Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ $350 ahead? Currently $362.5

 

[JTsyo]

What's up with CVS? Over the last 10 years thier value has been all over the place.

 

[dullard]

What's up with CVS? Over the last 10 years thier value has been all over the place.

Volatility caused by:
1) Competition from Amazon. Both the front of the store stuff but now also common prescription drugs.
2) Blue Cross of California dropped them due to item #1.
3) Merger with Aetna completed so now they are entering layoffs.
4) Pharmacy Benefit Manager proposed changes in federal government. There are I think 9 bills under consideration.
5) Generic drugs and competitor biosimilar drugs (especially Humira) might make Pharmacy Benefit Managers far, far less profitable.

 

[AdamK47]

QQQ $350 ahead? Currently $362.5

Nearly there.

Have you considered VGT?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nearly there.

Have you considered VGT?

Nope. Have you?

 

[AdamK47]

Nope. Have you?

Have and bought.

 

[jpiniero]

What's up with CVS? Over the last 10 years thier value has been all over the place.

Clearly what CVS needs to do to juice the stock is to announce they are buying a bunch of nVidia GPUs and make vague statements about using them for AI.

 

[AdamK47]

Futures look terrible. I suspect the market will open low and recover a bit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought some X, sold calls against it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Guess I shouldn't have sold those X calls.


Anyway, you know Musk is rooting for a buyout so he can list X with the symbol X.

 

[FelixDeCat]

apls

Sold this one too soon.

 

[AdamK47]

A little chip company called Nvidia reports earnings today.

I hope the results are terrible. Completely terrible.

It won't be of course, but I can still hope.

 

[PlanetJosh]

A little chip company called Nvidia reports earnings today.

I hope the results are terrible. Completely terrible.

It won't be of course, but I can still hope.

It is nuts that if you bought it where it is now at around $460 you could still make money assuming it rises a little above $500 tomorrow. Not sure yet if I'll try that method. But you saying the results won't be terrible has got me thinking about it. Sorry for the sarcasm but it could still actually happen that way if I go for it.

 

[dullard]

After plunging from $0.90 to $0.66 after that post, APEs are up 80% today. Now $1.23. Any ideas why?

Edit: I see now that AMC is requesting a shareholder meeting to convert APE shares back into AMC shares. This would make the APE shares the same price as AMC shares. So, APE has to rise, AMC has to fall, or both (if that goes through).

Well took a lot longer than I thought, but with a Friday deadline, looks like the inevitable is happening for AMC shares. Down just over 50% since Monday morning. Still has $0.20 or so to fall to match APE pricing (another 10%). Probably though there will be some premium as people cling to hope that the APE shares aren't converted back.

 

[jpiniero]

A little chip company called Nvidia reports earnings today.

I hope the results are terrible. Completely terrible.

It won't be of course, but I can still hope.

About that...

Guidance is good too - guess China hasn't been cut off just yet.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It is nuts that if you bought it where it is now at around $460 you could still make money assuming it rises a little above $500 tomorrow. Not sure yet if I'll try that method. But you saying the results won't be terrible has got me thinking about it. Sorry for the sarcasm but it could still actually happen that way if I go for it.

Remember when you were afraid to buy at $350? Lol 😆

 

[AdamK47]

It is nuts that if you bought it where it is now at around $460 you could still make money assuming it rises a little above $500 tomorrow. Not sure yet if I'll try that method. But you saying the results won't be terrible has got me thinking about it. Sorry for the sarcasm but it could still actually happen that way if I go for it.

Hope you got your buys in. Over $500 after hours.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Remember when you were afraid to buy at $350? Lol 😆

Still makes me feel sick. I thought how dare it go over $300. It can't do that to me. Like it would go back down to let me have a better deal.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Hope you got your buys in. Over $500 after hours.

I didn't and I've been doing that since last year when it was around $120. Always thinking I better let it go down some more.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Still makes me feel sick. I thought how dare it go over $300. It can't do that to me. Like it would go back down to let me have a better deal.

Well I did not buy either so that makes two of us.

The market cap of NVidia about $1.2T. Assuming the astounding numbers continue it might be interesting to buy pullbacks when people take profits (distribution). If Apple can surpass $3T then one day could NVidia also triple in 3 years or less?

Edit - China blockade may be a headwind to this ambitious market cap.

 

[AdamK47]

Nvidia will be propping up the majority of the Nasdaq today. More market concentration.

Without the top 7 gainers this year we would be up like what, 2% or 3%?

 

[dullard]

The market cap of NVidia about $1.2T. Assuming the astounding numbers continue it might be interesting to buy pullbacks when people take profits (distribution). If Apple can surpass $3T then one day could NVidia also triple in 3 years or less?

While I think NVidia is a good company, they have just committed a major self-inflicted wound. This AI boom will have a bust at some point. Once companies have enough AI chips, they won't keep buying NVidia chips in the numbers that they have been buying. Suppose NVidia's stock returns to $200/share after that point. If that happens, then that means that 60% of the $25 billion stock buyback will disappear. NVidia is taking this boom and probably throwing $15 billion away instead of doing anything productive with it. Not investing in better chips or better production or new technologies. Just putting a match to $15 billion and watching it burn.

I'm never a fan of stock buybacks. Either invest in the company or give it as dividends. Buybacks almost always turn out to be a financial disaster in the long run (especially in boom times for a company since that guarantees they are doing buybacks at stock price peaks). Sure it props up the stock short-term. But short-term stock prices that isn't what companies should focus on. Buy high, sell low is just too ingrained in CEO minds.

How is Bed Bath and Beyond doing with all those shares ($11.8 billion) it bought back?

 

[AdamK47]

Powell will be speaking from Jackson's Hole tomorrow. I'm thinking whatever overall market gains we see today will be reversed by the end of the day tomorrow.

 

[FelixDeCat]

While I think NVidia is a good company, they have just committed a major self-inflicted wound. This AI boom will have a bust at some point. Once companies have enough AI chips, they won't keep buying NVidia chips in the numbers that they have been buying. Suppose NVidia's stock returns to $200/share after that point. If that happens, then that means that 60% of the $25 billion stock buyback will disappear. NVidia is taking this boom and probably throwing $15 billion away instead of doing anything productive with it. Not investing in better chips or better production or new technologies. Just putting a match to $15 billion and watching it burn.

I'm never a fan of stock buybacks. Either invest in the company or give it as dividends. Buybacks almost always turn out to be a financial disaster in the long run (especially in boom times for a company since that guarantees they are doing buybacks at stock price peaks). Sure it props up the stock short-term. But short-term stock prices that isn't what companies should focus on. Buy high, sell low is just too ingrained in CEO minds.

How is Bed Bath and Beyond doing with all those shares ($11.8 billion) it bought back?

Bed Bath bought back its way to BR. I think if a company has debt they should always pay that off first.

Cramer once said the opposite.. a company should go into debt to buy back it's shares!

Sometimes share buybacks are very advantageous. Look at the maximum chart on Autozone stock. Extreme example of reducing share count - to an extreme!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Powell will be speaking from Jackson's Hole tomorrow. I'm thinking whatever overall market gains we see today will be reversed by the end of the day tomorrow.

I bought market puts.