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OPEC production

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/PAPRPOP.gif

So I've heard it said that OPEC hasn't increased production in 30 years so I went looking .... and I was a bit surprised to see that it is true... although they have raised it since dropping it...:p

~30mill production in 1973 and ~30mill now. Is it any wonder why oil prices have been able to skyrocket? Increase world demand without increasing supply(from a major source) will do this every time.

side note- yes price isn't tied directly as speculation has taken over but the base ingredients were there for this to happen and allowed them to run wild.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
141
116
Non-OPEC oil producing nations are pumping more oil than they were 30 years ago.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Non-OPEC oil producing nations are pumping more oil than they were 30 years ago.
Yes they are but have their increases kept up with demand?
whenever i see this comment on variations of it I always make a supply/demand equation in my head and try to figure out what it means. It never turns out, since for every supply, there is a prices at which supply has kept up with demand. So i guess the answer should be yes, except that at the moment supply is exceeding demand due to artificially high prices.

is that what you were asking?
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Non-OPEC oil producing nations are pumping more oil than they were 30 years ago.
Yes they are but have their increases kept up with demand?
whenever i see this comment on variations of it I always make a supply/demand equation in my head and try to figure out what it means. It never turns out, since for every supply, there is a prices at which supply has kept up with demand. So i guess the answer should be yes, except that at the moment supply is exceeding demand due to artificially high prices.

is that what you were asking?
What I was responding to was the "flat" production(not flat but now the same as it was 30 years ago) of OPEC. The US pumped ~9mill in 1973 and it's now down under 6mill. Has the pumping from other nations increased that much to make up for the "flat" and decreased levels?
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
9,717
2
0
OPEC countries are having a tougher time pumping oil as their large easily accessed reserves are no longer at full capacity. They are now required to search for and drill small reserves increasing costs and barely maintaining the same production rate. The world's demand is increasing as the developing world do little to reduce consumption and the majority of the people in developing world are consuming more as their economies grow at double digit increases; where GDP growth is proportional to energy consumption. Therefore to make up for this increased demand non-OPEC countries have filled the void with drilling in the north sea, oil sands mining and other tight oil drilling. We are not running out of oil, we are running out of cheap oil; most of the oil sands, tight oil, and offshore drilling are only justified at $40-60 oil where OPEC's supplies were justified at much much less. Luckily gas stations have no competitive advantage at the moment and refiners have very low crack spreads meaning we are getting most of our gas increases exclusively from oil prices. Have you seen a Valero Energy chart lately? Down 33% in the last year...gas prices through the roof...refiners are dying. Therefore it's not a refining issue but a supply issue with the added demand. Luckily for the US and other 1st world nations, high oil prices are universal across the world and hurt China and India's growth far more than the US or EU. We can afford it, they cannot and they are not sitting on a ton of reserves; they must trade on the global market like everyone else.

See CIA factbook: Global Oil Consumption - 80.29 million bbl/day, Global Oil Production - 78.9 million bbl/day

It's tight boys and girls...get used to it...
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/PAPRPOP.gif

So I've heard it said that OPEC hasn't increased production in 30 years so I went looking .... and I was a bit surprised to see that it is true... although they have raised it since dropping it...:p

~30mill production in 1973 and ~30mill now. Is it any wonder why oil prices have been able to skyrocket? Increase world demand without increasing supply(from a major source) will do this every time.

side note- yes price isn't tied directly as speculation has taken over but the base ingredients were there for this to happen and allowed them to run wild.
show me one place that has run out of the supply.

U.S. oil inventories for example have not dropped below 9 year highs.

It's all in the oil/gas thread.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Stunt

See CIA https://www.cia.gov/library/pu...book/geos/xx.html#Econ">factbook</a>:

Global Oil Consumption - 80.29 million bbl/day, Global Oil Production - 78.9 million bbl/day

It's tight boys and girls...get used to it...
That suggests people have been running out of oil by at least a million barrels a day.

I don't live far from Missouri - Show me who is out of oil.

