Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Sold 10 Dec 17, 2021, $45 puts on LMND.

 

[ponyo]

Anybody got any thoughts on how to get direct exposure to China, either via sing stock ownership or mutual funds?

My exposure to China is through Xpeng and Tesla stock. China will be the world's biggest EV market in the world. Xpeng is my local pick for this market and Tesla is my US pick with heavy exposure to China. I think Xpeng will 10x in the next 10 years.

 

[woodman1999]

My exposure to China is through Xpeng and Tesla stock. China will be the world's biggest EV market in the world. Xpeng is my local pick for this market and Tesla is my US pick with heavy exposure to China. I think Xpeng will 10x in the next 10 years.

I actually have both of those already held for the long run. Just looking at some other ideas.

Dullard, thanks for that suggestion. I will take a deeper look.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Is the stock market finally accepting that new stimulus isn't coming any time soon?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Is the stock market finally accepting that new stimulus isn't coming any time soon?

Probably not until inaguration unless millions start dropping dead, which is unlikely since we have a better understanding of how to stop the spread and have precautions in place.

In the meantime the market will throw a hissyfit, the media will put pressure on government to do something by focusing on negative sob stories of people collecting unemployment while sitting on ass, etc. It wont matter though until Nancy drops her unreasonable demands to bail out local gov.

 

[ponyo]

Is the stock market finally accepting that new stimulus isn't coming any time soon?

No, I think the market realizes even bigger stimulus will come next year if Biden is elected president. I think people are nervous Trump will try to burn and destroy the economy and the stock market if he loses before he's officially kicked out in late January. That's my worry so I have some cash sitting and waiting to deploy if the market drops.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Probably not until inaguration unless millions start dropping dead, which is unlikely since we have a better understanding of how to stop the spread and have precautions in place.

In the meantime the market will throw a hissyfit, the media will put pressure on government to do something by focusing on negative sob stories of people collecting unemployment while sitting on ass, etc. It wont matter though until Nancy drops her unreasonable demands to bail out local gov.

We may have a better understanding of how to stop the spread, but it doesn't look like we are doing any of those things effectively. The US is setting record numbers for new cases, and it's not because of increased testing. It's because positivity rates are skyrocketing. Increased death counts will soon follow, but I agree that it won't be millions. However, there will be millions of people who continue to experience deleterious post-covid diseases, some of them permanent.

No, I think the market realizes even bigger stimulus will come next year if Biden is elected president. I think people are nervous Trump will try to burn and destroy the economy and the stock market if he loses before he's officially kicked out in late January. That's my worry so I have some cash sitting and waiting to deploy if the market drops.

The bigger stimulus next year makes sense to me. Especially if the Dems take control of both chambers of Congress.

 

[KB]

Dang, I had planned a big short of the market just before the election, thinking the market won't like if Biden wins or will get scared when the results are contested, but it looks like the market beat me to it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

In the end stimulus is not the answer. We have already had several rounds of stimulus and over 3 trillion dollars in bailouts so far with no mention of how any of this gets repaid.

The answer is how the economy continues to adapt to a post pandemic world. It has long been noted by many that adaption is the only way to survive economically. Those that cannot adapt, no longer exist in this economy. Look at the 20 year transition from brick and mortor to online retailing. Do you think anyone morned the loss of Sears or JCPenny besides the thousands who had to find another way to make a living? And thats just one example.

The next example is restaurants. I went out to eat the other day at a sit down restaurant for the first time since this thing started and all the booths and tables split by plastic dividers or every other table is empty. The menu items were also limited.

Like I said, adaptation. Its the only way to survive. Just like when all the horse and buggy manufacturers went out of business because of Ford or all the textile makers went bankrupt because of cheap overseas labor. Adaption, not trillions more of debt.

Spending cuts are also necessary in state and local government until tax revenues improve. You cant have it both ways, you cant have your cake and eat it too. Sorry.

Finally, new car sales and housing are continuing to boom. There is money and its going somewhere, in the meantime we adapt not bankrupt the nation.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dang, I had planned a big short of the market just before the election, thinking the market won't like if Biden wins or will get scared when the results are contested, but it looks like the market beat me to it.

Be careful shorting right now. Apple and Amazon report this week.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

In the end stimulus is not the answer. We have already had several rounds of stimulus and over 3 trillion dollars in bailouts so far with no mention of how any of this gets repaid.

The answer is how the economy continues to adapt to a post pandemic world. It has long been noted by many that adaption is the only way to survive economically. Those that cannot adapt, no longer exist in this economy. Look at the 20 year transition from brick and mortor to online retailing. Do you think anyone morned the loss of Sears or JCPenny besides the thousands who had to find another way to make a living? And thats just one example.

The next example is restaurants. I went out to eat the other day at a sit down restaurant for the first time since this thing started and all the booths and tables split by plastic dividers or every other table is empty. The menu items were also limited.

Like I said, adaptation. Its the only way to survive. Just like when all the horse and buggy manufacturers went out of business because of Ford or all the textile makers went bankrupt because of cheap overseas labor. Adaption, not trillions more of debt.

Spending cuts are also necessary in state and local government until tax revenues improve. You cant have it both ways, you cant have your cake and eat it too. Sorry.

Finally, new car sales and housing are continuing to boom. There is money and its going somewhere, in the meantime we adapt not bankrupt the nation.

Yeap, pretty true.

Pubs I used to frequent are adapting with delivery of meals - pick-ups of beers, etc...


The sad reality is that majority of businesses don't try to adapt. This is no different than at any other point in history when a major player made a major move and a large chunk of the competition didn't adapt.

