• We’re currently investigating an issue related to the forum theme and styling that is impacting page layout and visual formatting. The problem has been identified, and we are actively working on a resolution. There is no impact to user data or functionality, this is strictly a front-end display issue. We’ll post an update once the fix has been deployed. Thanks for your patience while we get this sorted.

***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

Page 27 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
JTsyo said:
Don't count on that. Some of the peripherals like ocean drillers are cutting dividends.
Click to expand...

I'm expecting a cut. The POS is yielding almost 10% (using trailing year dividends?) now due to the price drops. It's usually around ~7%.

It's tar sands, so probably the riskiest next to shale.
 
monkeydelmagico said:
I suspect this is only one facet of the larger picture. At the very least there are some sizeable drilling rights and equipment consolidation about to occur. The weak hands at the table are going to fold in short order.
Click to expand...

ahh.. opec trying to stop the consolidation and the efficiencies of size/scope?

makes more sense about why opec keeping oil prices low.
(this only temporarily shuts down shale oil production.)

when prices goes up, shale oil comes back.
yes, some of the old shale companies might be bankrupted. but someone new will take their place.
 
JEDI said:
ahh.. opec trying to stop the consolidation and the efficiencies of size/scope?

makes more sense about why opec keeping oil prices low.
(this only temporarily shuts down shale oil production.)

when prices goes up, shale oil comes back.
yes, some of the old shale companies might be bankrupted. but someone new will take their place.
Click to expand...

My impression is that by killing off current shale oil producers, it'll force the companies to start from scratch. If this actually works, many producers may have to sell of their equipment, close their companies, and go into receivership. Do it long enough and skilled workers may move to different industries.

That might force oil prices back up, but the next wave will probably need years to ramp production back up to high levels due to worker migration, equipment supplies, etc. Not only that, they probably won't get financing as easily because OPEC might do the same thing.

The big players who are diversified with traditional oil production would probably be fine. They could probably get back into it ASAP, but OPEC will factor in again.

Kwatt said:
The new guys might have a tougher time getting financing though.

Maybe we can pony up for another bail-out?

.
Click to expand...

Let's see what Canada does if this is the event that pops the housing bubble...
 
Local players with deeper pockets will just consolidate the better shale reserves and up production whenever the price justifies it.

I view the current lowered price aimed at Iran and Russia, not so much the USA shale producers. Politically, this is Saudi Arabia going after Syria much more then the USA. The USA story is probably just a smoke screen.

Michael
 
Do you guys subscribe to any paid newsletters? Any suggestions?

I had subscribed to Small Stock Specialist ran by Frank Curzio at Stansberry Research, but he got booted. His newsletter was fantastic, and got me a few big winners (ie Skywork Solutions at $25, recently Macrogenics at $18). I'm trying to find a replacement. I really wanna try Deep Value ran by Dan Ferris but it's $1000/year! I love how these newsletters are super selective (1 stock pick a month), and they take the ride along with you, telling you exactly what to do with the stocks & updating you constantly on them.
 
flunky nassau said:
Do you guys subscribe to any paid newsletters? Any suggestions?

I had subscribed to Small Stock Specialist ran by Frank Curzio at Stansberry Research, but he got booted. His newsletter was fantastic, and got me a few big winners (ie Skywork Solutions at $25, recently Macrogenics at $18). I'm trying to find a replacement. I really wanna try Deep Value ran by Dan Ferris but it's $1000/year! I love how these newsletters are super selective (1 stock pick a month), and they take the ride along with you, telling you exactly what to do with the stocks & updating you constantly on them.
Click to expand...

Curzio still does his podcast, now called Wallstreet Unplugged, so you might follow that even though its free for now. Stansberry still has a ton of other newsletters to choose from. I can't comment on any in particular as I don't get them.
 
Imp said:
I'm expecting a cut. The POS is yielding almost 10% (using trailing year dividends?) now due to the price drops. It's usually around ~7%.

It's tar sands, so probably the riskiest next to shale.
Click to expand...

COS has cut its dividend as most expected it to. You still averaging down?


OPEC has called for $60 oil and I expect we will reach that level. They want to reach a point at which shale oil cuts production/goes bankrupt. I am accumulating some money so when we reach that point I may buy the big boys who have money on the balance sheet and should be able to buy up oil producing assets from the bankrupt shale companies. CVX, COP, RDS, PSX, XOM.
 
KB said:
COS has cut its dividend as most expected it to. You still averaging down?


OPEC has called for $60 oil and I expect we will reach that level. They want to reach a point at which shale oil cuts production/goes bankrupt. I am accumulating some money so when we reach that point I may buy the big boys who have money on the balance sheet and should be able to buy up oil producing assets from the bankrupt shale companies. CVX, COP, RDS, PSX, XOM.
Click to expand...

Buuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrrrrnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn............. POS is down almost 20% today. Think I'm down 40% on what I've already put in. Somehow, I'm still ahead for the year -- yay, diversification.

All the big players aren't doing too bad. SU, another oil sands player, maybe the biggest one, is only down 10-20% in the same period of time.

I'm not selling. Going to be an ugly year, oh well. And yep, probably going to pick some more up. I want to go all in... It would be a big gamble, but the selling just feels so overdone right now.

Edit: lol... I just put the new share price into my tracking spreadsheet and I'm not down as much as I thought. Why? Because I've lost so much money already. If I didn't have to live through the drops of 2011 and 2012, I'd be shitting myself right now.
 
