***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

US pres candidates should use Greece as an example of what happens when you elect someone with empty promises w/no plans to back it up.

ie: eliminate Obamacare with a better, more effective alternative

hopefully, a majority of US voters aren't as stupid/ignorant as greek voters.


so if the US is close to defaulting, shift EVERY last $ you have into into Gold because the US will print its way out of debt?

I dont know what my financial situation will be in the future, but GOLD or other hard assets like real estate seem like a good idea if it looks like we have finally jumped the shark, especially if another huge fiscal or natural calamity hits. Printing more money does not solve debt woes, it is just a temporary measure. You have to either get your creditors to agree to take a haircut or cancel the existing currency and issue new money, which is what I think America will do one day.

Here is what a classic national default looks like as reported on the nightly news in 1982:

http://abcnews.go.com/Archives/video...risis-14160865

 

[Charmonium]

Gold tends to be counter cyclical. From Kitco:

Not sure why this is but it seems to be a trend. My guess is that as the US economy strengthens so does the dollar. Since gold is traded in dollars, as the dollar goes up, gold goes down.

One exception to this is inflation fears. In 2011 when gold peaked, everyone thought that money printing by the fed was going to create hyper inflation. But that was an example of a little knowledge being dangerous. Most of the $3-4T the fed created to buy securities like treasuries and MBS was locked into excess reserves that banks had to hold. None of that money could be spent directly. When the promised financial Armageddon never came, gold bugs gradually crawled back into the wood work.

They had the right idea, a devalued currency makes gold worth more, but didn't understand what was really happening.

 

[Imp]

So, it may actually be going down in Greece. Shits given appear to be zero though.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Printing more money does not solve debt woes, it is just a temporary measure.

Please read up on fiat currency and understand the PROS and cons before you say that.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Please read up on fiat currency and understand the PROS and cons before you say that.

Mexico deflated the currency heavily in 1982, all it did was brought Americans across the border to buy cheap gas and meat. They still defaulted.

Watch the video I posted, its only 2 mins long and will tell you that.

ALSO IN THE NEWS......

DOW FUTURES -250, NASDAQ -70, S&P -33



Glad I bought puts!

I remember the Mexican, Russian and Argentina defaults and how the market reacted. In a few days it will be safe to buy for a quick flip. Watch out for banks though, they will have to announce how much Greek exposure they have....probably not much by now.

 

[dr150]

I remember the Mexican, Russian and Argentina defaults and how the market reacted. In a few days it will be safe to buy for a quick flip. Watch out for banks though, they will have to announce how much Greek exposure they have....probably not much by now.

This is a different situation. This problem has been telegraphed since 2011. Europe/Markets will be fine. Most of it has been priced in. Speculators (like me) will just take advantage of the volatility for the duration of this Grexit.

Fuckin Tsipras thinks the Germans give a shit if they default. Well surrrrpiiiiise mother fuckers. The Greeks completely misread their bargaining position.

Tspiras thinks he's Spain or Italy to be talking shit.

Dumbass fails to realize Greece is only 1.8% of Euro GDP.

He'll soon be known as the clown who took Greece out of the Euro and turned it into a Venezuela.

....Though you gotta blame the Greeks for voting this fool and his party into power and believing his empty promises.

Markets will bleed red this week(s) but I view it as a great opportunity to buy some shit on sale.......I loves the smell of napalm in tha morning!

 

[Udgnim]

So, it may actually be going down in Greece. Shits given appear to be zero though.

if a Greece default is strong enough to trigger a global recession, then Greece would not be allowed to default. the cost of keeping Greece afloat is minuscule compared to the cost of a recession being triggered, so I don't think a Greece default is going to cause a recession.

Monday will be red and this week will probably be down, but it'll be recovered sooner than later

 

[Charmonium]

The futures market is still down about 200 points with the start of regular trading 7 hours away, but I think the futures are normally overly pessimistic. We'll see. There's no reason there should be a sell off but you might get one with everyone trying to anticipate the market.

 

[Imp]

Asian markets down like 2-3% as of 4:30am -ish EST Monday, DOW futures down 1%. Let's see what's in store after the sun's up.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Asian markets down like 2-3% as of 4:30am -ish EST Monday, DOW futures down 1%. Let's see what's in store after the sun's up.

Do you honestly see a 5%+ correction? So far futures are indeed down 1%.

I'm wondering which day I should buy. Trying to guess which day will be the lowest.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Stay away today. Sold my NFLX puts and decided to short solars for a nice scalp. Was really tempted to buy QQQ puts but they were too pricey.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Stay away today. Sold my NFLX puts and decided to short solars for a nice scalp. Was really tempted to buy QQQ puts but they were too pricey.

I'm simply at a point where I need to start putting some into my ROTH Vanguard Index Funds, but I'm trying to get them at their lowest point of the year. Yeah, I'm a cheap ass, so what, wanna fight about it?

 

[edro]

I feel like gambling on Greece.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:NBG
Down 25% today.

Of course, I also thought about gambling on them last week too. :hmm:

 

[Charmonium]

I feel like gambling on Greece.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:NBG
Down 25% today.

