only ONE state

[mPartialOb]

I'm not saying Kerry will win, but keep this in mind for perspective...

If Bush wins every state he won last election, but loses Ohio, Kerry wins.

It's THAT close folks.

And the Dems have the advantage of the "still mad about Florida" vote that can come out of the woodwork, while the Repubs only have the "we almost had the election stolen, but we still won" vote. Not quite as motivating, is it ?

Traditionally, the Dems have a larger percentage of supporters who fail to vote...while the Republicans have a relatively smaller percentage of "no-shows".

Lets assume for argument that the controversy over the last election will result in a high turnout across the board. ( as evidenced in part by the high turnouts in the Dem primaries )

That means that the Dems have room for huge gains in every state, while the Republicans have relatively less "room"...they already have a higher percentage of their voters voting.

Political scientists agree that the election will be decided by the 8% or so of "swing" voters, mostly moderate Dems who are conservative on economics, and moderate Conservatives who are liberal on social issues.

I can't see where the gay marriage Constitutional Amendment issue helped Bush much with these more socially liberal swing voters - Independents and Libertarians included. On the contrary, it only shored up his base whose vote was never in doubt.

Throw in the record spending, the record deficits, the credibility issues, net job losses, and the chaos in Iraq and it gets even more interesting.

In my biased analysis, the only way Bush wins is if Kerry just plain blows it...or if we suffer another terrorist attack on US soil. ( I'm not even sure if that would be positive or negative for Bush !?! )

What say you ?

 

[dmcowen674]

"What say you ? "

November, long way away.

 

[sMiLeYz]

I say people who say Bush is a lock for re-election are kidding themselves... we'll see though. Anger at Bush as at all time high in my area.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz
I say people who say Bush is a lock for re-election are kidding themselves... we'll see though. Anger at Bush as at all time high in my area.

A lot of months to get the brainwashing re-enforcement firmly in place.

 

[etech]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: sMiLeYz
I say people who say Bush is a lock for re-election are kidding themselves... we'll see though. Anger at Bush as at all time high in my area.

A lot of months to get the brainwashing re-enforcement firmly in place.

Yep, the dems will be going for those unemployed sheep. Dave, are you there?

 

[MonstaThrilla]

Originally posted by: mPartialOb

If Bush wins every state he won last election, but loses Ohio, Kerry wins.

It's THAT close folks.

If Bush wins every state he won last time except scant West Virginia and its 5 Electoral College votes, Kerry wins.

 

[mPartialOb]

yes, the Dems will work the unemployed angle...but they may not even need it.

Bush is practically delivering moderate Republicans to the Dems with his record spending,immigration policy and Constitutional meddling.

I can't figure his strategy out.

He's been plummeting in the polls for 10 straight months so what's he do to regain the votes of moderates ? He comes out on a religious / social issue with schemes of re-writing the Constitution.

That won't sit well with moderate Republicans, Independents, and Libertarians.

Why is he worried about shoring up a 'base' that only makes up about 35% of the vote and is going to vote for him regardless ? In the process, he blows ANY chance of securing moderate Dem votes and turns away more of the swing vote who will decide the election.

Man, he's gotta get Rove outta his ear...if it's not too late already.

 

[digitalsm]

Traditionally, the Dems have a larger percentage of supporters who fail to vote...while the Republicans have a relatively smaller percentage of "no-shows".

The entire post is NOT accurate. Republicans didnt come out and vote in large numbers until the 2002 elections. Democrats have always been good at moblilizing their voter base, the republicans historically haven't. That changed in 2002 though.

This election will come down to "soccer moms" and the new group "nascar dads".

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: MonstaThrilla

Originally posted by: mPartialOb

If Bush wins every state he won last election, but loses Ohio, Kerry wins.

It's THAT close folks.

If Bush wins every state he won last time except scant West Virginia and its 5 Electoral College votes, Kerry wins.

According to polls Bush is ahead of Kerry by a large margin(almost double digits) in the states he won in 2000. Kerry's margins in the states Gore won are less than 5%. It will be a close election, but I bet Bush wins.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: mPartialOb
yes, the Dems will work the unemployed angle...but they may not even need it.

Bush is practically delivering moderate Republicans to the Dems with his record spending,immigration policy and Constitutional meddling.

I can't figure his strategy out.

He's been plummeting in the polls for 10 straight months so what's he do to regain the votes of moderates ? He comes out on a religious / social issue with schemes of re-writing the Constitution.

That won't sit well with moderate Republicans, Independents, and Libertarians.

