Ok, so we had the dot-com bust and now the housing bust...what's next?

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AndrewR

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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Any ideas on what the next "get rich quick" national-level scheme is going to be that then leads us into a financial crisis? First it was anything internet related, then it was any-house-at-any-cost-is-good -- what's the next area?

I haven't the foggiest idea. Perhaps the wisdom of AT can foretell the future (so I can get in on the boom years and punch out before the "bust"). :)
 
Engineer

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
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Commodities bubble bust (all it takes is one big ole US recession to pound that one in, IMO). All the speculation going on in that one as world wide traders short the US dollar and buy the commodities (oil, etc). Kaboom! :shocked:
 
Engineer

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
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Originally posted by: seemingly random
Maybe you should learn how to short the financial markets.
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Me? I'm not so sure it's too late to short some of the financial markets, unless you believe that the US downturn has just started. Hell, you may be right. Off to short the piss out of the market! :evil:
 
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seemingly random

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2007
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Originally posted by: Engineer
Me? I'm not so sure it's too late to short some of the financial markets, unless you believe that the US downturn has just started. Hell, you may be right. Off to short the piss out of the market! :evil:
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Intended for the op - but applies to anybody who can take the time to research it.

As far as the current state of things: we could drift along in a trading range for a while, as we have for that last few months, or the markets could drop for the inevitable cleansing and capitulation. I think some more hedge funds will go belly up along the way.
 
senseamp

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
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Next one is the dollar, whose decline will fuel a commodity boom, and then commodities will bust too.
 
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seemingly random

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2007
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Originally posted by: senseamp
Next one is the dollar, whose decline will fuel a commodity boom, and then commodities will bust too.
Click to expand...
Jebus - you think it still has more downside? Haven't looked at charts lately but this must be multi-decade lows.
 
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nergee

Senior member
Jan 25, 2000
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How about what the next growth boom is going to be......I say Bankruptcies......
 
senseamp

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Originally posted by: seemingly random
Originally posted by: senseamp
Next one is the dollar, whose decline will fuel a commodity boom, and then commodities will bust too.
Click to expand...
Jebus - you think it still has more downside? Haven't looked at charts lately but this must be multi-decade lows.
Click to expand...

It has huge downside still left. You ain't seen nothing yet. There are still a lot of countries propping it up with currency pegs to give their exporters an advantage. These countries are now experiencing serious inflation as a result, and will be forced to revalue their currencies, causing further decline in the dollar and inflation in the US as our Chinese and other imports increase in price. At some point, it will be cheaper to make something in the US, and then the decline will stem.
 
apoppin

apoppin

Lifer
Mar 9, 2000
34,890
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alienbabeltech.com
They have to rescue it .. for a bit .. for the 'short term' when it peaks next, sell
--then hang on with as little debt as possible and look to buy when the RE/stocks hits bottom
[you'll know *bottom* when Bush's friends the Mega Rich and Foreign Interests starts the grab on the USA's solid bargains rendered cheap by his intentional awful policies]

--longer term - then it depends on the political situation ... if we have McLame, Obama, or Hillary ... as Pres and the "mood" of the country and if we are still in a War or are wtihdrawing
----ask me again in 9 months ..

we may have Armageddon next .. or a decided upturn

 
A

AndrewR

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
11,157
0
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Originally posted by: Engineer
Commodities bubble bust (all it takes is one big ole US recession to pound that one in, IMO). All the speculation going on in that one as world wide traders short the US dollar and buy the commodities (oil, etc). Kaboom! :shocked:
Click to expand...

I wondered about that with all the things I've read about the oil market speculation taking place.

Maybe you should learn how to short the financial markets.
Click to expand...

I probably should, but I'm too focused on my new job and possibly buying a house over the next year. :)

Any recommendations on where to go to learn about it?

It has huge downside still left. You ain't seen nothing yet. There are still a lot of countries propping it up with currency pegs to give their exporters an advantage. These countries are now experiencing serious inflation as a result, and will be forced to revalue their currencies, causing further decline in the dollar and inflation in the US as our Chinese and other imports increase in price. At some point, it will be cheaper to make something in the US, and then the decline will stem.
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If that's the case, then why is the Euro so strong? They have the same problem we do with manufacturing moving overseas, particularly to China. I suppose they don't have the issue of the massive public debt we do, but they are also facing a significant and growing problem with caring for the aging population with a social welfare system -- a problem which makes our looming Social Security issue look like child's play. Japan is in serious trouble for the same reason very shortly.

I'll stop rambling. If someone could just answer the question about the Euro, I'd be happy. :)
 
B

BrownTown

Diamond Member
Dec 1, 2005
5,314
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Well its only a matter of time until Web 2.0 turns into Web Bubble 2.0, you seen what these companies are "worth"? Its absurd, I mean I know everyone uses Google and Facebook etc, but how often do they actually influence you to buy stuff? At some point people are gonna realise that they aren't really wroth tens of billions of dollars and their stock will crash, and those are the most stable, some of these smaller sites are gonna go the way of the first tech bubble where you go from being worth 50 million to 50 bucks in a few weeks..

I can more or less guarentee that one, only question is when (hopefully everyone will have sold their google stock AKA: toilet paper by then).
 
S

seemingly random

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2007
5,281
0
0
Originally posted by: AndrewR
Maybe you should learn how to short the financial markets.
Click to expand...
Any recommendations on where to go to learn about it?
Click to expand...
The same as buying hoping for the upside - just flip the chart upside down and look at weak companies and/or weak sectors.

If that's the case, then why is the Euro so strong?
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Because the rest of the world anticipated the u.s. financial crisis.

I believe a currency is only strong or weak relative to another. A 'strong' euro would indicate that it is strong relative to most others. And this is about the extent of my currency knowledge except that right now, europeans can have a pretty cheap vacation in the u.s. and we will have to bend over to go to europe.
 
ericlp

ericlp

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,133
219
106
Ok, so we had the dot-com bust and now the housing bust...what's next? Whats this BS about "HAD"? Were not even close to seeing the housing bust... Next will be the banking system with that the dollar and jobs.... The Airlines are feeling it real bad right now with ATA&Aloha and a few others not doing so good now.
 
M

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: seemingly random
Originally posted by: senseamp
Next one is the dollar, whose decline will fuel a commodity boom, and then commodities will bust too.
Click to expand...
Jebus - you think it still has more downside? Haven't looked at charts lately but this must be multi-decade lows.
Click to expand...

the dollar is already undervalued.

the next bubble will likely be oil/commodities, infact it already seems to be there.
 
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