Next? Probably no one until Norv Turner and/or Raheem Morris get fired.
Look at it by division:
AFC East:
New England - Safe
New York Jets - Safe
Buffalo Bills - Unlikely. He's only in his second year, and the players seem to like him. I'd say 15-25% chance he gets canned
Miami Dolphins - Already fired Tony Sparano
AFC North:
Baltimore Ravens - Safe
Pittsburgh Steelers - Safe
Cincinnati Bengals - Safe. Even if they don't make the playoffs, the continuity between Lewis and the young core is something they'll want to keep.
Cleveland Browns - Unlikely. Shurmur is a horrible coach, but he's in his first year, and I doubt the Browns will swallow the rest of his contract. 5-10% likely to be fired.
AFC South:
Texans - Safe
Titans - Safe. The Titans overachieved, especially with Chris Johnson's contract situation.
Jacksonville - Already fired Jack Del Rio
Indianapolis - Unlikely. The players like Jim Caldwell, and this season was obviously a wash with the Manning injury. 0-5% chance he's fired
AFC West:
Denver Broncos - Safe
Oakland Raiders - Unlikely, but possible. Yes, there've been injuries, but it's just same-old, same-old with the Raiders. Jackson is popular, and Davis hates paying more than one coach at a time (see also: Firing Lane Kiffin "with cause") so this is unlikely, but with him, you never know. If they lose out from here, it could happen. 25-35% chance he's fired.
San Diego Chargers - Very likely they fire Norv Turner. It's almost impossible for the Chargers to make the playoffs, and that's probably what it would take for them to retain him (and even then, he's probably worn out his welcome). 95% chance he's gone.
Kansas City Chiefs - Already fired Todd Haley
NFC East:
New York Giants - The win on Sunday Night might have saved him his job, but it's possible the Giants make a move, regardless. Coughlin also might be tired of this group and step away, although that's less likely. They're still not a lock for the playoffs, and if they don't make them, it's more likely they'll make a move. In all, 25-35% chance he's gone.
Dallas Cowboys - Safe, although Jason Garrett is likely to be the #1 hot seat coach next year. If the Cowboys choke away the playoffs in embarrassing fashion, AND a big name becomes available (Think: Bill Cowher), the it's possible. Anything other than that is admitting a mistake, and Jerry Jones is unlikely to do that. 25-35% chance they make a move.
Philadelphia Eagles - Safe. They probably should fire Andy Reid, but they'll give him at least one more shot with this group. Management thinks he's "earned" it. 10-20% chance they make a move.
Washington Redskins - Safe. They'll give Shannahan at least 3 years to build his program.
NFC North - Safe
Detroit Lions - Safe, but only because the Bears seem intent on choking away a Wild Card berth. It's unlikely management would part with Jim Schwartz after their most successful season in a long time, but if the discipline thing takes [yet another] ugly turn, anything is possible. 5-15% chance they make a change.
Chicago Bears - Safe. Lovie Smith is an elder statesman, and with the injuries to the Bears, there hasn't been any talk of a coaching change.
Minnesota Vikings - Safe. They'll give Frazier another year -- at least -- to see what he can get out of Christian Ponder.
NFC South:
New Orleans Saints - Safe
Atlanta Falcons - Safe
Carolina Panthers - Safe
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - This team is in complete disarray, although perhaps it's not entirely because of coaching. Raheem Morris is likely gone. 75-85% chance they make a move.
NFC West:
San Fransisco 49ers - Safe
Arizona Cardinals - Safe.
Seattle Seahawks - Safe
St. Louis Rams - Steve Spagnuolo has only one more year on his contract so he's a decent candidate to be canned, and depending on what Sam Bradford has to say, they could have a replacement in-house (Josh McDaniels). 65-75% chance they make a move.
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