Official March Madness Analysis

SuRgEoN

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Oct 20, 1999
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Just a few observations and research will build upon this

#1 seeds--All have to be locks. This is as close as you come to a Lo_ _

#2 seeds--Very strong this year. Kentucky, Uconn, Okie State, and Wake all have a shot at making a run to the final four. Probably the strongest 2's Ive seen in the last 6-7 years.

#3 seeds--Zona is my team, but Utah State could give them trouble if they find a way to slow the game down. Ill take a hard look at Utah State with the points. Kansas will be way too strong for Bucknell. Guards, and Simien will be too much to handle. Looking at a blowout here. Interested to see status of Langford. Winthrop has tremendous guards that can run with anybody in the entire country, but I think Turiaf and Morrison are too solid to prevent any Gonzaga upset. Niagra is an interesting team to look at. They can flat out score. Ill be looking to take them with the points. You might say Oklahoma has too much muscle, but I think Mendez is one of the most underrated interior players in all of ball. The kid averages 24 and 10.5.

#4 seeds---Florida is playing tremedous ball as of late. They have the experience with Walsh, ROberson and Lee. But, I have a strange feeling about them. I never liked Donovan. Ill be looking at Ohio and the points as Vegas will play on the public's perception of Florida's great recent play. Might also take a stab at Ohio to win in my bracket. Syracuse/Vermont also intrigues me. Coppenrath can score 40 on any given night, but I think Boeheim takes him out of this one. They are scary though playing inspired ball for their beloved coach is retiring at the end of the year. Cuse has too much talent, but I think Vermont can give them a scare. Possible play of Vermonet with the points Louisville should roll LA-Lafayette. I wouldn't want to play them as they should come in with a chip on their shoulder because I believe they got ripped off in their seeding (Pitino should play up the no respect angle. Boston College should beat Penn because of superior talent, but they haven't blown anyone out all year. They might struggle with Penn's style. Penn is a very well coached team, and if BC could barely beat Yale earlier in the year, I think Penn can keep this very close. Playing Penn with the points most likely.

#5 seeds---The infamous 5/12 upset. I hate how everyone and their mother, sister, daughter, and best friend know abou this. All you ever hear from people who couldnt tell the differece between Kentucky and E. Kentucky is "I know a 12 would beat a 5." Having said that, I like a few 12's this year especially with the points. Ill be almost positively taking ODU and New Mexico with the points. Will be taking a in depth look at straight up upsets over both. Nova and Mich State have put up some pretty weak performances this year. On the other hand, I don't see Bama or Georgia Tech losing. These teams went DEEP into the tourney last year, and have most of the same cast back this year. They will have too much experience for teams that don't have much. I go to GW and know thi steam very well, and don't see how they have any shot at beating Tech. They just don't play the fundamental D neccesary for stopping Tech enough times. Plus, the Yellow Jackets are starting to roll. Will be hesitantly looking at Tech and Bama with the points

#6 seeds---Wisconsin is a very tough minded defensive team and will look to grind out every game they are in. Northern Iowa arguably got into the tounrey, and I might agree that they shouldn't be there over a team like Indiana. ANyone remember the ref who was the AD at N. Iowa who %^%^& Indiana on that call?? What do you know, Indiana is out and N. Iowa is in. But, every year some the teams who people say shouldn't be there end up making a little run. I think this will be a low scoring, grind it out type of game. looking at N. Iowa and the points. Hopefully, that kid jacobsen (I think that is his name) gets hot from 3. UAB is another one of those teams that questionably snuck in the dance. I think LSU is too much for them. Brandon Bass is a nightmare matchup for them, and I think they will dominate the glass. I look for a BIG LSU win. Texas Tech is a stay away team for me in every tournamnet. Bob Knight's teams always sem to sh!t the bed when they are the higher seed in the first round. UCLA is very young and I don't knwo if they have the toughness to stay with Tech. However, if Farmar and Dijon Thompson get hot, they should have a good shot. Tech should iwn, but Im not toucking the spread. I love UTEP to take down Utah straight up and ATS. I think Utah is overrated, and teams recognize how valuable Bogut is to there success. They do play outstanding defense (especially Jackson who can shut down anyone), but I just don't think they can score enouygh against a team line UTEP. They will double Bogut and force someone else to beat them. I don't think they have the weapons outside of Bogut. Omar Thomas is one of the most underrated scorers in all of college hoops, and their PG Rivera is playing out of his head lately. I think their guards get it done here.

