Originally posted by: Marauder911
Originally posted by: Armitage
Originally posted by: Marauder911
Originally posted by: FFMCobalt
What are you doing, exactly? Who is Scott Horowitz?
Technically I am doing something called Probabilistic Risk Assessment. In reality I am reading a lot of technical papers, and learning a lot of software that I will be using after I learn the theory in college. One bug thing I learned here so far is fault tree analysis, and a computer program CAFTA that was developed within the company I work for as a joint venture with Rolls Royce.
A lot of the work comes from NASA, which means we do risk analysis on space programs. So far, I have studied the fault tree for the MSR EEV, and will be doing a paper about resupplying the Hubble.
Until recently, I had a printout of the fault analysis tree for STS-107 (Columbia) here in my office. It was about 3' wide and maybe 14' long!
Anyway, Probalistic Risk Assesment is an interesting field ... it needs to be applied more often & more thoroughly. I had an intro class on failure of systems back in grad school.
That definitely wasn't the full tree. The book that I have is titled "Space Transportation System Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Integrated Loss of Vehicle (LOV) Model." My boss worked on this book, and it is 540 pages of 8.5X11.
The book you have may be a subset of the tree I have. The subset may be the one evaluating what they believed may have caused Columbia to fail. My boss had me read parts of the tree, and its amazing how the get certain values, and how small probabilities can be.
And I agree, PRA should be used more often. Until the challenger incident, NASA even kind of shrugged it off, and used a different, not necessarily as accurate method.