Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,334
3,412
136
I agree. I think this will be a good year for stocks generally. Most of the market has been left in the dust by a handful of big names. Commentators, always searching hard for bad dad joke say the market has bad breadth. Yuk, yuk. I think that changes this year.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,594
2,585
126
Indus said:
I wouldn't mind a 20-25% correction at all so I don't buy at ATH's.
Click to expand...

You and everyone else. ;)

Of course, some people might not enjoy that kind of pullback and they dont happen very often as the Fed usually jumps in with all sorts of shenanigans.

I would say the worst of them is bond price suppression through large Fed purchases of treasuries, thus preventing market discovery of true interest rates. I dont trade bonds so this is an area I am not very familiar with. But if you have the Fed putting a floor in on prices then that I would think that helps if you have a leveraged bond bet.
 
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Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,334
3,412
136
I think a "standard" correction is something in or about the 10% range. 20%+ is feeling more like a mini crash.
 
D

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,591
517
126
I certainly wish everyone well I 2025.

At this time I really only have two things to watch. My NVDA puts that expire in April of course.

But also NET. I'm up a ton on that stock. They report on Feb 5. Do I sell and take the profit before then? If they have another great EC it might be a mistake. Do institutional investors think it's maxed out? Hopefully it'll rise until the EC date.

I'm also looking for good solid stocks in the $20-$50 range to sell puts on. If anyone has ideas let me know. A little higher or lower is fine.

NO PHARMACEUTICALS lol
 
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Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,700
10,272
136
So I was curious about something.. a lot of people said just buy index funds and relax.. and maybe that's what I'll do but I have been researching what the index funds are made up of..

I came across this:

1735532422908.png

I hate Elonia and giving him money would really piss me off even if it goes sky high..

So are there any non Tesla index funds that track the market or am I better off buying individual stocks of everything else in the same ratio (more or less)

I get it.. I'm overcomplicating stuff.. but I cannot let my grudge against Elonia slide.
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,334
3,412
136
@Indus - first, all MFs and ETFs will have their own rules about what they can buy, the max percentage a single holding can have in the fund and hosts of others. Even with index funds, do you want equal weight between all of the holdings or should new cash inflows be allocated in some other way. There might also be internal rules for an indefinite number of other things. For example, there might be restrictions on "churning" - excessive buying and selling - since those costs tend to find their way directly into the fees they charge you.

I know that some of my previous comments would seem to imply that you should never buy individual shares. I just think that for a beginner, funds are fairly straight forward and automatically keeps you somewhat diversified, although often that will be within a specific market segment (since that's how most MFs and ETFs are constructed)

But things like DRIPs are definitely another useful approach - direct re-investment plans/programs. I've always used computershare. It's been a long time, but I'm pretty sure you can call the DRIP and give them a list of what you want them to buy for you. After that, dividends are reinvested.

However, by focusing on specific companies, you lose the built-in diversification of funds - and healthy diversification is one of the cornerstones of investing.
 
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J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,160
6,612
136
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Looks like the solution for ending WFH is here.

Indus said:
I hate Elonia and giving him money would really piss me off even if it goes sky high..

So are there any non Tesla index funds that track the market or am I better off buying individual stocks of everything else in the same ratio (more or less)

I get it.. I'm overcomplicating stuff.. but I cannot let my grudge against Elonia slide.
Click to expand...

I brought this up when Tesla was added to the S&P. Unfortunately there's no ETF that's "All Stocks minus Tech/Meme ones" but the best you could do is buy Value or Dividend ones.
 
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dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,765
4,293
126
Indus said:
So I was curious about something.. a lot of people said just buy index funds and relax.. and maybe that's what I'll do but I have been researching what the index funds are made up of..

I came across this:...
Click to expand...
That looks like a list from a S&P500 fund. If you buy a fund that tracks the value of the 500 biggest American companies, guess what? That fund is made up of the 500 biggest American companies such as Apple, NVidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, etc.

The point of an index fund is that the vast majority of people do a very bad job picking the right stocks, or if they do happen to pick the right stocks they generally have a bad timing for buying / selling them. People far too often go with emotional reactions to politics, personal beliefs, news cycles, trends such as meme stocks (see the famous tulip mania bubble: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania), overrating losses while underweighting gains, too much hope for a stock that will get them rich quickly, too many eggs in one basket, etc. With an index fund all that is gone. No need to pick stocks or to time them. If NVidia goes to the moon, guess what, you own it. If Walgreens tanks 65% in a year like it just did, guess what, while you owned it the amount you own is so small that you won't notice. It lets you get around the worst parts of most investor's tendencies.