 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: Stunt
OPEC countries are having a tougher time pumping oil as their large easily accessed reserves are no longer at full capacity. They are now required to search for and drill small reserves increasing costs and barely maintaining the same production rate. The world's demand is increasing as the developing world do little to reduce consumption and the majority of the people in developing world are consuming more as their economies grow at double digit increases; where GDP growth is proportional to energy consumption. Therefore to make up for this increased demand non-OPEC countries have filled the void with drilling in the north sea, oil sands mining and other tight oil drilling. We are not running out of oil, we are running out of cheap oil; most of the oil sands, tight oil, and offshore drilling are only justified at $40-60 oil where OPEC's supplies were justified at much much less. Luckily gas stations have no competitive advantage at the moment and refiners have very low crack spreads meaning we are getting most of our gas increases exclusively from oil prices. Have you seen a Valero Energy chart lately? Down 33% in the last year...gas prices through the roof...refiners are dying. Therefore it's not a refining issue but a supply issue with the added demand. Luckily for the US and other 1st world nations, high oil prices are universal across the world and hurt China and India's growth far more than the US or EU. We can afford it, they cannot and they are not sitting on a ton of reserves; they must trade on the global market like everyone else.

See CIA https://www.cia.gov/library/pu...book/geos/xx.html#Econ">factbook</a>: Global Oil Consumption - 80.29 million bbl/day, Global Oil Production - 78.9 million bbl/day

It's tight boys and girls...get used to it...
There could be a point in there. If OPEC isn't keeping up with increases because they have to invest... then why aren't they? Is it because they don't want to? and/or because they want to control supply?
I guess I should note that I'm not trying to put all the "blame" on OPEC but they are a big target due to their market share and production controls. I think the US should be keeping up with their usage as well but sadly we've declined due to a great many reasons.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
20,874
826
126
Come on Dave no one is saying OUT of oil. If production is flat, its flat. Thats all there is to it.
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: blackangst1
Pumping = production? I would think production = refining. *shrug*
Same situation.

Refineries have actually cut production by 30% on purpose.

Kills the whole notion that there isn't enough capacity eh? Bahahahahahahaha
This will be my only reply to you unless you start being a bit rational.

This is not about refining - it's about production levels "increases" not keeping up...
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
2
0
We drink our faces off and expect to wake up at sunrise without a hangover. It's not realistic and no amount of gatorade can counter that drunk. We are now reaping the seeds of profligacy, and what a thorny bush it makes. So we'll toil all day in the sun and if we don't die of heatstroke, we'll have earned ourselves a beer, but tonight we'll know better than to get sh*tfaced, because we'll have learned, hopefully.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: Stunt
Global Oil Consumption - 80.29 million bbl/day, Global Oil Production - 78.9 million bbl/day

It's tight boys and girls...get used to it...
There could be a point in there.

If OPEC isn't keeping up with increases because they have to invest...
then why aren't they?


Is it because they don't want to?

and/or because they want to control supply?

I guess I should note that I'm not trying to put all the "blame" on OPEC but they are a big target due to their market share and production controls.
I think the US should be keeping up with their usage as well but sadly we've declined due to a great many reasons.
OMFGBBQ Is there the slightest possibility of a bulb lighting up? :shocked:

Thank you Stunt :thumbsup:

It's only what I've been saying for how many years? :confused:
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: blackangst1
Pumping = production? I would think production = refining. *shrug*
Same situation.

Refineries have actually cut production by 30% on purpose.

Kills the whole notion that there isn't enough capacity eh? Bahahahahahahaha
This will be my only reply to you unless you start being a bit rational.

This is not about refining - it's about production levels "increases" not keeping up...
Oh come on now.

If you were incompetent in your job would you still have it?

Would you be rewarded with billions and billions salary increase on top of the incompetance?
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
There could be a point in there.

If OPEC isn't keeping up with increases because they have to invest...
then why aren't they?


Is it because they don't want to?

and/or because they want to control supply?

I guess I should note that I'm not trying to put all the "blame" on OPEC but they are a big target due to their market share and production controls.
I think the US should be keeping up with their usage as well but sadly we've declined due to a great many reasons.
OMFGBBQ Is there the slightest possibility of a bulb lighting up? :shocked:

Thank you Stunt :thumbsup:

It's only what I've been saying for how many years? :confused:
No, there is no light bulb you twit. You've just been too irrational for anyone to agree with you because you take everything to the extreme. But I have a question - do you believe OPEC is purposely controlling supply to drive the price?

