Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[jpiniero]

A November hike is almost 50-50 now.

 

[Brainonska511]

Cramer once said the opposite.. a company should go into debt to buy back it's shares!

Considering Cramer's track record, you're probably better off doing the opposite of what he suggests.

 

[PlanetJosh]

​

AMD CEO Lisa Su and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang are related in a cousin/niece/uncle combination. He's a $40 billion multibillionaire and she has around $30 million. Not to sidetrack the thread but many of you know AMD competes with Nvidia in chips and supporting software. So it's point of interest that you may wonder if AMD will skyrocket too in ai and big tech considering they are already in the action from a technical standpoint.

Edit: Adding the source for the relations and financials

Are AMD CEO Lisa Su and Nvidia's Jensen Huang related? - Business News

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and AMD CEO Lisa Su. Getty Images

biz.crast.net

 

[FelixDeCat]

A November hike is almost 50-50 now.

The market is falling out of bed today and Powell hasn't said a word.

 

[AdamK47]

Tomorrow looks to be a more important day than I thought. Not sure what Powell will say that we haven't heard before.

 

[Train]

Oof Disney,

You were the chosen one!

 

[AdamK47]

Oof Disney,

You were the chosen one!

Deserves to go lower.

 

[jpiniero]

Oof Disney,

You were the chosen one!

Disney+ is looking like a bust... they are never going to turn a profit on it. ESPN is doomed. Linear TV in general is probably doomed. The strikes will kill it.

 

[jpiniero]

Tomorrow looks to be a more important day than I thought. Not sure what Powell will say that we haven't heard before.

Probally just going to imply that the pivot isn't happening anytime soon. Maybe even that there will indeed be more hikes coming.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought Afirm @ 17.50. I think it might go over $20.

Edit: sold deep calls just in case the market keeps falling

 

[AdamK47]

Market down today after Powell spoke in Jackson's Hole. I suppose the main takeaway is that an easing is further away than many thought.

 

[FelixDeCat]

NVidia was $500 at earnings, has pulled back since to $450 in two days ... despite good earnings. I don't think anyone expected that.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Not down any more.


I'll take higher interest on my savings. i don't borrow, so loan rates don't affect me.

 

[dullard]

I'll take higher interest on my savings. i don't borrow, so loan rates don't affect me.

Companies that you buy from do borrow. Most of them*. So their costs go up. So they may pass some costs on to you (via less supply resulting in higher prices in the supply-demand curve). So these higher rates may affect you.


* Heck even Apple, one of the most valuable companies in the world, with $50 billion cash on hand still has debt.

 

[dullard]

Well today was the day that many of the meme stock owners who were so, so willing to lose money, did lose money. The year long APE fiasco is over. Opened at $6.95/APE share, shot up to $9.35/APE share shortly later. Anyone who bought them and held on to them, were just forced out at $1.42/APE share. A nice 79.6% loss from the opening price.

AMC itself is down 64% for the week and down 85% during that APE experiment.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well today was the day that many of the meme stock owners who were so, so willing to lose money, did lose money. The year long APE fiasco is over. Opened at $6.95/APE share, shot up to $9.35/APE share shortly later. Anyone who bought them and held on to them, were just forced out at $1.42/APE share. A nice 79.6% loss from the opening price.

AMC itself is down 64% for the week and down 85% during that APE experiment.

I predict bankruptcy in 18 months or less for AMC.

 

[dullard]

I predict bankruptcy in 18 months or less for AMC.

Cash of $435M, Liquidity availability of $643M, and losing roughly $1000M per year. They need a miracle, more than just Barbenheimer to make it those 18 months.

 

[KB]

Well today was the day that many of the meme stock owners who were so, so willing to lose money, did lose money. The year long APE fiasco is over. Opened at $6.95/APE share, shot up to $9.35/APE share shortly later. Anyone who bought them and held on to them, were just forced out at $1.42/APE share. A nice 79.6% loss from the opening price.

AMC itself is down 64% for the week and down 85% during that APE experiment.

We all knew this was inevitable, but you have to admit, the experiment worked for the company. They stayed alive longer than they should, and executives got their bonuses. Only the tax-payer got screwed as most of the money that went into AMC was probably pandemic emergency funds.

 

[dullard]

We all knew this was inevitable, but you have to admit, the experiment worked for the company. They stayed alive longer than they should, and executives got their bonuses. Only the tax-payer got screwed as most of the money that went into AMC was probably pandemic emergency funds.

As far as I could find, AMC did not get pandemic emergency funds. The only money given to theaters was small independent theaters. https://screenrant.com/amc-theaters-covid-19-relief-bill-no-funding/ But, I didn't search very hard, so maybe they got some pandemic money a different way.