#7 seeds---I hope to God Charlotte is favored over NC State. I think the strength of schedule NC State had compared to Charlotte's will be the difference. Hodge is on a mission this year IMO. They can be shut down if they face a team that plays smothering D, but I think this is a great matchup for the Pack because Charlotte does not play great D. NC STate wins SU. Cincy has not impressed me all year. I can not get a good grasp of who this team is. Having said that, I don't know if Iowa can hang with them. Cincy should win, but this might be another spot to take an upset or Iowa with the points if its a pretty high number. WVU is playing its best ball of the year. This line might be a little high because the public just saw their great run in the Big East tourney. Ill be looking at the Blue Jays and the points (possibly a SU upset). I also like SMC over the Salukis. Ill take the points here if its anything over 2.5. Kickert should pose some matchup problems for SIU becuase of his tremendous outside shooting. He is one of only 2/3 players in the country to shoot over 45% from 3, 80% from the line, and over 50% from the field. Very underrated player.


I'll break down the 8/9's later, just breifly. Probably going to be a typical year though, Take the 9 over the 8. Leaning towards every 10 seed with the points, and possible straight up wins

 

A5

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Jun 9, 2000
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Think you could put up a detailed analysis of GWU? People at the GT board I read are begging for some info... :)

<-- Goes to GT
 

SuRgEoN

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Oct 20, 1999
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Originally posted by: A5
Think you could put up a detailed analysis of GWU? People at the GT board I read are begging for some info... :)

<-- Goes to GT

If Georgia Tech loses to GW I will be stunned...

This will be the year of the 13's over the 4's:

Ohio(13) over Florida (4) AND Penn will give Boston College all it wants. I know Ohio had some really bad losses early in the season (St. Francis of Pennsylvania?) but they are hot now when it counts
 

SuRgEoN

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Oct 20, 1999
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Originally posted by: A5
Think you could put up a detailed analysis of GWU? People at the GT board I read are begging for some info... :)

<-- Goes to GT


Im going to hold off on an analysis right now until I hear more word on Jack.
 

SuRgEoN

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Oct 20, 1999
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Originally posted by: TheBDB
What about the 8/9s?

8 / 9 seeds--I don't spend a lot fo tiem with this matchup because the winner will have to play the 1 seed. While I recognize that there is a pretty good chance of an upset (ex UAB over KY last year), it could wither be the 8 or 9. Too risky to have one of these seeds going far. As far as ATS, Im leaning towards Iowa State +1 over the Gophers. Obviously, the ML will havea little more value. I just think their guard play is superior. Blaylock and especially STinson should be able to control the pace of thsi game. I think theyll force enough turnovers to be able to win this game. In order for Minny to win this game, Vincent Grier will have to score about 35 (which he is capable of doing), but Ill take my chances on him not doing that. Guards over one Forward any day of the week. Texas/Nevada matchup just confuses me the more I look at it. Theyve both had some BAD losses lately (Texas getting blown out by Colorado and Nevada losing as the 1 seed in the WAC tourney to Boise State) so I really have no idea who will show up for this one. Im leaning towards Texas in my bracket because I think Fazekas can be neutralized by the likes of Klotz and Buckman can contain him. Nick isn't used to playing against the talent of teams in the Big 12. Youll hear Jay Bilas talk up Fazekas' hands all week, but I don't care about his hands, its all about matching his aggresiveness and playing him physically. I think the difference in this game will be my freshman of the year, Daniel Gibson. Slight lean on Texas at a PK. Miss State is one of my possible sleeper teams. I don't think they'll have much of a problem with Stanford especially since they will be Grunfeld-less. I think lawrence Roberts will have a monster game and they should be able to control the glass on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. They should get a lot of second chance points and a lot of points on turnovers. Stanford simply doesn't play as physical as they would need to in order to beat the Bulldogs. Without Grunfeld, they just do not have enough scoring options. Lean on Mississippi State -1.5. Pacific was a team I was looking to ride in the tourney, but they were placed in a tough spot. They are playing a Pitt team with tremendous potential. If I were to pick a 1 seed to go down in the second round, I think it would be Washington. Because if Pitt gets by Pacific (which will be no easy task), I think they play a style of ball that would give the Huskies fits. They slow the game down forcing a half court tempo and will also pound the ball into Taft and Troutman. These two big men will pose problems for the Huskies who lack any real interior size. Pacific really showed a lot of weaknesses against Utah State the other night. However, they had a terrific regular season and do possess some talent.I don't know if I can put my money on Pitt because this team is the definition of Jeckyl and Hyde (all you need to know is they beat BC by 20 on the road and lost at home to Bucknell). WIll probably stay away money wise, but will look in to Pitt on my bracket making a run at Washington to get to the sweet 16.
 