OK, this is the last...:p
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Skoorb
We drink our faces off and expect to wake up at sunrise without a hangover. It's not realistic and no amount of gatorade can counter that drunk. We are now reaping the seeds of profligacy, and what a thorny bush it makes. So we'll toil all day in the sun and if we don't die of heatstroke, we'll have earned ourselves a beer, but tonight we'll know better than to get sh*tfaced, because we'll have learned, hopefully.
So you think 1973 has come home to roost permanently?
 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,576
431
126
Funny, I was just reading an article in The Economist the other day about this issue. I went back and dug it up online after a bit of searching. I think it'll help explain what's going on in a lot of oil-exporting nations where oil has tended to be the primary source of income for the local government.

Trouble in the pipeline

When the price of oil reached another record on May 6th, of over $122 a barrel, analysts pointed to attacks on pipelines in Nigeria and turmoil in Iraq as the immediate causes. Even small disruptions to supplies from such places can cause the price to jump, since only Saudi Arabia has the capacity to replace the lost production, and it does not seem inclined to do so.

But to understand how supplies became so scarce in the first place, one must look at the state of the oil industry in Russia, the world's second-biggest producer.

Over the past seven years, according to Citibank, Russia accounted for 80% of the growth in oil production outside the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The increase in its output in the early part of the decade matched the growth in demand from China and India almost barrel for barrel. Yet in April, production fell for the fourth month in a row. It is now over 2% below the peak of 9.9m barrels a day (b/d) reached in October last year.

Before that, the growth in Russia's output had been slowing steadily, suggesting that the drop is not a blip. Leonid Fedun, a vice-president of Lukoil, a local oil firm, says Russia's production will never top 10m b/d. The discovery that Russia can no longer be relied upon to cater to the world's ever-increasing appetite for oil is naturally helping to propel prices to record levels.

In principle, Russia's bonanza could continue for years: it has the world's seventh-biggest oil reserves, at 80 billion barrels, according to BP, a British oil firm. And oilmen reckon there are 100 billion more barrels to find??the biggest exploration prize in the world?, in the words of Robert Dudley, the boss of TNK-BP, BP's Russian joint venture. But Russia has regulated the industry so poorly that production is falling despite the soaring oil price.

?Tax is the major impediment,? says Ms Redman. The government levies an export duty of 65% at prices over $25 a barrel. Add to that various corporate, payroll and production taxes, oilmen complain, and the state creams off as much as 92% of profits. Executives at TNK-BP have argued that rising costs across the oil industry will make many investments in Russia unprofitable unless the tax regime is changed. As it is, TNK-BP accounts for a fifth of BP's production, but only a tenth of its profits.

The government does offer tax breaks on production from older fields. So oil firms, naturally, have been concentrating on squeezing as much oil as they can out of those. Until recently, that was an obvious priority anyway, since fields that had fallen into ruin after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s could be revived relatively easily and cheaply.

By mapping existing fields more precisely, installing new pumps and injecting water and chemicals into wells to maintain pressure, private oil firms were able to raise Russia's production from 6m b/d to almost 10m b/d, mainly from western Siberia. In 2003 alone, output jumped by 12%.

But this strategy is now yielding diminishing returns. Mr Fedun says the western Siberian fields have reached their natural limit. To keep production at today's levels requires ever more investment. To get Russia's output growing again, firms must make huge investments to develop new fields in remote provinces such as eastern Siberia and the Sakhalin region.

The government did provide some $4.5 billion in tax breaks last year. But this, the oil companies argue, is barely enough to keep production stable. In his inaugural speech to the Duma as prime minister on May 8th, Mr Putin said that taxes on the industry must be reduced.