Also there are plenty of other index funds. Vanguard itself has 354 different funds, although if you filter out similar ones the actual amount is ~80. The S&P500 tracking fund is an important fund, but it is only one of those ~80 funds.

Just like people have a hard time picking one correct stock, they also have a hard time picking just one index fund. You shouldn't put all your money into just one index fund. You should purchase a few of them. There is no "Best" way to do this, but buy a mixture of different types of funds to meet your investment goals for your personal situation. Yes, one fund you purchase should be the S&P500 tracking fund since that is just so important to the world's economy. But, you should also own small companies, value companies, foreign companies, etc. I would start here for examples: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios

I personally follow something quite similar to William Bernstein's high risk portfolio: https://www.portfolioeinstein.com/w...et-allocation-of-william-bernstein-portfolios
 
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biostud

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
19,492
6,556
136
If you want want to add something foreign to mix with SP500, you can add a ETF which tracks STAXX 600 EUR which are the 600 largest companies in Europe.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,594
2,585
126
biostud said:
I'm USING Amundi Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF Acc

www.justetf.com

Amundi Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF Acc | LYX0Q0 | LU0908500753

Key facts and comparisons for Amundi Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF Acc (LYP6 | LU0908500753) ➤ justETF – The ETF Screener
www.justetf.com www.justetf.com
Click to expand...

I wonder how that will do in 2025?

Here is how $10,000 invested did in other various investments for 2024:



The best single "investment" for 2024 was Dodgecoin: (who the hell buys that?!) ;)

1735748991524.png

Second best was mega-cap tech, Nvidia in particular:

1735749242706.png
 
Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,700
10,272
136
Felix since you said you're a day trader.. does shit like this happen to you??


Or you always go long for a couple of weeks/ months with some of your picks??
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,594
2,585
126
^ A wild video. Its likely they went all in on one trade. I try to avoid that.

I don't necessarily buy and sell the same day. But I do usually clear the tables the next day, winners and losers, and start with a clean slate hoping my net outcome puts me ahead. Some things I regret selling too early others I am happy to be rid of.
 
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IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,038
32,287
136
I'm scratching my head over Quicken's handling of yield calculations. It appears to apply dividends and realized capital gains to the cost basis and then calculate the yield so dividends and realized capital gains are included in the denominator instead of the numerator and the calculated yields look awful.
 
JTsyo

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,976
1,099
126
I have some house renovations coming up later this year so I pull some money out of the markets. Luckily I didn't have much losses that I could balance out the taxes with.
 
dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,765
4,293
126
IronWing said:
I'm scratching my head over Quicken's handling of yield calculations. It appears to apply dividends and realized capital gains to the cost basis and then calculate the yield so dividends and realized capital gains are included in the denominator instead of the numerator and the calculated yields look awful.
Click to expand...
Are you having your account automatically reinvest dividends and capital gains? If so, then it does belong in the cost basis as you are buying more shares each time you get a dividend or realize a capital gain.

I personally have automatic reinvestments turned on for tax-deferred accounts, since typically buying earlier is the best. But for taxable accounts, automatic reinvestments can make for a paperwork nightmare. When you sell, which shares did you sell and thus what amount of tax do you pay? Even worse, for donated shares, you always want to donate the shares that had the most gains, but now that might be a smattering of different groups of shares all bought on different days. Too much headache for me. I turn off automatic reinvestments on the taxable accounts and just buy in batches.
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,038
32,287
136
dullard said:
Are you having your account automatically reinvest dividends and capital gains? If so, then it does belong in the cost basis as you are buying more shares each time you get a dividend or realize a capital gain.

I personally have automatic reinvestments turned on for tax-deferred accounts, since typically buying earlier is the best. But for taxable accounts, automatic reinvestments can make for a paperwork nightmare. When you sell, which shares did you sell and thus what amount of tax do you pay? Even worse, for donated shares, you always want to donate the shares that had the most gains, but now that might be a smattering of different groups of shares all bought on different days. Too much headache for me. I turn off automatic reinvestments on the taxable accounts and just buy in batches.
Click to expand...
I understand the reason for applying the reinvestments to the cost basis. I don't understand why Quicken calculates the performance metrics the way it does.
 
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