Why is he worried about shoring up a 'base' that only makes up about 35% of the vote and is going to vote for him regardless ? In the process, he blows ANY chance of securing moderate Dem votes and turns away more of the swing vote who will decide the election.

Man, he's gotta get Rove outta his ear...if it's not too late already.

Thats also not accurate, polls show Bush pulling 91% of registered republicans. Slightly better than Kerry is doing with registered democrats. The voter base is about 35% republicans, 40% democrats, and 25% moderates.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: mPartialOb
yes, the Dems will work the unemployed angle...but they may not even need it.

Bush is practically delivering moderate Republicans to the Dems with his record spending,immigration policy and Constitutional meddling.

I can't figure his strategy out.

He's been plummeting in the polls for 10 straight months so what's he do to regain the votes of moderates ? He comes out on a religious / social issue with schemes of re-writing the Constitution.

That won't sit well with moderate Republicans, Independents, and Libertarians.

Why is he worried about shoring up a 'base' that only makes up about 35% of the vote and is going to vote for him regardless ? In the process, he blows ANY chance of securing moderate Dem votes and turns away more of the swing vote who will decide the election.

Man, he's gotta get Rove outta his ear...if it's not too late already.

Bush has several congressional southern democrats supporting/campaigning for him. You are by far over exaggerating your posts. If Bush replaces Cheney with a northern republican, he'll easily make in gain some "blue states".

 

[MonstaThrilla]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: MonstaThrilla

Originally posted by: mPartialOb

If Bush wins every state he won last election, but loses Ohio, Kerry wins.

It's THAT close folks.

If Bush wins every state he won last time except scant West Virginia and its 5 Electoral College votes, Kerry wins.

According to polls Bush is ahead of Kerry by a large margin(almost double digits) in the states he won in 2000. Kerry's margins in the states Gore won are less than 5%. It will be a close election, but I bet Bush wins.

I'd like to see some sources to back that claim up, but to take those polls seriously now (including the nationwide polls putting both Kerry and Edwards ahead of Bush) is just a tad bit premature.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: MonstaThrilla

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: MonstaThrilla

Originally posted by: mPartialOb

If Bush wins every state he won last election, but loses Ohio, Kerry wins.

It's THAT close folks.

If Bush wins every state he won last time except scant West Virginia and its 5 Electoral College votes, Kerry wins.

According to polls Bush is ahead of Kerry by a large margin(almost double digits) in the states he won in 2000. Kerry's margins in the states Gore won are less than 5%. It will be a close election, but I bet Bush wins.

I'd like to see some sources to back that claim up, but to take those polls seriously now (including the nationwide polls putting both Kerry and Edwards ahead of Bush) is just a tad bit premature.

Zogby...

 

[MonstaThrilla]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: MonstaThrilla

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: MonstaThrilla

Originally posted by: mPartialOb

If Bush wins every state he won last election, but loses Ohio, Kerry wins.

It's THAT close folks.

If Bush wins every state he won last time except scant West Virginia and its 5 Electoral College votes, Kerry wins.

According to polls Bush is ahead of Kerry by a large margin(almost double digits) in the states he won in 2000. Kerry's margins in the states Gore won are less than 5%. It will be a close election, but I bet Bush wins.

I'd like to see some sources to back that claim up, but to take those polls seriously now (including the nationwide polls putting both Kerry and Edwards ahead of Bush) is just a tad bit premature.

Zogby...

You made the claim, show me...

 

[digitalsm]

A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O?Leary Report and Southern Methodist University?s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the ?blue states? ? or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the ?red states,? or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O?Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush?s job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president?s job performance was only fair or poor. Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president?s performance and good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President?s job performance.

On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40% margin a 49% to 40% margin [see attachment for detailed breakdown of results].

A majority of voters in the survey also reject the filibuster strategy employed by Senate Democrats against some of President Bush?s judicial nominees. This is consistent with polling results under President Clinton when voters rejected Republican efforts to block judicial nominees. Fifty-three percent of Blue State and 59% of Red State voters felt the Democratic filibuster of judicial nominees was wrong while 35% of Blue State and 32% of Red State voters feel a minority of Senators are right to use whatever means to necessary to block the nominees.

The full report is $50. And if you recall correctly, Zogby was the first to show Kerry ahead of Bush in national polls. National polls mean jack when its whoever wins each state, that gets the electoral votes for that state.

 

[Jmman]

Actually I am going to vote for Kerry even though I am pretty conservative. The reason why? Because I am tired of all of the Bush bashing crap I see in P&N. I am looking forward to some healthy Dem bashing once Kerry falls flat on his face....

