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Operation Orchard: The Israeli attack in Syria - good analysis

SamurAchzar

Platinum Member
Feb 15, 2006
2,422
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I referred to Operation Orchard several times lately, in the discussions held within this respectable forum. I looked for some additional material (beyond the obligatory Wiki stuff) myself, and came up with this little gem, taken from Der Spiegel (in English, don't worry).
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
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One glaring error missing in the link is that Israel had been asking and asking GWB for permission to bomb the alleged Syrian reactor and did not act until GWB finally gave in.

But now that Obama and Russia are turning against Israel, can we expect Israel to make strikes on our reactors, or Russian reactors. Or is Israel the only country on earth endowed with that right?

And if Israel has the ? right to go into other countries and bomb their reactors, why don't other countries have the same right to bomb the rather rickety Israeli nuclear reactor at Desmona? It would not be hard to take out, the containment dome is already riddled with cracks. Just one act of God medium sized earthquake would probably do it.
And why for that matter does Israel have a right to by-pass the IAEA and start an illegal
nuclear weapons program and other nations do not.

As for Iran, they learned the Iraqi and Syrian lessons of Israel. And deeply buried their sites and have too many to take out in one strike. And are still in compliance with IAEA
rules at the time they started the program. After Iran signed onto the IAEA permit process, the IAEA changed the rules, the new rules would certainly bind new permit applying nations, but is Iran grandfathered in under the old rules or not is the question on which any Iranian IAEA violations hang. And to some extent, keeping information away from Israel is quite rational for Iran. Why aid your enemy who vows to destroy your sites? And for that matter, why should the IAEA even listen to Israel or even give Israel the time of day for by passing all IAEA rules.

So if Iran decides to pull an Israel and withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, they would then have exactly the same rights and legitimacy Israel has now.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
36,852
11,053
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Syria is a party to the NPT and Israel is not (and thus not subject to IAEA inspection). If the Syrians want nukes they should withdraw from the NPT like North Korea.

Nobody is saying boo about the Israelis blowing up the Syrian reactor since they weren't supposed to have it in the first place.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
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You also do not have Israel threatening Iran, unlike their leadership does. Symantecs aside; IRan does not like Israel as evidenced by the actions of their proxies.

Iraq and Syria were both still at a state of war with Israel when the strikes happened.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
2
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You also do not have Israel threatening Iran, unlike their leadership does. Symantecs aside; IRan does not like Israel as evidenced by the actions of their proxies.

Iraq and Syria were both still at a state of war with Israel when the strikes happened.
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Common Courtesy, you kinda lose me right away when you say Israeli talk coming from many quite serious Israeli leaders about bombing Iranian nuclear sites does not consist of Israel threatening Iran.

On the other hand, about the only Iranian verbally threatening Israel is Ahmadinejad, and many of his threats have been falsely inflated in translation by the Israeli propaganda machine. Ahmadinejad may be a useful tool for the Iranian mullahs in power, he has no real power in Iran, and the mullahs keep their motor mouth on a tight leash.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,660
3,138
126
One glaring error missing in the link is that Israel had been asking and asking GWB for permission to bomb the alleged Syrian reactor and did not act until GWB finally gave in.

But now that Obama and Russia are turning against Israel, can we expect Israel to make strikes on our reactors, or Russian reactors. Or is Israel the only country on earth endowed with that right?

And if Israel has the ? right to go into other countries and bomb their reactors, why don't other countries have the same right to bomb the rather rickety Israeli nuclear reactor at Desmona? It would not be hard to take out, the containment dome is already riddled with cracks. Just one act of God medium sized earthquake would probably do it.
And why for that matter does Israel have a right to by-pass the IAEA and start an illegal
nuclear weapons program and other nations do not.

As for Iran, they learned the Iraqi and Syrian lessons of Israel. And deeply buried their sites and have too many to take out in one strike. And are still in compliance with IAEA
rules at the time they started the program. After Iran signed onto the IAEA permit process, the IAEA changed the rules, the new rules would certainly bind new permit applying nations, but is Iran grandfathered in under the old rules or not is the question on which any Iranian IAEA violations hang. And to some extent, keeping information away from Israel is quite rational for Iran. Why aid your enemy who vows to destroy your sites? And for that matter, why should the IAEA even listen to Israel or even give Israel the time of day for by passing all IAEA rules.

So if Iran decides to pull an Israel and withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, they would then have exactly the same rights and legitimacy Israel has now.
glaring ommission by who??
You have anything other than your twisyed opinion perhaps a link -- NOt a blog to back up your thinking that Israel asked the US for permission.......just as I thought......nope..lol
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
2
0
JEDIYoda bleats, "NOt a blog to back up your thinking that Israel asked the US for permission.......just as I thought......nope..lol"
__________________

Pardon me JEDIYoda, I do my own thinking and don't rely on blogs to do my thinking for me. But yes I was always aware than Israel never signed the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which in my mind, does not legitimize Israeli nukes?