Speaking of AMC, they are down another 8% 9% 10% 11% today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

As far as I could find, AMC did not get pandemic emergency funds. The only money given to theaters was small independent theaters. https://screenrant.com/amc-theaters-covid-19-relief-bill-no-funding/ But, I didn't search very hard, so maybe they got some pandemic money a different way.

Speaking of AMC, they are down another 8% today.

It (indirectly) got pandemic money when the meme traders used stimulus money (given out when people were forced to stay home and later to stimulate the economy) to inflate AMC stock price up to $75 at one pont.

 

[KB]

Threw some money into HE (Hawaiian Electric). The company states and has proof the power lines were off for 6 hours before the second fire started. If true and they get off the hook, they could return from 14, back to 39 over the next few months - year. Worse cause scenario is bankruptcy, which I put odds at 15% with this news. Best case scenerario is +150% gain which I put at 30%. Odds of flat to 100% gain I put at 65%. Thats a trade I am willing to make.

Hawaiian Electric says power lines were out for hours before deadly Maui fire (NYSE:HE)

Hawaiian Electric (HE) surges in early trading Monday after saying its power lines had been "de-energized for more than six hours" before the wildfire that killed at least 115 people in Maui

seekingalpha.com

 

[AdamK47]

September is typically a down month.

How far down do some of you think it'll go with jobs, CPI, and a fed meeting in play?

 

[AdamK47]

Threw some money into HE (Hawaiian Electric). The company states and has proof the power lines were off for 6 hours before the second fire started. If true and they get off the hook, they could return from 14, back to 39 over the next few months - year. Worse cause scenario is bankruptcy, which I put odds at 15% with this news. Best case scenerario is +150% gain which I put at 30%. Odds of flat to 100% gain I put at 65%. Thats a trade I am willing to make.

Hawaiian Electric says power lines were out for hours before deadly Maui fire (NYSE:HE)

Hawaiian Electric (HE) surges in early trading Monday after saying its power lines had been "de-energized for more than six hours" before the wildfire that killed at least 115 people in Maui

seekingalpha.com

That contradicts their own recent admission.

Hawaiian Electric takes responsibility for 1st fire, but faults county firefighters

Hawaii’s electric utility acknowledged Sunday night its power lines started a wildfire on Maui but faulted county firefighters for declaring the blaze contained and leaving the scene, only to have a second wildfire break out nearby and become the deadl...

abcnews.go.com

Edit: I suppose they admit to causing the first fire and not the second. Where did the second fire come from then. From the first fire? Maybe it was just all one fire.

 

[KB]

That contradicts their own recent admission.

Hawaiian Electric takes responsibility for 1st fire, but faults county firefighters

Hawaii’s electric utility acknowledged Sunday night its power lines started a wildfire on Maui but faulted county firefighters for declaring the blaze contained and leaving the scene, only to have a second wildfire break out nearby and become the deadl...

abcnews.go.com

Edit: I suppose they admit to causing the first fire and not the second. Where did the second fire come from then. From the first fire? Maybe it was just all one fire.

The abc news article is a little more damning than the seeking-alpha one.

"By taking responsibility for causing the first fire, then pointing the finger on a fire that started 75 yards away and saying, 'That's not our fault, we started it but they should've put it out,' I'm not sure how that will hold up,” Morgan, who manages complex litigation, said Monday. “It's also so premature because there are ongoing investigations.”"

"Residents said the embers from the morning fire had reignited and the fire raced toward downtown Lahaina. Treu’s neighbor Robert Arconado recorded video of it spreading at 3:06 p.m., as large plumes of smoke rise near Lahainaluna Road and are carried downtown by the wind."

If the two fires are the same fire then HE could have more responsibility than they believe they do. We all know when the police or firefighters screw up they rarely get blamed or are held to account, so its possible the firefighters failed to put out the fire and HE could still be blamed.

This would move my bankruptcy risk to 35%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Threw some money into HE (Hawaiian Electric). The company states and has proof the power lines were off for 6 hours before the second fire started. If true and they get off the hook, they could return from 14, back to 39 over the next few months - year. Worse cause scenario is bankruptcy, which I put odds at 15% with this news. Best case scenerario is +150% gain which I put at 30%. Odds of flat to 100% gain I put at 65%. Thats a trade I am willing to make.

Hawaiian Electric says power lines were out for hours before deadly Maui fire (NYSE:HE)

Hawaiian Electric (HE) surges in early trading Monday after saying its power lines had been "de-energized for more than six hours" before the wildfire that killed at least 115 people in Maui

seekingalpha.com

Bought some at $14 for a trade.