I voted TIE.
Bush got better the last time. Kerry was about the same or marginally worse than the first debate. This time Bush will probably fire on all cylinders and get up to B grade territory. Also, some of the debate topics that are likely to come up are real land mines for Kerry. All Bush needs to do is stay focused, not jump down the moderator's throat and say "liberal", "taxes", "baby killer", and "flip-flopper" and he's home free. The down side for Bush is if he loses it again, and also engages in some of his "Yogi Talk" he will again come across as the buffoon as he did in the first debate.
-Robert