Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

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ultimatebob

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
zinfamous said:
uh, Netflix has nothing to do with BD vs HDDVD. That was a format war between two media standards. It happened and ended several years before Netflix streaming was even a thing. lol, how are you even dragging that nonsense into the conversation?

Netflix streaming vs physical media is something else entirely. The only thing Netflix was involved in in those days, was rental services. Own or not own. Blockbuster vs Netflix. That's it. Netflix was adding surcharges to their subscription if you wanted access to BD or HDDVD in those days.

BD is still around. Netflix didn't "win" any of that.

and to your later point...lol, the value of Netflix shares then vs now. The shareholders of that time "won." Netflix didn't win vs their competition. They beat blockbuster...then, but that didn't really do anything for their value. Again, that was defeating a non streaming service in a non streaming battle. Their licensing deals have been severed as streaming has become more and more fragmented. Yeah, they had to essentially create their own studio to stay alive, and they've been fairly good at it, so it's definitely working for them. But they are now in direct war with Disney. Good luck.

Why does all of your thinking have to be "money = win. Money = right. I get the money = therefore I smart." That's so fucking pedestrian and trite. It's not even any kind of metric of being correct or smart about any of this stuff. Everything is in hindsight. You don't know dick about what is happening tomorrow with any of these companies, and no one else does. Stop pretending that you do because "money."
Click to expand...

This is true... Netflix didn't really get serious about streaming until they started producing their own content around 2013. The BluRay vs HD DVD wars were long over by that point.

Also, I'd bet that AOL's stock chart looked awesome around 1999. I'd imagine that there were many tech investors back then who thought that they were freaking geniuses for owning the stock... and then they merged with Time Warner and it all went to hell.

It's a good lesson to remember today when looking at stocks that have been on a tear as of late without the fundamentals to back them up.
 
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ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
zinfamous said:
uh, Netflix has nothing to do with BD vs HDDVD. That was a format war between two media standards. It happened and ended several years before Netflix streaming was even a thing. lol, how are you even dragging that nonsense into the conversation?

Netflix streaming vs physical media is something else entirely. The only thing Netflix was involved in in those days, was rental services. Own or not own. Blockbuster vs Netflix. That's it. Netflix was adding surcharges to their subscription if you wanted access to BD or HDDVD in those days.

BD is still around. Netflix didn't "win" any of that.

and to your later point...lol, the value of Netflix shares then vs now. The shareholders of that time "won." Netflix didn't win vs their competition. They beat blockbuster...then, but that didn't really do anything for their value. Again, that was defeating a non streaming service in a non streaming battle. Their licensing deals have been severed as streaming has become more and more fragmented. Yeah, they had to essentially create their own studio to stay alive, and they've been fairly good at it, so it's definitely working for them. But they are now in direct war with Disney. Good luck.

Why does all of your thinking have to be "money = win. Money = right. I get the money = therefore I smart." That's so fucking pedestrian and trite. It's not even any kind of metric of being correct or smart about any of this stuff. Everything is in hindsight. You don't know dick about what is happening tomorrow with any of these companies, and no one else does. Stop pretending that you do because "money."
Click to expand...
Streaming won. BD is still around but who buys standalone BD player to play movies? Playstation and Xbox are really the only thing that's keeping BD movies alive. Hardcore film and music people still buy BD and CD but they're the minority. I brought up Netflix because they masterfully transitioned their business model from mail-order physical discs to entirely streaming. I was Netflix disc subscriber and remember being super impressed with their beta streaming service back in 2007/2008. But I mistakenly thought increased content cost and competition would prevent Netflix from making much money. I was wrong so I missed out on a generational stock.

Everything is in hindsight. We make our best guess as to the future and place our bets. Money = win in the stock market game. You win if you make money. You lose if you lose money. I don't think I'm smart, but I think I'm pretty good at looking at the big picture.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
ultimatebob said:
This is true... Netflix didn't really get serious about streaming until they started producing their own content around 2013. The BluRay vs HD DVD wars were long over by that point.

Also, I'd bet that AOL's stock chart looked awesome around 1999. I'd imagine that there were many tech investors back then who thought that they were freaking geniuses for owning the stock... and then they merged with Time Warner and it all went to hell.

It's a good lesson to remember today when looking at stocks that have been on a tear as of late without the fundamentals to back them up.
Click to expand...
Netflix quickly went all in and fully embraced streaming way before they started producing their own content. Netflix started their streaming in 2007 and by 2009, streaming overtook dvd shipments at Netflix.

You like to bring up AOL stock in these discussions but AOL stock didn't fail because it was a bubble. AOL stock failed because their dialup service got disrupted by broadband and they failed to transition their business model from dialup to broadband. AOL introduced America to the internet and email with their easy to use dialup service. They were the disrupter. For that, they were massively rewarded and early AOL investors made a killing. But the writing was on the wall by early 2000 as it was clear broadband was the future. AOL dialup in turn got disrupted by broadband.