But if Iran is forced to withdraw from the nuclear non proliferation treaty, the world loses all Iranian monitoring capacity and more importantly the ability to influence what types of reactors Iran builds. The worst case scenario for a future Iranian nuclear weapons program would be for Iran to choose a breeder reactor similar to the Israeli reactor at Desmona, that requires up to 20&#37; U235 enrichment, with breeder reactors having heavy yields of plutonium extractable from spent fuel rods. And the best case scenario would be for Iran to choose reactors of a modern design that use 2-5% U235 enrichment that yields very little plutonium in their spent fuel rods. And dare we dream, that the world can cut a deal with Iran that allows the USA and or the IAEA to control the spent fuel rods and subsequent processing.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
5
0
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Common Courtesy, you kinda lose me right away when you say Israeli talk coming from many quite serious Israeli leaders about bombing Iranian nuclear sites does not consist of Israel threatening Iran.

On the other hand, about the only Iranian verbally threatening Israel is Ahmadinejad, and many of his threats have been falsely inflated in translation by the Israeli propaganda machine. Ahmadinejad may be a useful tool for the Iranian mullahs in power, he has no real power in Iran, and the mullahs keep their motor mouth on a tight leash.
Israel has always had plans when their neighbors start to threaten them.

Some have been shown to be implimented.


Israel may translate the words one way; but the rest of the world (including the Muslim and the BBC) to not change the meaning when he talks.

The guy does not like Israel being there and encourages it to be attacked.
By him being allowed in that position and able to make such speeches; those within the power structure are also supporting that position.

Iran has a mouth piece and that mouth piece is condoned by the rest of its leadership.

The US and other countries do not take well to being attacked by outside forces - they retaliate.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,872
4,214
126
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Common Courtesy, you kinda lose me right away when you say Israeli talk coming from many quite serious Israeli leaders about bombing Iranian nuclear sites does not consist of Israel threatening Iran.

On the other hand, about the only Iranian verbally threatening Israel is Ahmadinejad, and many of his threats have been falsely inflated in translation by the Israeli propaganda machine. Ahmadinejad may be a useful tool for the Iranian mullahs in power, he has no real power in Iran, and the mullahs keep their motor mouth on a tight leash.
The only Iranian being the President of the country. Now he may not hold a parallel position to our President, but he is the effective spokes man of those in real power.

If Israel attacks Iran it would be to go after the nukes of a country that has leaders who would love to exterminate the Israelis.

Specific targets vs elimination? Hardly equivalent. If Israel wanted act as Imadinnerjacket talks, Iran would be a slag heap already.
 

Linflas

Lifer
Jan 30, 2001
15,388
75
91
The only Iranian being the President of the country. Now he may not hold a parallel position to our President, but he is the effective spokes man of those in real power.

If Israel attacks Iran it would be to go after the nukes of a country that has leaders who would love to exterminate the Israelis.

Specific targets vs elimination? Hardly equivalent. If Israel wanted act as Imadinnerjacket talks, Iran would be a slag heap already.
The dirty little secret is that many Arab countries, Europe, and the US are counting on Israel to ultimately deal with Iran before it gets a nuke. They will then sit around and bleat about the plight of the Palestinians and those out of control Israelis while breathing a collective sigh of relief that the can has been kicked a little further down the road.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,660
3,138
126
The dirty little secret is that many Arab countries, Europe, and the US are counting on Israel to ultimately deal with Iran before it gets a nuke. They will then sit around and bleat about the plight of the Palestinians and those out of control Israelis while breathing a collective sigh of relief that the can has been kicked a little further down the road.
That`s no dirty little secret.
In fact to be blunt all the above countries as well as others know this to be a fact~~!!
Perhaps Lemon law might not understand this concept, trust me when I say the whole world knows Israel will attack.

also trust me Israel will do whatever it takes for this attack to be successful!!

People who think Israel needs our bunker buster bombs in order to have an successful attack just do not understand the word - SURVIVAL!!!
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,660
3,138
126
JEDIYoda bleats, "NOt a blog to back up your thinking that Israel asked the US for permission.......just as I thought......nope..lol"
__________________

Pardon me JEDIYoda, I do my own thinking and don't rely on blogs to do my thinking for me. But yes I was always aware than Israel never signed the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which in my mind, does not legitimize Israeli nukes?

But if Iran is forced to withdraw from the nuclear non proliferation treaty, the world loses all Iranian monitoring capacity and more importantly the ability to influence what types of reactors Iran builds. The worst case scenario for a future Iranian nuclear weapons program would be for Iran to choose a breeder reactor similar to the Israeli reactor at Desmona, that requires up to 20% U235 enrichment, with breeder reactors having heavy yields of plutonium extractable from spent fuel rods. And the best case scenario would be for Iran to choose reactors of a modern design that use 2-5% U235 enrichment that yields very little plutonium in their spent fuel rods. And dare we dream, that the world can cut a deal with Iran that allows the USA and or the IAEA to control the spent fuel rods and subsequent processing.
As usual you didnot answer my question.......all you did was blabber along.....
Link to your assertion that Israel needed permission to attack Syria.....