SuRgEoN

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Oct 20, 1999
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An interesting trend that I noticed that would favor the #1 seeded Huskies is the importance of the Maui invitational. As you saw last year, the Maui championship matched up G Tech and Uconn. What do you know, G Tech and Uconn played for the title. I just think that sets the stage for the whole season. It gives the team a certain confidence that they can hang with the nations best from nay different conferences. It also shows that you can win on a neutral court which is all important in the big . The Huskies were undefeated on neutral floors this year and beat the likes of Bama, Utah, and Oklahoma (3 tourney teams) in the pre-season tourney.

Another interesting note for the Huskies is that Gonzaga absolutley has their number. They beat them pretty easily earlier in the year, and have beat them 8 straight times over the last 5 years if you look at your bracket, if everyhting goes according to seeding (which I hihgly doubt), U Dub would meet the Zags in the Elite 8. Just something to keep in mind
 

TheBDB

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Jan 26, 2002
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I asked because I'm a Texas fan. I'm looking for an upset of #1 Illinois in the second round. :D It sure would have been nice to see how good they would be with Aldridge and Tucker playing. Tucker plays a lot taller than he is. They have some good shooters, and Buckman or Klotz can be great occasionally.
 

SuRgEoN

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Shockers since 1985 (13 seed or higher winning)

1985- #13 Navy beat #4 La Tech

1986- #14 Ark-LR bea #3 Notre Dame; #14 Cle St beat #3 Indiana

1987- #13 seed SWMS beat #4 CLemson; #13 Xavier beat #4 Mizzou; #14 Ap beat #3 Ill

1988-#14 Murray State beat #3 Nc State

1989-#13 MTSu beat #4 FSU; #14 Siena beat #3 Stanford

1990-#14 Nirthern Iowa beat #3 Mizzou

1991-#13 Penn State beat #4 UCLA; #14 Xavier beat #3 Nebraska

1992-#13 SW LOU beat #4 Okl; #14 ETSU beat #3 AZ

1993-#13 SOuthern beat #4 GT; #15 SC beat #2 AZ

1994-NO BIG UPSETS

1995-#14 Weber State beat #3 Mich State

1996-#13 Princeton beat #4 UCLA

1997-#14 UT-Chat beat #3 Georgia; #15 Coppin STate beat #2 SC

1998-#13 SWMS beat #4 Clemson; #13 Valpo beat #4 Miss; #14 Richmond beat #3 SC

1999-#13 Oklahoma beat #4 AZ; #14 Weber State beat #3 UNC

2000-NO MAJOR UPSETS

2001-#13 Kent State beat #4 Indiana; #15 Hampton beat #2 I. State

2002-#13 UNC-W beat #4 USC

2003-#13 Tulsa beat Dayton

AS you can see, over the past 19 years (since there was a 64 team bracket), the 13th seed has won 34 times (or almost twice a year on average). A 3 seed has only lost 13 times since 1985. A 2 seed has only lost 4 times. If you go by history, a 2 seed could be due for a loss (theyre losing about once every five years).
 

Nimloth

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Mar 5, 2001
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I thought you knew what you were talking about when you said Alabama couldn't lose..
Also I went with you on the Niagara pick... Looks like I'm gonna lose the $5 I put into the office pool :(
 

conjur

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Jun 7, 2001
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Originally posted by: SuRgEoN
Just a few observations and research will build upon this

#1 seeds--All have to be locks. This is as close as you come to a Lo_ _
Agreed

#2 seeds--Very strong this year. Kentucky, Uconn, Okie State, and Wake all have a shot at making a run to the final four. Probably the strongest 2's Ive seen in the last 6-7 years.
Hunh? UConn is 22-7? UK dropped two in the last week. Strongest #2s? Not by a long shot.