I dropped AOL in 1999 when I got my DSL service. I remember being amazed at the speed of the 1 Mbps DSL. It was incomparable experience going from 56k dialup modem and tying up my home phone line to 1 Mbps DSL and being able to use my home phone at the same time while surfing the internet. I dropped DSL and switched to faster cable internet after it was available in my area but broadband was complete and total game changer. That's why AOL failed. Steve Case thought Time Warner was the answer but that was doomed marriage from the start. I made lot of money trading AOL stock back in the day. I remember the AOL price peaked right at the release of the "You Got Mail" movie with Tom Hanks. I made stupid money trading AOL and Yahoo stocks and options back in the internet bubble days. But I had to go through personal hell and learned painful lesson when the Dotcom bubble popped. I paid my dues and learned lot of valuable lessons along the way which I try to incorporate to what I do today.
 
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FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,162
2,034
126
Roger Wilco said:
JPow is hanging around. All aboard the stonk train?
Click to expand...

Hmmm...lets ponder that...

Stocks are up a bazillion percent in the last 3 years, the Fed is taking the punch away slowly but surely, taxes are going up and the left wingers desperately want intrusive "big brother" government spying on our bank accounts without a warrant to pay for massive socialist spending.

We also passed yet another trillion dollar boondoggle pork barrel package, and will soon surpass $30T in unpaid debt.

So lets review -

Record debt
Higher rates
Government fishing in our checking accounts wanting to know why you have money

Did I mention there is a debt extension battle ahead? I didn't?

Can you say "government shutdown"?
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
8,910
2,416
136
There's no way the big GOP donors are going to permit anything more than allowing Moscow Mitch anything more than a little kabuki dance around raising the debt limit. They were already apoplectic when he originally threatened to do this. It would be stupidly destructive and I don't think our credit rating would ever recover from that sort of idiocy.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,568
29,182
146
FelixDeCat said:
Hmmm...lets ponder that...

Stocks are up a bazillion percent in the last 3 years, the Fed is taking the punch away slowly but surely, taxes are going up and the left wingers desperately want intrusive "big brother" government spying on our bank accounts without a warrant to pay for massive socialist spending.

We also passed yet another trillion dollar boondoggle pork barrel package, and will soon surpass $30T in unpaid debt.

So lets review -

Record debt
Higher rates
Government fishing in our checking accounts wanting to know why you have money

Did I mention there is a debt extension battle ahead? I didn't?

Can you say "government shutdown"?
Click to expand...

10 trillion you and Trump gave to 10 billionaires and you call infrastructure spending a boondoggle...and actual debt?

go fuck yourself
 
AdamK47

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,207
2,838
126
FelixDeCat said:
Hmmm...lets ponder that...

Stocks are up a bazillion percent in the last 3 years, the Fed is taking the punch away slowly but surely, taxes are going up and the left wingers desperately want intrusive "big brother" government spying on our bank accounts without a warrant to pay for massive socialist spending.

We also passed yet another trillion dollar boondoggle pork barrel package, and will soon surpass $30T in unpaid debt.

So lets review -

Record debt
Higher rates
Government fishing in our checking accounts wanting to know why you have money

Did I mention there is a debt extension battle ahead? I didn't?

Can you say "government shutdown"?
Click to expand...
Buy on the dips?
 
J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,585
5,209
136
zinfamous said:
10 trillion you and Trump gave to 10 billionaires
Click to expand...

If you are talking about the stock market pumping, there's more than just Musk and Bezos and whoever benefited from it. If you are in the Bay Area you've definitely benefited. For now... until the whole thing asplodes.
 
AdamK47

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,207
2,838
126
Two good things going for the market today. Record low jobless claims and a strengthening dollar.
 
PlanetJosh

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,815
143
106
Well Wednesday's bright spots seemed to be overshadowed by the huge sinking US market futures this morning, Friday, as of 5am EDT. I wonder if the new covid variant that just appeared in the news in the last day or two will lower stocks for several months.

Edit: Or maybe in the months ahead it will be just like it has for over 20 months: markets steaming on higher and higher blowing past one virus variant after another. And that's including the crash in Feb-Mar 2020.
 
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J

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,585
5,209
136
PlanetJosh said:
Well Wednesday's bright spots seemed to be overshadowed by the huge sinking US market futures this morning, Friday, as of 5am EDT. I wonder if the new covid variant that just appeared in the news in the last day or two will lower stocks for several months.

Edit: Or maybe in the months ahead it will be just like it has for over 20 months: markets steaming on higher and higher blowing past one virus variant after another. And that's including the crash in Feb-Mar 2020.
Click to expand...

Gotta be taper rumors.
 
Artorias

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,110
1,381
136
I sold half my portfolio earlier in the week to take profit then re-invested half of that into a couple of ETFS.

So now I'm sitting on cash.
 
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