* OFFICIAL * Prediction Thread

[StageLeft]

P&N has an awful lot of prophets. Many people say "I predicted that" or "As I've been saying for years, this would happen", etc. Much of it is untrue or selective. This thread represents an effort to cement the bluster and hopefully reduce the vast levels of BS by most of us here. Hopefully it will take off

Recommended Guidelines:
1) Be Specific: A good prediction is properly qualitative or quantifiable. So, instead of "The market is going to crash soon", say "The DOW will hit 6K by the end of 2008." If there is no specific timeline and/or concise milestone, your prediction is probably meaningless.

2) Avoid editing a post after making it. If you have a post edited on Oct 13 that was first written in March, there's no way to validate that you didn't change it substantially on Oct 13.

3) The more extreme your prediction, the bigger the win when you get it right! Instead of saying that oil will be $150/barrel again at the end of the year, say it's going to be 250. That is so hard for most to believe that if it truly happens you'll be revered a P&N predictive god.

 

[nageov3t]

at some point, something bad will happen. and then later, it will get better. the politicians in office will have no actual impact on either the problem or solution but will blame the cause on the people who came before them and take full credit for the solution themselves.

 

[LGT]

aha! this is fun.. i do believe i can see the future so heres my input
Dow 11500 end of 2008
Obama will be president
and oil will be $130 at end of 2008

---
I predict that you will be banned in the next 30 seconds for being the same person that registered as immediately. Wow, I am correct! What do I win?
AnandTech Moderator Evadman

 

[brencat]

We will have a significant relief rally (I'll take no credit for today since futures are up) that takes us back close to 10k on the Dow before we retest the lows, possibly into the 7000s on the Dow before year end.

The dollar weakens substantially within 6 mos as the sheer weight of the bailout plus other money printing operations to save our financial system comes to a head. Not sure if we will retest the lows but $1.55/EUR is possible again.

Unemployment will hit a peak of 8 - 8.5% before recovery begins.

 

[dmcowen674]

At the right age determined by an indiscriminate being that gives rights to cells, everyone's life in here will end.

 

[Moonbeam]

I predict that Mata Amritanandamayi will hug and kiss thousands of people because God manifests Himself through her being.

 

[alchemize]

I predict that the usual predicters professing their self-prediction skillz will make no predictions in this thread.

 

[shira]

A beautiful young woman who I've never met before will come up to me and say, "I want you and need you."

And then I will wake up.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: alchemize
I predict that the usual predicters professing their self-prediction skillz will make no predictions in this thread.

That is a pretty good prediction :0

 

[alchemize]

I predict the "religious zealots" thread will be a flypaper for stupid!

/cleans some sticky off his wings.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: alchemize
I predict that the usual predicters professing their self-prediction skillz will make no predictions in this thread.

I predict you will wrong, as usual.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

The next POTUS will not capture OBL.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: alchemize
I predict that the usual predicters professing their self-prediction skillz will make no predictions in this thread.

I predict you will wrong, as usual.

Time for your meds, old lady, you're becoming incoherent. Let's hear those predictions!

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER
The next POTUS will not capture OBL.

How about kill?

 

[dennilfloss]

I predict a Liberal minority government as today's election result.:heart:

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: dennilfloss
I predict a Liberal minority government as today's election result.:heart:

wtf? Today is election day in Canada?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: dennilfloss
I predict a Liberal minority government as today's election result.:heart:

wtf? Today is election day in Canada?

I had forgotten, too. I found a projection for another conservative minority gov, though, not a liberal one, but really the ONLY thing I've heard about this is in the thread from a couple weeks ago about Oct 14 being the day.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: dennilfloss
I predict a Liberal minority government as today's election result.:heart:

wtf? Today is election day in Canada?

Hi, welcome back to the thread!

Back on topic:

Do it for real this time?

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER
The next POTUS will not capture OBL.

How about kill?

That is tough one. Can we I.D. him through DNA? Because there won't be much left if we Tomahawk his ass. But my prediction is- his death will have been due to natural causes, if his body is ever found. And he has likely already expired as I type this.

 

[CycloWizard]

I predict that Obama will win in a landslide, but will never take office. Martial law will be declared January 18 during the NFL playoffs just before the inauguration, allowing consolidation of neocon power under continuation of government laws that are already in place. I will be safely out of the country on a beach in St. Maarten at the time if anyone needs me.

 

[ProfJohn]

I get the feeling that Obama will win, but I don't think it will be a 'landslide'

Still a little early to get an accurate read though. Enough people are undecided that the election could go either way.

At this point I think Obama gets Ohio, Florida and Colorado and McCain holds VA, and NC.

BTW go back and look at past election results. Besides 2000 and 2004 the winners typically pile up 370+ electoral votes in almost every election. In other words, if Obama gets to 364, as RCP has him at now, it will not be a huge victory by historical terms. Clinton hit 370 both times for example.

 

[seemingly random]

obama wins 40+ states and 55% +/-2 popular vote.

During his term, he will screw up something, go down significantly in opinion polls, be resurrected and become one of the most popular presidents ever.

 

[ProfJohn]

55% ??? Are you nuts.

Reagan got 58.8% in his second election and received the MOST electoral votes in history.
Bush 41 got 53% of the vote and won 41 states!!!

Obama might get to 53% which would be a HUGE victory. But more likely he ends up around 51% with McCain getting 47 or 48.

 

[seemingly random]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
55% ??? Are you nuts.
...

Probably. Unlike you, I'm unencumbered by historical statistics.

I was just following the op's instructions. Wouldn't it be fun though if I was wrong and it turns out to be 60+%?

Obama probably won't get any get any of the hardcore southern states (sc, ga, al, ms) but there seems to be movement in local races towards a change - many locals are inhabited by republicans now.

 

[alchemize]

Bump for the predictors.

Maybe I'll just start recording them.

Techs predicts we'll invade Cuba as an October suprise.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2238875&enterthread=y

Dave predicts McCain wins by a landslide.

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Like I said unless Obama wins North Carolina McCain doesn't even have to campaign.

Like I said I hope I am wrong which is very very rare.

Crossing fingers for very very rare.