 

[JackStorm]

Originally posted by: Jmman
Actually I am looking forward to some healthy Dem bashing once Kerry falls flat on his face....

Heh, I doubt you'll have to wait long before we get a healthy dose of Kerry/Dem bashing if he gets elected.

 

[MonstaThrilla]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O?Leary Report and Southern Methodist University?s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the ?blue states? ? or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the ?red states,? or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O?Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush?s job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president?s job performance was only fair or poor. Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president?s performance and good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President?s job performance.

On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40% margin a 49% to 40% margin [see attachment for detailed breakdown of results].

A majority of voters in the survey also reject the filibuster strategy employed by Senate Democrats against some of President Bush?s judicial nominees. This is consistent with polling results under President Clinton when voters rejected Republican efforts to block judicial nominees. Fifty-three percent of Blue State and 59% of Red State voters felt the Democratic filibuster of judicial nominees was wrong while 35% of Blue State and 32% of Red State voters feel a minority of Senators are right to use whatever means to necessary to block the nominees.

The full report is $50. And if you recall correctly, Zogby was the first to show Kerry ahead of Bush in national polls. National polls mean jack when its whoever wins each state, that gets the electoral votes for that state.

Well thanks for the citation.

Zogby also had Edwards way behind in Wisconsin, and had Dean within 3 points of Kerry in NH. Also, I do understand the concept of the Electoral College, which is why I pointed out the importance of West Virginia in my first post.

 

[mPartialOb]

It's eay to refute someone's statements when you spin them.

I never said that in 2000 Republicans turned out in record numbers.

I said that higher PERCENTAGES of their registered voters turned out in relation to percentages of registered Dems.

You're missing the point of my post.

The polling of each candidate amongst their base is somewhat irrelevant.

I am ASSUMING that each candidate will do well with their base.

It's the 8% or so of swing voters that will decide the election. Particularly the Independents and Libertarians.

Let's put it in real terms...I don't know ONE person who did NOT vote for Bush in the last election who now says they will. Yet I know scores of people who voted for Bush in the last election who now say they will not vote for him, and dozens more who are expressing doubts....and I'm in a pro-Bush Southern state.

How about you ? Do you know ONE non-Bush voter who has now come on board ?

If so, hold on to him...he's a rare collectors item.

 

[SuperTool]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O?Leary Report and Southern Methodist University?s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the ?blue states? ? or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the ?red states,? or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O?Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush?s job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president?s job performance was only fair or poor. Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president?s performance and good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President?s job performance.

On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40% margin a 49% to 40% margin [see attachment for detailed breakdown of results].

A majority of voters in the survey also reject the filibuster strategy employed by Senate Democrats against some of President Bush?s judicial nominees. This is consistent with polling results under President Clinton when voters rejected Republican efforts to block judicial nominees. Fifty-three percent of Blue State and 59% of Red State voters felt the Democratic filibuster of judicial nominees was wrong while 35% of Blue State and 32% of Red State voters feel a minority of Senators are right to use whatever means to necessary to block the nominees.

The full report is $50. And if you recall correctly, Zogby was the first to show Kerry ahead of Bush in national polls. National polls mean jack when its whoever wins each state, that gets the electoral votes for that state.

Does he break it down state by state or are blue states and red states pooled?
I think it has to be looked at each individual state. It's not going to matter if Bush wins 60% of the vote in the red states on average, if he loses Ohio or WV

 

[EagleKeeper]

There may also be other states that Bush could lose.
Nevada - due to the lies regarding Yucca mountain - "scientific evaluation"

 

[Pennstate]

EagleKeeper, don't I recall you supporting Bush last time around?

 

[Pennstate]

EagleKeeper, don't I recall you supporting Bush last time around?

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: Pennstate
EagleKeeper, don't I recall you supporting Bush last time around?

I actually have gone neutral for the last 3-4 elections. Nixon, Carter and Reagan were the last presidents that I voted for.

Liberal conserative/conservative liberal

 

[chowderhead]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper

Originally posted by: Pennstate
EagleKeeper, don't I recall you supporting Bush last time around?

I actually have gone neutral for the last 3-4 elections. Nixon, Carter and Reagan were the last presidents that I voted for.

Liberal conserative/conservative liberal

were you Switzerland? do you mean that you did not vote in the past 3-4 elections? just curious.



I think if they pick Richardson i.e. to energize the Hispanic vote, they could pick up Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizonia (possibily).