However, new fields can take a decade to develop. The Kremlin has also failed to hand out exploration rights in the Arctic?the region oilmen consider most promising. And it says that in future the foreign firms with the expertise to tap offshore fields beneath frozen seas will be limited to minority shareholdings in big projects. ?Oil production will be whatever the government decides it to be,? says Mr Fedun.
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
9,717
2
0
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: Stunt
OPEC countries are having a tougher time pumping oil as their large easily accessed reserves are no longer at full capacity. They are now required to search for and drill small reserves increasing costs and barely maintaining the same production rate. The world's demand is increasing as the developing world do little to reduce consumption and the majority of the people in developing world are consuming more as their economies grow at double digit increases; where GDP growth is proportional to energy consumption. Therefore to make up for this increased demand non-OPEC countries have filled the void with drilling in the north sea, oil sands mining and other tight oil drilling. We are not running out of oil, we are running out of cheap oil; most of the oil sands, tight oil, and offshore drilling are only justified at $40-60 oil where OPEC's supplies were justified at much much less. Luckily gas stations have no competitive advantage at the moment and refiners have very low crack spreads meaning we are getting most of our gas increases exclusively from oil prices. Have you seen a Valero Energy chart lately? Down 33% in the last year...gas prices through the roof...refiners are dying. Therefore it's not a refining issue but a supply issue with the added demand. Luckily for the US and other 1st world nations, high oil prices are universal across the world and hurt China and India's growth far more than the US or EU. We can afford it, they cannot and they are not sitting on a ton of reserves; they must trade on the global market like everyone else.

See CIA https://www.cia.gov/library/pu...book/geos/xx.html#Econ">factbook</a>: Global Oil Consumption - 80.29 million bbl/day, Global Oil Production - 78.9 million bbl/day

It's tight boys and girls...get used to it...
There could be a point in there. If OPEC isn't keeping up with increases because they have to invest... then why aren't they? Is it because they don't want to? and/or because they want to control supply?
I guess I should note that I'm not trying to put all the "blame" on OPEC but they are a big target due to their market share and production controls. I think the US should be keeping up with their usage as well but sadly we've declined due to a great many reasons.
Keep in mind Exxon/Mobil have operations in every single OPEC country except Saudi Arabia and Iran...they are the ones who determine if investment is feasible or not.
Although with all the competition from oil companies and there are many, one must assume that if oil was indeed THAT easy to access and extract, they would. The value of the commodity on the world market is so high right now, it is in the oil companies best interest to pump as much as possible, not hold back as Dave seems to believe.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY


There could be a point in there. If OPEC isn't keeping up with increases because they have to invest... then why aren't they? Is it because they don't want to? and/or because they want to control supply?
I guess I should note that I'm not trying to put all the "blame" on OPEC but they are a big target due to their market share and production controls. I think the US should be keeping up with their usage as well but sadly we've declined due to a great many reasons.
Part of it is because of the oil is produced by state run oil companies. These state run oil companies tend to pocket the revenue instead of investing in their field to keep production of their fields up. Mexico is a prime example of this, there production is falling rapidly for this reason. While the older oil fields will likely never return to the volume they produced when they were first tapped, much can be done to stop the decline.

As an example i recently read about a texas well that was producing 200 barrels a day. It was redone and it now produces 6000 barrels a day. And the active rig count is at its highest levels in 22 years. Even with all this extra drilling, it appears they are only hoping to keep US output stable.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: Stunt
Keep in mind Exxon/Mobil have operations in every single OPEC country except Saudi Arabia and Iran...they are the ones who determine if investment is feasible or not.
[/quote]

I dont think that is the case. They may have some operation in opec countries, but I dont think they have anywhere near the control you claim.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Skoorb
We drink our faces off and expect to wake up at sunrise without a hangover. It's not realistic and no amount of gatorade can counter that drunk. We are now reaping the seeds of profligacy, and what a thorny bush it makes. So we'll toil all day in the sun and if we don't die of heatstroke, we'll have earned ourselves a beer, but tonight we'll know better than to get sh*tfaced, because we'll have learned, hopefully.
So you think 1973 has come home to roost permanently?
I see in this thread that you can still afford to drive. That means gasoline is still too cheap.

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

======================================
My wife and I went out for two short trips over the holiday weekend.

It was the least amount of cars I have ever seen on the Interstates on the Memorial Day holiday that I have ever seen in my lifetime.

No traffic jams anywhere and never dropped below speed limit.

While that part was nice it was eery.
 

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