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Ok- looks like it's a fairly close race.

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
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How long will it take for one side or the other to claim vindication or a mandate? ;)

I say oh, about 15 minutes.

In either case I believe that this ought to be looked at as anything else. Obama isn't going to whup Romney which I thought he might some months back, and Romney can't seem to find a position long enough for anyone to find a position to vote for, yet parties and their partisans will mostly declare a great victory.

Go figure.
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
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Fairly close? What are YOU watching?

Obama is outperforming the polls, and the polls already had him winning easily.

Yes, Obama is going to end up whipping Romney. Possibly by over 100 EV.
 

Hayabusa Rider

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Fairly close? What are YOU watching?

Obama is outperforming the polls, and the polls already had him winning easily.

Yes, Obama is going to end up whipping Romney. Possibly by over 100 EV.
I was talking people, not EC. How many percentage points do you think Obama will win by?
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
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Eh who cares? All about the EC right now.
It's always about the EC, nevertheless those who have had their votes discarded in the winner take all process that most states are still there. One could devise a scenario where a candidate overwhelmingly wins the popular vote and still loses. People however are more than just electoral votes. That's who representatives are supposed to be accountable to, well in theory at least.
 

LumbergTech

Diamond Member
Sep 15, 2005
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It's always about the EC, nevertheless those who have had their votes discarded in the winner take all process that most states are still there. One could devise a scenario where a candidate overwhelmingly wins the popular vote and still loses. People however are more than just electoral votes. That's who representatives are supposed to be accountable to, well in theory at least.
The conservatives at work have been bumbling about that scenario for weeks..When it doesn't happen , I think it will be particularly satisfying.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
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I said 2.5-3% before today. But now it looks more like 3.5-4%.

Don't really care, though. It means nothing.
You are right, it means nothing, but winning by such a margin (and it would be true for Romney) is hardly a statistical beating, yet I suspect it will be treated as such.
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
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The same people who insisted the polls were all wrong and they were sure they were going to win will need a new dishonest narrative. That would happen no matter what the margin of victory.
 

mshan

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3.5% - 4% popular vote margin would be huge, and unexpected.

Really will see how intransigent wing nuts in lame duck Congress is about going off the fiscal cliff, but message from public is get it resolved (balance of revenue increases and spending cuts).

Can only hope that stock market anticipated blowout and that why it started to rally today (this is probably wishful thinking).

Margin really should have been 1.5% - 2% max. And I think Nate Silver of 538, way back, was projecting 51 / 49 tight race when economy seemed in worse shape and Romney had not started his campaign of gaffes and ineptness.
 

FelixDeCat

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Aug 4, 2000
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You are right, it means nothing, but winning by such a margin (and it would be true for Romney) is hardly a statistical beating, yet I suspect it will be treated as such.
Well if you have Obama saying deficits were reduced during the last four years, despite surpassing $1,000,000,000,000 for the first time and growing annually ever since, then you can have any sorts of lies comming from his campaign.

Kind of like when Saddam Hussien claimed he defeated America back in 1991 because he was not overthrown at that time despite being forced out of Kuwait.

Go figure.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
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3.5% - 4% popular vote margin would be huge, and unexpected.

Really will see how intransigent wing nuts in lame duck Congress is about going off the fiscal cliff, but message from public is get it resolved (balance of revenue increases and spending cuts).

Can only hope that stock market anticipated blowout and that why it started to rally today (this is probably wishful thinking).

Margin really should have been 1.5% - 2% max. And I think Nate Silver of 538, way back, was projecting 51 / 49 tight race when economy seemed in worse shape and Romney had not started his campaign of gaffes and ineptness.
You are looking at relative expectations. I'm looking at an absolute difference between the two sides of 4%.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
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Once Florida and Ohio break for Obama it will be over. Obama will be taking Florida since the only major county left that could change the outcome is a democrat heavy county (last I checked the president had a 20 point advantage).

Ohio looks like its going to go to Obama as well.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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I was talking people, not EC. How many percentage points do you think Obama will win by?
Maybe slightly more than President Al Gore did in 2000, when he got half a million more votes than ex-governor Bush. ;)
 

shira

Diamond Member
Jan 12, 2005
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I said 2.5-3% before today. But now it looks more like 3.5-4%.

Don't really care, though. It means nothing.
Well, a nice margin would give Obama SOME claim to a mini-mandate when he and the right once again lock horns.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
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Maybe slightly more than President Al Gore did in 2000, when he got half a million more votes than ex-governor Bush. ;)
Heh, who can say? ;)

What I would love to see is either a popular vote or failing that "winner take all" laws struck down. I think that tossing out votes isn't right and a proportional system would be far more representative.
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
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Republicans are not going to budge on taxes.

They will force the Democrats to play the hand of letting all tax cuts expire and take the heat for letting them rise on middle class families.

If anyone thinks anything is going to change in Washington they are mistaken. The GOP has shown that they are willing to shoot themselves in the foot at will. They will go down dying in a pool of their own blood before they ever compromise.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
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Republicans are not going to budge on taxes.

They will force the Democrats to play the hand of letting all tax cuts expire and take the heat for letting them rise on middle class families.

If anyone thinks anything is going to change in Washington they are mistaken. The GOP has shown that they are willing to shoot themselves in the foot at will. They will go down dying in a pool of their own blood before they ever compromise.
And Dems are not going to budge on out of control and reckless spending. "They will go down dying in a pool of their own blood before they compromise".

In reality, Republicans will agree to some tax increases (hopefully on the middle class where all the money is) and Dems will agree to some spending cuts and freezing entitlements where all the spending is, so we can avoid a further decrease in our credit rating.

We will still have huge deficits because we will still be trying to spend way more than we can afford to pay for and I firmly believe that America will default on a 20 trillion+ balance, causing a drop on the face value of the dollar of 50% or more. :'(
 

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