***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

2017 https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2017-stock-market-thread.2495701/
2016 https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2016-stock-market-thread.2458181/
2015 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2414978

In this topic - speculators speculating about stocks and other investments.

 

[Chaotic42]

My AMD stock isn't doing too great. I'm going to try and do more investing this year, selectively of course. I get the feeling that a "correction" is coming.

 

[brianmanahan]

my predictions: US stocks down %20 by EOY, international stocks down %5 by EOY

 

[JEDI]

my predictions: US stocks down %20 by EOY, international stocks down %5 by EOY

i wouldn't go that far.
fundamentals are good (ie: corp profits) so stock market isn't going to fall that much despite Trump being pres.

but there's probably a profit sell off starting in jan, and ending in march.
i plan to re-convert the $500k in stock converted to long term corp bonds back to stock in 2Q next year.
https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2017-stock-market-thread.2495701/page-22#post-39228614

 

[KB]

My crystal ball says we are moving towards the peak of the business cycle with a downturn in 2019 or 2020 - US markets up 5% EOY, international up 9%. We get two interest raises this year and two next year before the downturn.

 

[turtile]

My AMD stock isn't doing too great. I'm going to try and do more investing this year, selectively of course. I get the feeling that a "correction" is coming.

I think AMD will do well once EPYC becomes established in the market. It's just going to take until the end of 2018 to early 2019 for that to start to happen.

My crystal ball says we are moving towards the peak of the business cycle with a downturn in 2019 or 2020 - US markets up 5% EOY, international up 9%. We get two interest raises this year and two next year before the downturn.

The tax break should help pull up stocks and after that, I see trouble unless they figure out how to push more cash into the market.

 

[dullard]

but there's probably a profit sell off starting in jan, and ending in march.
i plan to re-convert the $500k in stock converted to long term corp bonds back to stock in 2Q next year.

I assume the same thing. No one in their right mind sold many stocks with short-term capital gains this year with the rumored tax cuts. But now that the tax cuts are cemented in, I see a strong incentive to take profits in January at the new lower short-term capital gains tax brackets. Then I see lots of volatility as companies shift money officially to the US (which in many cases was already in the US but on loan from the foreign companies, which are owned by the US companies, so essentially the money sloshes around back and forth causing volatility).

Today I just rebalanced $50k from stocks into stable funds. I was pretty heavy in stocks all year, so it was a necessary move for a better portfolio mix. If JEDI is correct that there is a correction, I'll probably move some of that back into stocks.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The market took a dump in the last few mins of trading. Next week should be interesting.

 

[Charmonium]

I think we see at least 10% gains in the US market this year.

I don't think the market goes significantly negative until we see a spike in interest rates. There's more economic activity now so there's more lending which is creating more money via the money multiplier. That's going to keep interest rates low and stimulate inflation.

The fed is going to continue to normalize its balance sheet and sell assets which will drain liquidity and have a countervailing effect. But they won't be that aggressive in doing this so the predominant trend will be for more liquidity.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think we see at least 10% gains in the US market this year.

I don't think the market goes significantly negative until we see a spike in interest rates. There's more economic activity now so there's more lending which is creating more money via the money multiplier. That's going to keep interest rates low and stimulate inflation.

The fed is going to continue to normalize its balance sheet and sell assets which will drain liquidity and have a countervailing effect. But they won't be that aggressive in doing this so the predominant trend will be for more liquidity.

I don't see a 20%+ correction any time soon...but there are times the market tends to temporarily freak out over nothing, quickly causing a 5-10% drop over a weeks time or less.

Then we all calm down and the market eventually goes back up over time.

 

[brianmanahan]

i think many people and companies will be getting out of stocks and into crypto

 

[FelixDeCat]

i think many people and companies will be getting out of stocks and into crypto

I'd rather own gold. I don't think I will ever own bit"coins", etc.

 

[ImpulsE69]

I really didn't understand the massive selloff on Friday. I expected a selloff on Tuesday after the new 'lower' tax goes into effect.

 

[FIVR]

I really didn't understand the massive selloff on Friday. I expected a selloff on Tuesday after the new 'lower' tax goes into effect.

it's called the "wash rule". If you sell your losses before the end of the year you can deduct them from your taxes. This results in many investors selling their losses at the end of the year. It happens literally every year.

 

[FIVR]

I am avoiding cryptos but investing heavily in Canadian medical marijuana stocks. There was an ETF created last week (MJX) that holds many different weed stocks. I bought in at 31.89.

I also managed to get into ACBFF @ 6.40 last week. I think the next few months will be very good for weed stocks with the constant news about CA and Canada legalizing.

 

[FIVR]

i think many people and companies will be getting out of stocks and into crypto

Crypto is a bubble right now. If you are into swing trading pump and dumps then go for it.


Weed stocks > cryptos

 

[JEDI]

i think many people and companies will be getting out of stocks and into crypto

crypto currencies.. the next beanie baby.
but at least with beanie babies, it's tangible.

hell, Internet game Gold is more tangible than cryptos.
at least with game gold, you can use it to improve your game character.

what can the avg person do with cryptos?

 

[brianmanahan]

what can the avg person do with cryptos?

wait until it goes up 20x in value and then sell it

 

[FIVR]

wait until it goes up 20x in value and then sell it

Worked great for the beanie baby investors

 

[Engineer]

it's called the "wash rule". If you sell your losses before the end of the year you can deduct them from your taxes. This results in many investors selling their losses at the end of the year. It happens literally every year.

It would have made sense to actually do just that at the end of 2017 to take advantage of the write off while the taxes were higher.

The new tax rates will lower any makeup that I can get from my old loss carry forwards from years ago.

 

[FIVR]

It would have made sense to actually do just that at the end of 2017 to take advantage of the write off while the taxes were higher.

The new tax rates will lower any makeup that I can get from my old loss carry forwards from years ago.

Just make sure you wait 30 days before you buy the holdings back, otherwise they are non-deductible.

 

[FIVR]

I really think this MJX ETF is going to take off this month. AMD is poised to rally also. Max Pain for January expiry calls is $12. Millions of dollars that option sellers are set to lose unless AMD rally to 12$ by January 19th. I expect Goldman to upgrade soon also as they've been accumulating shares for a long while, and the stock basically lined up with their 1 year PT (10.40). I hate Goldman but I have occasional access to some of their institutional resources and they do know their shit.

 

[FIVR]

I told you guys weed stocks were the 2018 play. ACBFF up 12% this morning already.

 

[fastamdman]

crypto currencies.. the next beanie baby.
but at least with beanie babies, it's tangible.

hell, Internet game Gold is more tangible than cryptos.
at least with game gold, you can use it to improve your game character.

what can the avg person do with cryptos?

Average person can make a lot of money with it for one. Secondly, they can use it to buy stuff online and in the real world. There are a decent amount of places accepting bitcoin out there now. The fact that it's not very easily traceable and can be used for all sorts of stuff, makes it extremely valuable to some.

 

[FIVR]

24.25% in one day (ACBFF)


Weed stocks 1, Crypto 0