***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

What a boring month... Oil is hovering around $50, CAD$ around USD$ 0.80.

Mostly cash now. Missing my dividends because I'm trying to time the market and buy back in at a lower price -- I think it's topped out and about to correct.

 

[ghost recon88]

Mostly cash now. Missing my dividends because I'm trying to time the market and buy back in at a lower price -- I think it's topped out and about to correct.

People said the same thing a month ago, yet look at how much it grew in Feb :awe:

 

[Imp]

People said the same thing a month ago, yet look at how much it grew in Feb :awe:

I know, I hate this, but I can't help myself trying to time these things.


In other news, AAPL is going to be on the DOW starting later this month? Heard it's replacing AT&T. Wouldn't it make more sense to replace IBM with AAPL?

 

[brianmanahan]

Mostly cash now. Missing my dividends

you're not really missing out on anything, since dividends don't actually make you money

 

[jpiniero]

The stock market is so overpriced that rising interest rates will hurt stocks more than bonds, heh. Well at least until it gets into balance. Granted rates will likely not rise much, but still.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The stock market is so overpriced that rising interest rates will hurt stocks more than bonds, heh. Well at least until it gets into balance. Granted rates will likely not rise much, but still.

You are talking about Fed rates of no more than 1 to 2%, if that. Mortgages still below 6%. Nothing is going to change.

And it wont hurt a damn thing, other than to provide cover for idiots to cause YET ANOTHER faux selloff, rally, selloff and finally a rally back over above where we are now.

Seen it a trillion times in 20+ years, this is nothing different. Its just a game and a lie. Best to avoid it.

 

[Imp]

You are talking about Fed rates of no more than 1 to 2%, if that. Mortgages still below 6%. Nothing is going to change.

And it wont hurt a damn thing, other than to provide cover for idiots to cause YET ANOTHER faux selloff, rally, selloff and finally a rally back over above where we are now.

Seen it a trillion times in 20+ years, this is nothing different. Its just a game and a lie. Best to avoid it.

Come on faux selloff... Last time there was talk of QE ending and interest rates rising, my preferreds dropped over 10%. They regained most of their value while I collected 5+% payouts for over a year. Can't wait for another run. Hope it overcorrects so the next raise won't cause much trouble.

 

[KB]

Interest rates won't rise much no matter what the fed does. European debt has interest rates in negative territory. People would love to loan Uncle Sam money at greater than 2% and when they do they will be driving down our treasury rates again. I am enjoying 5% dividends on Many stock and etfs like Dwx, ediv, gsk, tot, rds. We won't see 5% interest rates on savings accounts for 5 plus years if ever.

 

[holden j caufield]

Can't see why there was such a big sell off friday. Pretty decent jobs report considering the weather/oil. Kind of ridiculous the way market has been swinging this year.

 

[jpiniero]

Can't see why there was such a big sell off friday. Pretty decent jobs report considering the weather/oil. Kind of ridiculous the way market has been swinging this year.

See my post above for why.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Can't see why there was such a big sell off friday. Pretty decent jobs report considering the weather/oil. Kind of ridiculous the way market has been swinging this year.

"because zomg rates might go up .0001%! cant have that no-sir-eee bob, even though we have been begging for it for 18 months now"

better economic numbers next week? zomg more selloff for fears of .0002% rates!!!!

faux selloff

 

[ghost recon88]

So would now be a good time to move my money into a monkey market and wait for the self-correction before buying back in, or do you think ride it out a month or so until it actually starts consistently correcting?

 

[FelixDeCat]

So would now be a good time to move my money into a monkey market and wait for the self-correction before buying back in, or do you think ride it out a month or so until it actually starts consistently correcting?

Hard to say. Classic market timing is to sell in May. But for now anything can happen until the first week of April....when 1st Quarter numbers come out for all companies.

Best not to play.

 

[Imp]

I'm technically still invested due to forex, but waiting is hard... So much cash could be making (or losing) money right now. June seems like the best time to make a move due to potential rate change -- earliest estimate I've heard.

 

[Imp]

Something something SELL MORTIMER SELL! Rate hike worries or something.

I'm 90% cash, but seeing that 10% tank is still annoying.

 

[ghost recon88]

I'm moving to a money market after closing today, screw the instability. I'm OK sitting at status quo until it figures itself out.

 

[KB]

I love how the markets responds to interest rate hike fears: by buying Treasuries and driving down interest rates. The rising dollar is decreasing inflation, meaning the Fed won't hit its inflation targets and rates are less likely to rise. Markets be crazy, but that means more value to be had.

 

[MustISO]

Anyone into the Inverse Commodities? They are killing it this year (Oil). I know nothing about investing in these types of funds but damn are the returns crazy this year.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ok, so now we had our faux selloff, followed by the sharp reversal upward. Time for another faux selloff on "rate increase fears", followed by another reversal.

All this faux drama. The brokers love it.

Totally unnecessary.

 

[Nograts]

Okay need some Roth advice since I just put 9k in for 2014 for the wife and I:

Current holdings are

28k VFINX (SP500)
7k VGTSX (Foreign INDX)

I just put in 9k and I'm leaning towards putting all of it into maybe:

VGSIX (Vanguard REIT)
OR
NAESX (Small Cap)

This investment will sit for 30+ years before I realize the gains. Which of these two would you pick? Is there a different fund you'd suggest? (no bonds plz) Should I dump all 9k into one or beef up the VFINX as well?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

AS for Roth-IRA ... I have decided that I am simply going to start buying companies like Leucadia National and Fairfax there. And then let the best manage my money.


Do that for 20-30 years and you will be just fine. And do much better than indexes.

 

[brianmanahan]

Okay need some Roth advice since I just put 9k in for 2014 for the wife and I:

Current holdings are

28k VFINX (SP500)
7k VGTSX (Foreign INDX)

I just put in 9k and I'm leaning towards putting all of it into maybe:

VGSIX (Vanguard REIT)
OR
NAESX (Small Cap)

This investment will sit for 30+ years before I realize the gains. Which of these two would you pick? Is there a different fund you'd suggest? (no bonds plz) Should I dump all 9k into one or beef up the VFINX as well?

because you are holding VFINX, you dont have any US small caps in your Roth IRA. therefore i would take NAESX before VGSIX.

but there is a fund, VTSMX/VTSAX, which is the US total market, so basically a combination of VFINX and NAESX.

if it were me, i would do the following:

1. exchange VFINX for VTSMX or VTSAX (if you have all that 28$k in one account)
2. use the 9$k to buy more VTSMX and VGTSX to get your US vs international allocation to the percentages that you want.

i use 2/3 US & 1/3 international but vanguard recommends anywhere between %20 and %50 for international.

 

[brianmanahan]

I have decided that I am simply going to start buying companies like Leucadia National and Fairfax there. And then let the best manage my money.

Do that for 20-30 years and you will be just fine. And do much better than indexes.

if you are just buying holding companies, what makes you think it'll be that much different than index returns?

 

[Imp]

So.... oil down below $48 again. Something supply increase.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ok, so now we had our faux selloff, followed by the sharp reversal upward. Time for another faux selloff on "rate increase fears", followed by another reversal.

All this faux drama. The brokers love it.

Totally unnecessary.

Every call correct so far. Cynicism and experience payoff!

More drama next week on faux "rate fears" over .01% interest rates.

Might be good to buy cheap QQQ puts /calls and cash in on both.