***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Damn it, Canada's GDP went positive for the second month in a row, CAD is rallying against USD.

The "good" longer term news is that GDP is likely rallying due to real-estate and related markets, and Canadians setting new record debt levels -- because everyone can afford million dollar houses here. It sure isn't rallying based on commodities that China doesn't seem to want as much anymore.
 
U

Udgnim

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2008
3,681
124
106
holden j caufield said:
If apple sold 30% more iphones opening weekend how is their stock getting hammered so hard.
Click to expand...

China wasn't involved in initial sales last time

China is involved now, so either people wanted the #s to be much higher than 30% or its because general market sentiment has been negative and news has to be really good for the market to react positively
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Job numbers for September in America kind of sucked... Almost guarantees no rate hike for a long time?

I may as well plow it all back into PFF then, get some cash-flow going. Part of me wants to cash out into CAD but I know that the fundamentals of Canada's economy suck -- substantial portion reliant on real-estate and commodities, overly indebted/tapped out consumers.
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,533
3,532
136
Imp said:
Job numbers for September in America kind of sucked... Almost guarantees no rate hike for a long time?

I may as well plow it all back into PFF then, get some cash-flow going. Part of me wants to cash out into CAD but I know that the fundamentals of Canada's economy suck -- substantial portion reliant on real-estate and commodities, overly indebted/tapped out consumers.
Click to expand...
One bad jobs report isn't that big of a deal and the unemployment rate is still at 5.1%. If the trend continues, they might not hike until next year.

The real issue for the fed is the participation rate. Yellen believes that there is still slack in the labor market because we're only around a 60% participation rate when historically it should be a few percentage points higher. But some economists believe most of the slack has been wrung out of the market. Labor cost index has already started to increase but not enough to cause inflation, especially in light of the disinflationary factors like energy and commodities.

If the trend continues, the fed will probably postpone a hike until 2016. But the strength of the dollar isn't solely dependent upon rates. We're still the strongest economy in the world and as long as that's the case, the dollar will be in high demand.
 
M

MustISO

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
11,927
12
81
Scottrade should be fined into the ground if they were found to have poor security practices which I'm sure is the case. Companies want to pay as little as possible for security and when customers' data is impacted they aren't held sufficiently responsible.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,009
2,681
126
Nasdaq will go back to 5000 on better than expected earnings this quarter but I suspect NFLX is going to crash.
 
KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
Imp said:
Ouchies... POT withdrew bid for K+S:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-nixes-87-billion-bid-for-ks/article26647451/

There was talk that the stock could go back up if the bid were successful. Maybe they priced it in already but this might get ugly.
Click to expand...

The shares are climbing because their original bid would have overpaid for a company that due to union/labor issues, would have been less flexible than POT. It would have also given them a lot of debt and increased the risk of a dividend cut.

If you are not willing to wait for the next commodity super cycle then I would stay out of all commodities. I have small positions in oil, potash and copper. About every 5 - 15 years these stocks triple when demand picks up.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Yep, POT is up.

Suncor doing a hostile takeover of Canadian Oil Sands... up 48% in one day. Now at CA$ 9.20-ish, still significantly lower than the CA$ 10.50-ish when I got out of it. Would have been a nice one day gain though.

Edit: It's a "bid" so nothing's done yet -- that explains why there's such a big premium right now. Apparently, they bid around CA$ 12.50 earlier in the year. Might fall through again.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/sun...with-bid-for-canadian-oil-sands-ltd-1.3257093
 
Last edited:
sm625

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Alright, its that time again. Tomorrow is the 6th trading day of the month. Which means it is time to evaluate my picks from last month

MWSnap_2015_10_07_19_36_27.jpg


NFLX and PSA did good, the rest were meh. 2% monthly return.

I did some more work on the software, since the two purge buttons clearly are not adequate for filtering out bad picks. The chart navigator makes it really easy to cycle through the charts and weed out the bad picks. A stock must have a 50dma above its 75dma for the vast majority of the last 30 days, 90 days, AND 6 months. And those two moving averages must both be above the 200dma for the vast majority of those same 3 periods. If it is too close to call from a quick glance at the chart, then I discard the pick. Also, the stock absolutely must not close under its 200dma at any point in the last 10 days. Those are the rules. I removed PVH because it clearly is not meeting those rules. I will eventually automate these rules, but for now I just have to cycle through the charts and click the delete button to filter out bad picks. Not a big deal. I'm not going to go through that effort unless the returns prove to be better than 2% a month.

Anyway, here are the picks for october:

MWSnap_2015_10_07_22_44_04.jpg


Symbols used are the entire S&P500.
 
Last edited:
JTsyo

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
12,032
1,132
126
I get the Zacks newsletter and so far they have been saying stay long but the last week, it's been "bear is coming". Not sure if they see it coming or if they are trying to push their "making profits during a bear market" program.
 
JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
JTsyo said:
I get the Zacks newsletter and so far they have been saying stay long but the last week, it's been "bear is coming". Not sure if they see it coming or if they are trying to push their "making profits during a bear market" program.
Click to expand...

people actually take Zacks seriously?
 
KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
JTsyo said:
I get the Zacks newsletter and so far they have been saying stay long but the last week, it's been "bear is coming". Not sure if they see it coming or if they are trying to push their "making profits during a bear market" program.
Click to expand...

I visit marketwatch.com periodically and I noticed that whatever the market is doing, they will have articles telling you to do the opposite. Markets up, the articles say sell, markets falling, they say buy. Saying a contrarian point of view is what sells news.
 
dr150

dr150

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2003
6,570
24
81
KB said:
I visit marketwatch.com periodically and I noticed that whatever the market is doing, they will have articles telling you to do the opposite. Markets up, the articles say sell, markets falling, they say buy. Saying a contrarian point of view is what sells news.
Click to expand...

Too true. I also noticed that with them.

That site is a heavily weighted wall of worry. :biggrin:
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Fed meeting minutes came out around 2pm and caused a rally... something about a rate hike still being in line for this year -- lulz, ya, that's what you've been saying for over a year, and I believed you. Useless.
 
U

Udgnim

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2008
3,681
124
106
Imp said:
Fed meeting minutes came out around 2pm and caused a rally... something about a rate hike still being in line for this year -- lulz, ya, that's what you've been saying for over a year, and I believed you. Useless.
Click to expand...

yeah, can't really get a read on anything

no September rate hike, markets tumble

low September job #s, markets rally

Fed says they plan to still raise rates before end of year, markets rally
 
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