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***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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Last week or so there was big blowup in the natural gas commodity market and everyone was wondering which commodity hedge fund blew up. It was this guy, James Cordier of OptionSellers.com. It's my belief that everyone blows up at least once during their trading career. And that experience will really humble you. If you haven't blown up at least once in your career, you haven't been trading long enough.

 
FelixDeCat said:
Until we get clarification on tariffs iand from the Fed, down is the most likely direction.
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Will say that the odds of hikes beyond the December one have dropped considerably. If the Fed comes out and says they are done hiking that would improve the odds of no crash considerably.
 
ponyo said:
Last week or so there was big blowup in the natural gas commodity market and everyone was wondering which commodity hedge fund blew up. It was this guy, James Cordier of OptionSellers.com. It's my belief that everyone blows up at least once during their trading career. And that experience will really humble you. If you haven't blown up at least once in your career, you haven't been trading long enough.

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I had no idea that happened. Thanks for posting. It sort of reminds of the 1998 implosion of Long Term Capital Management whose investments were in way "long term". They were highly leveraged and small hiccup in Asia caused them to implode.

I suspect natural gas prices will come back to Earth, following Oil prices.
 
So I've really wanted to invest my hsa funds into some standard index funds.... but my problem is that with the volatility right now it sure would suck to invest it all for the market to have a correction.

So what does everyone's magic 8 ball say? Correction still to come or volatility to stabalize?
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
So what does everyone's magic 8 ball say? Correction still to come or volatility to stabalize?
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Depends on what the Fed does. Next couple months would be the perfect time to do the correction, but perhaps if the Fed stops increasing rates you would get some volitility but ultimately it would be a flat market.
 
ponyo said:
Last week or so there was big blowup in the natural gas commodity market and everyone was wondering which commodity hedge fund blew up. It was this guy, James Cordier of OptionSellers.com. It's my belief that everyone blows up at least once during their trading career. And that experience will really humble you. If you haven't blown up at least once in your career, you haven't been trading long enough.

Click to expand...


Listening to the video I felt bad for him, then I read what he did. Idiot. He took massive risk with his clients money and knew what he was doing could bankrupt his fund in a worst case scenario, but he was greedy and did it anyway. The massive loss those who were shorting the VIX faced in February should have warned him of the danger of "rogue waves" as he calls them. This is why I invest in passive index funds.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...-fund-blew-overnight-and-what-we-can-learn-it
 
Ooh, apparently the Fed chief had a speech today; and around 12 or so the entire market almost immediately rose 1%. Guess they liked what they heard.
 
Looks like we're back on track for a Xmas rally. Story came out just a few hours ago.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/g20-trump-xi-jinping-trade-war-meeting-truce-today-2018-12-01/

And don't forget this Wednesday is off:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/01/business/markets-closed-george-h-w-bush/index.html

But Monday and Tuesday could sizzle. And maybe by the end of the month I can seriously pay off some more big bills. Edit - I rarely buy and that's only to add to existing mutual funds. So I'll just use dividends and sell some fund shares for cash later in the month if a lasting rally starts on Monday.
 
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PlanetJosh said:
Looks like we're back on track for a Xmas rally. Story came out just a few hours ago.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/g20-trump-xi-jinping-trade-war-meeting-truce-today-2018-12-01/

And don't forget this Wednesday is off:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/01/business/markets-closed-george-h-w-bush/index.html

But Monday and Tuesday could sizzle. And maybe by the end of the month I can seriously pay off some more big bills. Edit - I rarely buy and that's only to add to existing mutual funds. So I'll just use dividends and sell some fund shares for cash later in the month if a lasting rally starts on Monday.
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The markets could ralley, but I think it will be a one day wonder. Until this thing is finally settled, any pronouncements on Twitter or trade related innuendo will be a drag for the next 90 days. Either way, there is still a 10% tariff already in effect.
 
Rates and oil markets signaling a cooling in a way over heated economy.

I knew yesterday was just a one day phenomenon.

Who knows what happens tomorrow, but the few months may continue this bear market cycle.
 
FelixDeCat said:
Rates and oil markets signaling a cooling in a way over heated economy.

I knew yesterday was just a one day phenomenon.

Who knows what happens tomorrow, but the few months may continue this bear market cycle.
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Bear market? Looks at Tesla. Shrug. What bear market? 😎
 
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Still not at the lows of the year although SPY will be just under where it started the year.

And yes, the Fed rate odds have slowed considerably although they do still think a hike is happening at the meeting in December. But it could be 6 months or more before another rate action.
 
I don't think this bull market is ready to give up the ghost just yet. But I'm reasonably sure that the volatility we're seeing now is like all those tiny little temblors that come long before the Big One.

Not that I think there will necessarily be a Big One ala '87 or '08. But capitalist economies have always been cursed with the rise and fall of the normal business cycle.

The biggest problem I see right now is liquidity. You have the fed unloading assets like Robin Hood throwing coins from horseback. And they've given no indication that they plan to stop. 3-4 trillion in assets can drain a f*ckload of liquidity, even if it happens over 10 or 20 years.

At the same time, you have one of the biggest federal giveaways in modern memory. That means that at the same time the fed is dumping paper into the bond market, you have a morbidly obese Uncle Sam making himself comfortable at the all you can eat treasury paper cafe. So there goes more liquidity.

That means that no matter what the fed does or doesn't do with interest rates, those puppies are going up - one way or another.
 
Powell gave a bullish speech yesterday, needless to say it's going to open red. Plus the jobs report, if it's "good" you could see it go another percent or two down.
 
jpiniero said:
Powell gave a bullish speech yesterday, needless to say it's going to open red. Plus the jobs report, if it's "good" you could see it go another percent or two down.
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Job report came in about 25% under expectation. Earnings growth came in a 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. October jobs numbers were revised down by 17,000.

Not sure if this will remove anything from the Fed as the Fed seems bent on getting back to a 'normal' interest rate range, regardless of economic conditions up or down.
 
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