Examples:
Amazon -> Retailers that didn't adjust
Netflix -> Media companies that didn't adjust
Uber -> Taxis that didn't adjust.

etc.. etc... They get complacent and think the market owes them or is secure or something...

 

[ponyo]

You guys are finally starting to get it. Invest in great disruption companies that are growing exponentially. Don't be a Boomer and buy value stock for the dividend and thinking you're getting a good deal. Those value traps will bury you.

Find incredible disruption companies that's going to change our lives. But these generational companies are few and rarely come along. So if you find one, go all in. Resist the temptation to diversify as that will lower your return. Invest in those companies for the longterm. Profit.

Avoid the pitfalls of investing in Boomer value trap companies. That's dead end investing.

 

[Artorias]

I was going to post yesterday that I felt we were in for a pullback Monday. However, I think this week will have more wild swings to come.

 

[dasherHampton]

lol I'm glad I didn't actually do that BA thing.

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol I'm glad I didn't actually do that BA thing.

Some options pay well for a reason. I thought selling puts on WFC would be easy money but that thing has done nothing (lately) but go down. Buying puts turned out to be a better bet.

Im long QQQ for a trade. MSFT reports tonight. Lately big cap techs stocks have been falling after reporting like NFLX and TSLA. Have to decide between buying a put or selling a call for insurance ..... or letting it ride tonight and see what happens.

I think worst case we go back to 275 and best case 289 this week. I own at 282.

Edit: Sold the weekly 280 call for $5

Edit #2: Bought back the call for a small profit and sold the shares. Wrote a credit spread long QQQ 291, short QQQ 288, 30 contracts.

 

[dasherHampton]

The account I would have used could have absorbed the shares without going into margin but what the hell do I need to spend $15000 on Boeing shares right now that might very well end up being dead money for years.

The alternative? Spending a ton of money buying back the put (if BA drops badly this month). Also not too appetizing.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Wonder where stocks will be going over the next week leading up to the election.

It's looking like talks of releasing a stimulus before the election is fading. I kinda expect a shitty week based on that.

Then the question is after the election will there be any significant change or a passage of stimulus before new candidates take office in 2021?

 

[TXHokie]

My exposure to China is through Xpeng and Tesla stock. China will be the world's biggest EV market in the world. Xpeng is my local pick for this market and Tesla is my US pick with heavy exposure to China. I think Xpeng will 10x in the next 10 years.

Just curious why XPEV and not NIO for China EV?

 

[dasherHampton]

Wonder where stocks will be going over the next week leading up to the election.

It's looking like talks of releasing a stimulus before the election is fading. I kinda expect a shitty week based on that.

Then the question is after the election will there be any significant change or a passage of stimulus before new candidates take office in 2021?

There are a lot of questions to be answered but imo only one really matters: How progressive will Biden be?

Nobody knows. I'm guessing the markets will rise short term on the expectations of huge stimulus after he assumes power.

I'm not making ANY bets past Dec 18.

 

[ponyo]

Just curious why XPEV and not NIO for China EV?

I just think XPEV has closer DNA to Tesla than NIO. But I'm no expert on China, XPEV, or NIO. XPEV are engineers and programmers like Tesla. Xpeng plans to have level 5 FSD by 2025. XPEV current autopilot tech is already impressive. Xpeng stole Tesla Autopilot source code.

NIO is better known to US investors but I don't like their business plan as much. NIO focuses more on premium and luxury. And NIO does things like battery swapping which I think is waste of time, resources, and dead end solution. Meanwhile, Xpeng is copying everything Tesla is doing. And Xpeng doesn't try to hide it. Xpeng wants to be Tesla. And I think they have the engineering and software talent to pull it off.

NIO has bigger market cap. And because NIO shares are so diluted, you're only getting like 70% of NIO if you buy NIO shares. 30% is owned by China which you will never get. NIO made that deal to avoid bankruptcy. So I think Xpeng has bigger upside. Xpeng own their factory and is producing cars. NIO meanwhile relies on outside contract manufacturing company.

Xpeng cars are cheaper than NIO. Xpeng cars have better software and tech than NIO. So while rising tides can lift all boats and both can win, I think Xpeng will ultimately win vs NIO.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I was going to buy 2,000 shares of PLTR this morning at $10.16 for a daytrade.

I am kicking myself right now for not pulling the trigger.

What attracted me was the price the stock likes to be at - $10. What scared me away was skittishness about the market itself.

 

[ponyo]

I was going to buy 2,000 shares of PLTR this morning at $10.16 for a daytrade.

I am kicking myself right now for not pulling the trigger.

What attracted me was the price the stock likes to be at - $10. What scared me away was skittishness about the market itself.

Hindsight is 20/20. You could've easily lost money too. Daytrading is crapshoot and really for suckers. I don't pretend I'm good at day trading. I know I suck at it and would go broke sooner than later if I tried. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while so if opportunity presents itself and falls into my lap, I will day trade for profit. But most of the time I don't even bother. I know my strengths and weakness and day trading is not one of my strengths.

 

[IEC]

Futures down...

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures down...

Hard to say what happens as I've seen everything happen. Being that I think the QQQs see 242 or 330 sometime this year or early next I was looking at buying puts a few months out. They are extremely expensive right now, so if Im wrong the price was going to be steep. I passed for now.

Long term QQQ 242 or 330, short term I think anything can happen we might even be flat so nothing is guaranteed. Puts or calls are too expensive to buy right now for anytime out past the election. I held a short call spread overnight.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Selloff mostly due to panic and riots over new lockdowns in Europe. We might recover some after they close at 10:30AM CST.