Last edited:
KB said:
OPEC has called for $60 oil and I expect we will reach that level. They want to reach a point at which shale oil cuts production/goes bankrupt. I am accumulating some money so when we reach that point I may buy the big boys who have money on the balance sheet and should be able to buy up oil producing assets from the bankrupt shale companies. CVX, COP, RDS, PSX, XOM.
Click to expand...

where did u hear OPEC settling for $60/barrel target?

majority of shale oil is at breakeven at $60/barrel.
it needs to go below that to bankrupt them
 
JEDI said:
where did u hear OPEC settling for $60/barrel target?

majority of shale oil is at breakeven at $60/barrel.
it needs to go below that to bankrupt them
Click to expand...

But you think investors will invest in new shale oil capacity if the price of oil is 60 for the next two years?
 
JEDI said:
where did u hear OPEC settling for $60/barrel target?

majority of shale oil is at breakeven at $60/barrel.
it needs to go below that to bankrupt them
Click to expand...

Something about Middle East oil producers basing their budgets around ~$100/barrel -- can't help but feel shale companies did the same when starting their companies or investing in additional projects. Banks probably won't be that happy to lend money if companies are just breaking even, especially with the interest rates that are supposed to rise in 2015.

P.S. My butt still hurts from the amount of money I've lost so far.
 
JEDI said:
where did u hear OPEC settling for $60/barrel target?

majority of shale oil is at breakeven at $60/barrel.
it needs to go below that to bankrupt them
Click to expand...

http://seekingalpha.com/news/215873...ilize-near-60-bbl-crude-oil-loses-early-gains

"Saudi Arabia now expects oil prices to stabilize ~$60/bbl, a level both it and other Persian Gulf producers believe they could withstand, WSJ reports.The shift in Saudi thinking suggests the kingdom will not push for supply cuts in the near-term, even if oil prices fall further.The Gulf states “don’t have a price target and if prices drop further below $60, it won’t be for a long time,” according to a source."

If this article is correct OPEC isn't targeting $60/bbl, but thinks it is a likely to reach $60/bbl. They have the power to make this happen so thinking it and it happening is very likely. They also mention they won't cut even it it falls below that. Shale breakeven may be at $60, but they still have tons of debts to pay off putting them in a very difficult situation should prices reach and stay at $60.
 
Regarding shale and tar sands. A Lot of these companies hedge out for years. The ones that didn't will die first.

It would take years of $60 oil to hurt small producers.
 
R1418063510253432_1.jpg


What is this? I been scouring the web and I cant find any stories on these rather sizeable drawdowns. Is it a charting error? Several sites are giving the same chart. There are several large mutual funds that have given up all or most of their 2014 gains, but this one (GGOIX) is the worst I've seen so far.

Edit: the link appears to be messed up, but if you just google GGOIX and/or look at the charts you can see what I mean.
 
Hugo Drax said:
Looks like COS is heading towards 3-4 a share.
Click to expand...

Oh ya... they're pricing it for bankruptcy for some reason. "Bankruptcy" back in 2009 was $16.50, so dafuq is going on.

Think I'm going to stop averaging down. On the other hand, if it recovers now, easy doubling of money. Not selling just for the hope of it going back up.

Regardless, nice lesson in diversification and buying ETFs over individual stocks. I was up almost 14% this year up until 2 or 3 weeks ago. Only thing saving me now is the forex between CAD and USD -- if the housing market crashes, boo ya!
 
Last edited:
Imp said:
Oh ya... they're pricing it for bankruptcy for some reason. "Bankruptcy" back in 2009 was $16.50, so dafuq is going on.

Think I'm going to stop averaging down. On the other hand, if it recovers now, easy doubling of money. Not selling just for the hope of it going back up.

Regardless, nice lesson in diversification and buying ETFs over individual stocks. I was up almost 14% this year up until 2 or 3 weeks ago. Only thing saving me now is the forex between CAD and USD -- if the housing market crashes, boo ya!
Click to expand...

sell Dec 31 to harvest loses.
buy back Feb 1
 
JEDI said:
sell Dec 31 to harvest loses.
buy back Feb 1
Click to expand...

FML... totally would if it weren't for the 30 day wash trade rules. Any-time rebound = not going to bother. And half my losses are in a non-taxable account.


And don't anyone worry, but the world is ending... or something. Every headline on TV and Canadian news is all about the Toronto Stock Exchange and oil crashing. OMFGBBQ!!!

Also, COS will probably cut dividend again by 25%. It's $0.20 /share/quarter right now (IIRC), down from $0.35/share/quarter. Last I checked, it went to $0.10 or $0.15 per share per quarter around 2009.

Edit: OMFGBBQ!!!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tsx...as-oil-slumps-to-new-multiyear-lows-1.2864101

http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/12/08/tsx_plunges_292_points_as_oil_prices_retreat.html#

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-energy-stocks-dive-further/article21989804/

If you're not Canadian, that's the 3 biggest papers/news sites in the country. Now why isn't the dollar crashing more relative to the US of A...
 
Last edited:
Imp said:
FML... totally would if it weren't for the 30 day wash trade rules. Any-time rebound = not going to bother. And half my losses are in a non-taxable account.
Click to expand...

huh? why wouldn't u do it for your taxable acct?
 
JEDI said:
huh? why wouldn't u do it for your taxable acct?
Click to expand...

Just in case it goes up in the month I'm not holding it! I already fail trying to time market, may as well sit it through.

Edit: Eff it. Outlook is so shitty that I may as well sell it for the loss if it isn't going anywhere in a few weeks.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

Back
Top