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Oh no... this does not look good for Democrats in terms of 2024 outlook.

Amol S.

Golden Member
Mar 14, 2015
1,401
314
136
It seems Biden is not doing good in the polls recently.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDateSample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other/Undecided
McLaughlin & AssociatesSeptember 9–14, 20211,000 (LV)47%50%3%
Redfield and Wilton StrategiesSeptember 4–5, 20211,148 (LV)45%42%13%
Emerson CollegeAugust 30 – September 1, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.7%46%47%7%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 16–17, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.0%37%43%20%
YouGov/Yahoo NewsJuly 30 – August 2, 20211,552 (A)47%37%16%
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super PacJuly 8, 20211,000 (LV)46%43%11%
YouGov/Yahoo NewsJune 22–24, 20211,592 (A)47%35%18%
YouGov/Yahoo NewsMay 24–26, 20211,588 (A)46%36%18%
YouGov/Yahoo NewsMay 11–13, 20211,561 (A)48%36%16%
Ipsos/ReutersApril 12–16, 20211,106 (A)45%28%27%
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super PacApr 3–7, 20211,000 (LV)46%42%12%

Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

This is even worst

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDateSample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other/Undecided
McLaughlin & AssociatesSeptember 9–14, 20211,000 (LV)47%49%4%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJuly 29 – August 3, 20211,000 (LV)46%49%5%
Echelon InsightsJune 18–22, 20211,001 (RV)47%40%13%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJune 16–20, 20211,000 (LV)45%49%6%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMay 12–18, 20211,000 (LV)45%49%6%
 
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abj13

Senior member
Jan 27, 2005
989
700
136
Further context is needed. The two polls you are "worried" about come from Rasmussen and McLaughlin who both have a pretty clear Republican bias. McLaughlin badly missed the national polls in 2018 (a good year for pollsters) with a significant Republican lean. Rasmussen is similarly well known for their consistent Republican bias, having Trump leading Biden for parts of 2020.

Of course Biden's hopes have taken a massive dash, he took a massive hit in the approval polls. But voters vote around election day, not 3 years in advance. Trump had his lowest approval numbers at this point in his presidency (I sure hope nobody will try to recreate the stupidity of his administration and single term, but just saying as a recent comparison).
 

Amol S.

Golden Member
Mar 14, 2015
1,401
314
136
This is pointless it is over 3 years away.
Doubt 8 million people will flip
Biden has not yet pushed hard enough for congress to pass any major bills that he had promised the Democrats will pass, like H.R.1 or the Health Care reform bills. If the Democrats do not keep the house and senate in 2022, it very likely that they will not pass in the two years that follow. That would hurt the Democrats a lot in terms of 2024. Either Biden has to keep his base together for the next 4 years, or pass the bills and that too would keep the base together with less effort.
 

Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
6,919
2,428
136
Biden has not yet pushed hard enough for congress to pass any major bills that he had promised the Democrats will pass, like H.R.1 or the Health Care reform bills. If the Democrats do not keep the house and senate in 2022, it very likely that they will not pass in the two years that follow. That would hurt the Democrats a lot in terms of 2024. Either Biden has to keep his base together for the next 4 years, or pass the bills and that too would keep the base together with less effort.
2 words.. Manchin Sinema
 
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Amol S.

Golden Member
Mar 14, 2015
1,401
314
136
No mention of the first reconciliation bill, that expanded the child tax credit and has basically halved poverty for children this year? I guess that's not a big deal.
Not everyone has a child... the point is, Biden has to have some form of good impact on the majority of his voter base. If he only goes for some, only those that he impacted in a good way would certainly vote for Biden. The rest may or may not. Even though it is quite early... you also have to think if Biden is going to run for 2024 or not. What if Harris runs, do you think she would win?
 
Feb 4, 2009
31,385
11,788
136
Way to early for this stuff.
However yes the Presidents party tend to lose seats during the mid term elections.
That is why ALL of us need to vote, Bernie Bros included even if that mean voting for a un-bernie like canidate. Getting one thing is far better than getting none or worse losing stuff.
 