Of course, I also thought about gambling on them last week too. :hmm:

I'm not really sure what's happening right now. The Greeks have scheduled a referendum on the EU bail out proposal that Greece has so far rejected. That's going to happen Sunday or essentially a week from today. But they need to pay back a couple of billion euros by tomorrow evening and they don't have the money. So I'm not seeing the purpose of the referendum. The EU or IMF or whoever doesn't seem to be willing to extend financing past tomorrow so I don't see the point of the referendum.

 

[Scarpozzi]

I'm not really sure what's happening right now. The Greeks have scheduled a referendum on the EU bail out proposal that Greece has so far rejected. That's going to happen Sunday or essentially a week from today. But they need to pay back a couple of billion euros by tomorrow evening and they don't have the money. So I'm not seeing the purpose of the referendum. The EU or IMF or whoever doesn't seem to be willing to extend financing past tomorrow so I don't see the point of the referendum.

That's because someone has to pay interest on the money that's owed. The problem with this is that kicking the can down the road for this amount of money only increases the amount of money owned AND perceived risk. Basically, it's the same situation for the common man when they get underwater....you can't get low interest loans anymore and are going to have a time gaining trust of anyone. A lot of Germans and Japanese have bought into the Greek economy and it's going to be bad tomorrow.

ON the upside, I bought an inverse leveraged ETF last week expecting this when it wasn't resolved...so I just made some quick cash and my monthly retirement contributions are probably going to enjoy coming in a when the market is a few points down from this. Since I'm young, I like it when the market takes a hit in the end/beginning of the month.

 

[Imp]

Do you honestly see a 5%+ correction? So far futures are indeed down 1%.

I'm wondering which day I should buy. Trying to guess which day will be the lowest.

From the crap I've seen people overreact to over the past 5 years, possibly.

Not that I care, I'm all cash right now and waiting for the Fed hike to see if people overreact.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

From the crap I've seen people overreact to over the past 5 years, possibly.

Not that I care, I'm all cash right now and waiting for the Fed hike to see if people overreact.

Well, so far DOW/S&P are both down 1.5% today, and has been slowly increasing all-day. Let's see if it continues into tomorrow.

Given how volatile the market is though, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks up 1% tomorrow.

 

[Charmonium]

That's because someone has to pay interest on the money that's owed. The problem with this is that kicking the can down the road for this amount of money only increases the amount of money owned AND perceived risk. Basically, it's the same situation for the common man when they get underwater....you can't get low interest loans anymore and are going to have a time gaining trust of anyone. A lot of Germans and Japanese have bought into the Greek economy and it's going to be bad tomorrow.

Thanks, but what I don't understand is what is the point of the referendum if they're going to default before it ever happens? My guess is that this was proposed as a delaying tactic by Tsipras and the EU didn't buy it.

 

[NikolaeVarius]

Thanks, but what I don't understand is what is the point of the referendum if they're going to default before it ever happens? My guess is that this was proposed as a delaying tactic by Tsipras and the EU didn't buy it.

Well, effectively its a referendum to decide whether or not Greece should stay in the EU after the default.

 

[dr150]

The referendum by Tsipras is gamesmanship for him to stay in power.

The popular sentiment based on Greek polls is that the population wants to stay IN the Euro.

With the highly likely YES vote, Tsipras (betting this outcome) can capitulate to Euro reform demands while not suffering blowback from the voting community, as he's "honoring" popular opinion of his people, despite his party propaganda platform of never giving in to the banksters/EU.

As far as a technical default, this is a drawn out 6+ month process which gives a defaulting country every chance to get its shit together in the interim. So Tuesday's "default" is relatively meaningless in the grad scheme of things regarding negotiations......Lagarde said as much that she was willing to deal if the Greeks were to vote YES on Sunday.

In the unlikely event that Sunday's vote is a resounding NO, then Greece/Tsipras will most likely leave, barring that the EU blinks and gives a Marshall Plan type of deal to avoid a white knight country like Russia or China put its destabilizing mitts into the region.

This clown Tsipras can come out looking like a genius or pariah depending on his poker bets. We'll see.

Too much drama for such a small economy. Contagion won't happen despite Tsipras wishes.

 

[Charmonium]

Thanks for clearing that up for me. I was under the impression that a default automatically triggered something but from what I've been reading, the EU doesn't even have any rules about how or when a member state is to be ejected.

Do you really think that most Greeks are going to vote in favor of the referendum? From what I understand there are some pretty serious austerity measures. Although if the alternative is the collapse of the banking system there, I don't suppose they have any choice. I guess it depends on who wins the propaganda war.

 

[Imp]

P.S. China's stock market is officially a bear after yesterday (today for us)... down 20% in like 3 weeks.

Let's see if this causes house prices to fall -- Chinese are apparently buying it all up in Canada.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Greece has defaulted on its national debt five other times since its independence: 1826, 1843, 1860, 1894 and 1932.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-brief-history-of-financial-crises-in-greece-214114194.html#

How long it will be before other countries have to "belly up to the bar" and reconcile their hefty debt loads, including the US?

OPA!

 

[NikolaeVarius]

Hmm, while I'm not usually a "time the market" guy, my investments have take a pretty decent hit today.

I wonder when would be a good time to start pumping money in.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Hmm, while I'm not usually a "time the market" guy, my investments have take a pretty decent hit today.

I wonder when would be a good time to start pumping money in.

Puerto Rico says it will not pay its debts.