Okay so admit I was right-- your opinion cannot be backed up by hard facts, such as a link.......
But hey thats OKay-- we all knew you could not back up your asertion that Israel needed permission.........BUSTED!!!
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
91
If I was Isreal, when the Hezbolah were attacking Isreal, I would have just said that the Hezbolah were acting on orders from Iran and just start attacking Iran in retaliation. They did find Iranian soldiers in with the Hezbolah terrorists, and this is all you need for proof. My guess is the USA would not have backed them up or asked them not to bomb Iran. Quite possibly President Bush probably threatened to cut off all aid to Isreal. This is how things works in international politics.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,872
4,214
126
Now this is from the leadership of Iran. Not just some radio nut job, but people in actual control.

BEIRUT – A senior Iranian cleric says women who wear immodest clothing and behave promiscuously are to blame for earthquakes.
Iran is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries, and the cleric's unusual explanation for why the earth shakes follows a prediction by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a quake is certain to hit Tehran and that many of its 12 million inhabitants should relocate.
"Many women who do not dress modestly ... lead young men astray, corrupt their chastity and spread adultery in society, which (consequently) increases earthquakes," Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi was quoted as saying by Iranian media. Sedighi is Tehran's acting Friday prayer leader.
Women in the Islamic Republic are required by law to cover from head to toe, but many, especially the young, ignore some of the more strict codes and wear tight coats and scarves pulled back that show much of the hair.
"What can we do to avoid being buried under the rubble?" Sedighi asked during a prayer sermon Friday. "There is no other solution but to take refuge in religion and to adapt our lives to Islam's moral codes."
Seismologists have warned for at least two decades that it is likely the sprawling capital will be struck by a catastrophic quake in the near future.
Some experts have even suggested Iran should move its capital to a less seismically active location. Tehran straddles scores of fault lines, including one more than 50 miles (80 kilometers) long, though it has not suffered a major quake since 1830.
In 2003, a powerful earthquake hit the southern city of Bam, killing 31,000 people — about a quarter of that city's population — and destroying its ancient mud-built citadel.
"A divine authority told me to tell the people to make a general repentance. Why? Because calamities threaten us," Sedighi said.
Referring to the violence that followed last June's disputed presidential election, he said, "The political earthquake that occurred was a reaction to some of the actions (that took place). And now, if a natural earthquake hits Tehran, no one will be able to confront such a calamity but God's power, only God's power. ... So let's not disappoint God."
The Iranian government and its security forces have been locked in a bloody battle with a large opposition movement that accuses Ahmadinejad of winning last year's vote by fraud.
Ahmadinejad made his quake prediction two weeks ago but said he could not give an exact date. He acknowledged that he could not order all of Tehran's 12 million people to evacuate. "But provisions have to be made. ... At least 5 million should leave Tehran so it is less crowded," the president said.
Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadeq Mahsooli said prayers and pleas for forgiveness were the best "formulas to repel earthquakes."
"We cannot invent a system that prevents earthquakes, but God has created this system and that is to avoid sins, to pray, to seek forgiveness, pay alms and self-sacrifice," Mahsooli said.
These are the people LL seems to think are perfectly normal. Imagine if Bush had said that people needed to leave cities because God is going to strike the US with earthquakes for our sins and cities should be evacuated. LL would have a fit for him being stark raving mad and I'd agree.

These people and nukes? Not a problem. They're like everyone else.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
2
0
Now Hayabusa Rider really goes off the deep end, thinking one lone Iranian wack job cleric speaks for all of Iran. I will call your Iranian cleric and play the highest possible trump card with our own Pat Robertson. Who also has some rather interesting observations about Haitian earthquakes, the cause of 911, and other world events.

The point being, few people in the USA believe a word that comes out of Pat's mouth and about as many in Iran believe their wack job.

But hey, Hayabuasa, I will recant my statement as soon as I see Iranians go back to wearing Burkas in mass.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,872
4,214
126
You've intentionally missed the point.

Here's Pat Robertson, the President of the US.

Ahmadinejad made his quake prediction two weeks ago but said he could not give an exact date. He acknowledged that he could not order all of Tehran's 12 million people to evacuate. "But provisions have to be made. ... At least 5 million should leave Tehran so it is less crowded," the president said.
How about this radio evangelist?

Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadeq Mahsooli said prayers and pleas for forgiveness were the best "formulas to repel earthquakes." "We cannot invent a system that prevents earthquakes, but God has created this system and that is to avoid sins, to pray, to seek forgiveness, pay alms and self-sacrifice," Mahsooli said.
Iran is a de facto dictatorship, and these are the ones who would have their finger on the metaphorical button. If Robertson did I'd be really unhappy about it yet you think it's fine that his equivalent and then some who actually have real power and have expressed a desire to wipe out an entire nation are just fine.

That's pretty bizarre.
 

Noobtastic

Banned
Jul 9, 2005
3,721
0
0
That's pretty bizarre.
No it isn't. You forget raging leftists like Lemon Law don't expect Israel's enemies to behave like human beings.

Stoning women in Tehran for daring to masturbate doesn't phase him, but Goldstein building 900 sq ft. apartment in Jerusalem drives him MAD.

It's not antisemitim, it's moral deficiency.
 

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