Ok- looks like it's a fairly close race.

[actuarial]

You are right, it means nothing, but winning by such a margin (and it would be true for Romney) is hardly a statistical beating, yet I suspect it will be treated as such.

The issue is that, given the current system, the popular vote isn't necessarily representative of the proportion of people that support Obama vs Romney.

The fact that votes are meaningless in many states (since they are already so heavily in one camp) likely has an impact on participation, and if the decision was made on a true popular vote the current splits may not hold.

I'm not saying the impact is one way or the other, but the popular vote tally under the current system isn't just meaningless because it doesn't determine who the president is, it's meaningless because it's unlikely to be a true indication of the popularity of either candidate.

 

[Perknose]

I'm glad to see that Akin, Murdouch and the other "rapey" candidates were given the boot, it's the fringe views like that made me retreat from the Republicans. Hopefully more moderate voices will begin to assert themselves in the Republican Party...

Our country desperately needs a a Republican Party that is sane and responsible and non-obstructionist nut-case collection.

I hope this presages the end of the death grip that the Taliban-like far right has on the GOP, but I don't think we've reached that point as yet.

Sad, that.

 

[shadow9d9]

300+ to 200...SOOO close! Spin spin spin away.

 

[EagleKeeper]

300+ to 200...SOOO close! Spin spin spin away.

The EC is less of any mandate indication as is the overall popular vote.

Yet the popular vote can be skewed because of lack of participation in states that area solid lock to one direction of another.

A million people may not have voted in NY and NJ for the reason of the storm; yet it does not have any impact on the EC votes delivered.

Same in CA; lazy Dems do not get out to vote because they know their state is already locked up.
Republicans also realize that their vote for president is having no impact.
TX may be the same as CA in reverse.

Only incentive is for state and local issues.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

The EC is less of any mandate indication as is the overall popular vote.

The "popular vote" as measured in an EC election means nothing. In order to really know who would have won such an election, we need to have such an election.

 

[shadow9d9]

The EC is less of any mandate indication as is the overall popular vote.

Yet the popular vote can be skewed because of lack of participation in states that area solid lock to one direction of another.

A million people may not have voted in NY and NJ for the reason of the storm; yet it does not have any impact on the EC votes delivered.

Same in CA; lazy Dems do not get out to vote because they know their state is already locked up.
Republicans also realize that their vote for president is having no impact.
TX may be the same as CA in reverse.

Only incentive is for state and local issues.

Since the EC has been around since the inception of the US, that is all that matters. Nate silver at 538 was 100% correct.. to claim that it was "close" was and is an absolute JOKE.