Why the Dow at 10,000 means anything at all
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the world's most closely watched stock index, touched the sky ever so briefly March 16 when it crossed the 10,000 mark.
Some cynics discount it as the meaningless crossing of an arbitrary mark. There is no empirical reason why 10,000 is more important than 10,200 or 9,900. The Dow's 30 companies represent only a fraction of the total market, a majority of which is on a downward trend. Plus, the S&P 500 has largely replaced the Dow as the true performance benchmark.
But such milestones are important. Crossing the 10,000 mark represents something unimaginable when Charles Dow created the index. It seemed way off even as short as eight years ago when the Dow was in the low 2,000s.
Dow 10,000 is more than a number, just as the year 2000 is more than a number. The stock market's rise is the most potent symbol of the country's recovery from its deep malaise at the start of this decade. Many wrote off the U.S. as a basket case plagued with high labor costs, bad loans and a dwindling manufacturing base. Predictions that the country would become a subsidiary of Japan Inc. were common.
Human psychology is most comfortable when it can keep projecting current trends forward, either good or bad. The talk now is of a new era, of the death of business cycles and how value doesn't matter anymore.
The reality is that prolonged periods of exuberance are often followed by long periods of despair and vice versa. When the Dow crossed 1,000 in 1972, few saw the 1973-74 bear market lurking around the corner. It proved viscious, lasting two years. It would take another 95 months for stocks to regain their old highs.
The warnings are there. A third or more of the world economy is in recession. Thousands of other stocks, especially those of small companies, continue to march lower. The market's upward move is concentrated in fewer and fewer companies and despite a strong economy, earnings growth is anemic to nonexistent.
Maybe it won't last forever. But in a world that gives us so few opportunities to celebrate, investors should grab every chance they can get.