]

Again deflection - what realistic settlement have the Arabs offered?

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The Arabs and Pals have a rich history of settlement propasals in the 2000-2011 time period. IN 2001 or 2002 Israel could have gained the recognition of all Arab nation and instead refused to make any concessions. Then we can talk about the Annapolis Conference where Israel again did the same. Or we talk about the Olmert plan that was almost complete, and now Netanyuhu rejects that too.

CC you can peddle your version, but it don't meet the truth sniff test in the rest of the world. As I said before, Netanyuhu played his last cards, now we must wait for the reactions of the Rest of the world. As Netanyuhu has rejected any negotiated settlement, making a UN declared Palestinian State the next test.

Its all well and fine for Obama to want a Israeli Palestinian agreed State, but Netanyuhu terms demand all for Israel making the mutually agreed option a non starter.