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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
29,670
10,032
136
Not everyone has a child... the point is, Biden has to have some form of good impact on the majority of his voter base. If he only goes for some, only those that he impacted in a good way would certainly vote for Biden. The rest may or may not. Even though it is quite early... you also have to think if Biden is going to run for 2024 or not. What if Harris runs, do you think she would win?
If Biden doesn't get any legislative wins until the next election, will you be voting for the Republican presidential nominee? If yes, why? If no, then why do you think other Americans will vote for a party who has a historically low approval rating and who has been losing voters for years?
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,109
12,921
126
Way to early for this stuff.
However yes the Presidents party tend to lose seats during the mid term elections.
That is why ALL of us need to vote, Bernie Bros included even if that mean voting for a un-bernie like canidate. Getting one thing is far better than getting none or worse losing stuff.
I dont know, man.
I been voting all my life.
Things just get worse and worse.

Of course, that could be my depression and anxiety.
 
Dec 10, 2005
21,289
2,883
126
Not everyone has a child... the point is, Biden has to have some form of good impact on the majority of his voter base. If he only goes for some, only those that he impacted in a good way would certainly vote for Biden. The rest may or may not. Even though it is quite early... you also have to think if Biden is going to run for 2024 or not. What if Harris runs, do you think she would win?
Calm down there, Chicken Little.
 
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Amol S.

Golden Member
Mar 14, 2015
1,401
314
136
If Biden doesn't get any legislative wins until the next election, will you be voting for the Republican presidential nominee? If yes, why? If no, then why do you think other Americans will vote for a party who has a historically low approval rating and who has been losing voters for years?
There is the option of not voting ... I never voted. Although I did want to vote for Obama in 2008, but I was too young and was in 7th grade. My speech teacher told me McCain would be a wonderful president who would draft kids my age to fight for America in the Middle East. It scared me. She was like, "don't you want to fight for your country?"

I do not want vote in 2020 election because I did not like Mr.MAGA conspirator, nor did I want to waste my time voting when I know my state and the house representative was ofcourse going to be Democrat. There was no way the New York was going to vote for Mr.MAGA.
 
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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
6,850
5,798
136
There is the option of not voting ... I never voted. Although I did want to vote for Obama in 2008, but I was too young and was in 7th grade. My speech teacher told me McCain would be a wonderful president who would draft kids my age to fight for America in the Middle East. It scared me. She was like, "don't you want to fight for your country?"

I do not want vote in 2020 election because I did not like Mr.MAGA conspirator, nor did I want to waste my time voting when I know my state and the house representative was ofcourse going to be Democrat. There was no way the New York was going to vote for Mr.MAGA.
If you don't vote, stop bitching about politics and go binge watch Storage Wars.
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
9,894
1,744
126
Polls can turn on a dime. And they will. We forget how it was during and under Donald Trump but as 2024 approaches the reality of Donald Trump returning as president, again, will set in. People will remember the horrors of Donald Trump and I would say the horrors of the covid pandemic and people will also link the two. No one will want to return to the days of full on pandemic nor full on Donald Trump. I don’t worry about Joe Biden nor his chances come 2024, but I do worry about his health.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
6,850
5,798
136
Why does one need to vote to talk about politics?
Your neighbors are trying to put out the fucking fire burning down your house. Meanwhile, you're holding a bucket of water and are flagging your neighbors down to chat instead of throwing the bucket of water on your burning house...and you expect your neighbors to give a shit about what you're blathering on about?

You'd rather talk about your house burning down than help put it out?

Yikes.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,446
4,063
126
This is pointless it is over 3 years away.
I find it hard to imagine Donald Trump winning in 2024. His baggage is way too heavy and stinky, the novelty and wonder is gone, he has too many enemies famous and otherwise, and they will vote. All the MSM (maybe not Fox but I don't consider them mainstream) say again and again outright that his claims of election fraud are totally unfounded.
 

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