***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

I'm placing bets that it will. The market is still ridiculously volatile. Until it loses that volatility... it isn't done with the losses.

Probably, which is why my sensible side is continuing to average in.

 

[BoT]

um.. EGLE emerged from bankruptcy today with 80% ($1B) less debt.

since it was bankruptcy, shouldn't all old shares be worth $0?
so all old shareholders didn't make any $ from the .60 to $15 jump today?

correct but if i would have seen this on time i could have jumped in and buy at $5 or maybe even lower and double or triple within 4 hours
p.s. i jump in netflix after the mark cuban story hit with a small budget. was able to hit it @ $352

 

[Imp]

That's not good. Just found out my broker lets my NON-margin account go into a negative cash balance -- they made some changes recently and I swear to god that they used to warn me if there was insufficient cash. Warning works on one account, not the other... Accidentally bought in one account when I wanted to in another (was a last 10 minutes before closing rushed trade), forced me to sell something else at break-even to keep the account positive.

 

[flunky nassau]

Oh the pain. But on the bright side, if you wanted to start a position in Googl, United Technologies or Spirit Airlines...

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

That's not good. Just found out my broker lets my NON-margin account go into a negative cash balance -- they made some changes recently and I swear to god that they used to warn me if there was insufficient cash. Warning works on one account, not the other... Accidentally bought in one account when I wanted to in another (was a last 10 minutes before closing rushed trade), forced me to sell something else at break-even to keep the account positive.

What are you doing that put you into a margin situation.

Oh .... management fees for the car dealers? Pro-tip: Ever go to a car dealer and know more than the saleman? Ya .... brokers are no different.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

RE: Cuban ...

Don't know how he made his money. I don't care. He seems like a fool so My interest in knowing his background stopped there.

Ya, NFLX has no moat and I quite frankly have Netflix service and I can't be the only one that has seen a degradation in the frequency of new "top" movies in streaming. I'm about ready to drop it and while I don't know much about Amazon Prime it is under my consideration. Actually, I keep telling my wife that we should do mail delivery of Blu Rays or DVDs per subscription somewhere. Then we watch movies "with purpose" instead of chasing instant gratification all the time.

Tell me what Netflix's moat is that I don't see and I'll change my mind. Prove to me that it somehow HAS to be part of a duopoly with maybe several small players and I'm in.

Off Topic:
I'll tell you that the smartphone market is comprised of a 30% chunk that is professionals using them for business. And there are two companies in a duopoly fighting for the consumer segment (70%) and one that hopes to be a consumer/professional solution and another that is purely after the professional market. I am investing in the pro market granted the pro/consumer targetting company could win the pro market and with 30% market share kids will be getting their parents old phones (hint: not iOS or Android)

ya ... sounds crazy. I remember a story about an investor at work that did software. He was using these new fangled databases. Two were the "popular ones" at the time and netiher was Oracle. He told me he invested in one and lost his ass. He never thought to think that both DBs were running on a MSFT operating system. Point is, the winners of today are not the winners of tommorrow. And with tech this evolution is a much shorter time frame than what hte popular breakfast cereals are. Granted older people will probably eat oatmeal 100 years from now.

I hate to say it but there is a big problem wit hkids these days growing up with instant gratification. I think there is a whole segment of parents out there that would happily buy a tech product that fights this. You can only watch Netflix streaming movies if you request them 24 hours in advance. Taht type of thing.

 

[BoT]

1. Netflix has sign with disney to provide content for the next few years. some of it exclusively. i know might not sound like much. your kids will enjoy it. also remember that disney owns miramax, touchstone, part of a&e, lucas films, marvel, pixar, etc
2. Netflix as a content creator, house of cards and orange is the new black were fair successes considering the platform. more content is coming and more producers are liking the concept. primarily because there is little direction from netflix about the content.
3. netflix just expanded to 2 or 3 new countries to provide service.
4. Netflix is the cheapest in the business. price does matter.
5. Netflix is superior in service integration. there is not much you will find out there without netflix pre-installed.

 

[JEDI]

good time to buy Russia index (RSX)?

it hit its 52wk low in march and hit it again this past thurs.
seems to be rebounding as oil prices go up?

candlesticks say double valley? time to buy?

 

[FelixDeCat]

correction not over, keep selling

 

[brianmanahan]

correction not over, keep selling

sell stuff now... because you'll get less money for it?

 

[Michael]

In theory, if you think the correction is not over, you can either short some stocks or sell existing holdings and buy them back cheaper later.

Michael

 

[Mermaidman]

:hmm: Hmm, wondering if IBM is a good buy 'n hold stock. Nice dividend.

What say the expert$ here?

 

[Kwatt]

:hmm: Hmm, wondering if IBM is a good buy 'n hold stock. Nice dividend.

What say the expert$ here?

I am NOT an Expert.

I am uncomfortable with a company that has been rasing EPS via buybacks financed by issuing debt.

It may work for them I can not say. Keeping up with the Joneses with a credit card troubles me.

Just my point of view. And it maybe the best way ever for them. But, I'm staying out.

.

 

[Michael]

I think that iBM will wander in the wilderness for a while. They are selling off or closing all their businesses that they used to have a technology lead in and are becoming yet another services and consulting company.

Michael

 

[Mermaidman]

Thanks. I need to stop the habit of catching falling knives while I still have a few fingers.

Hey AAPL earnings after today's close! Does its current price already factor in record sales?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I think that iBM will wander in the wilderness for a while. They are selling off or closing all their businesses that they used to have a technology lead in and are becoming yet another services and consulting company.

Michael

Regarding IBM ..... read the rational as to why Buffett and Berkshire bought in a few years ago. It's interesting rational.

 

[Scarpozzi]

good time to buy Russia index (RSX)?

it hit its 52wk low in march and hit it again this past thurs.
seems to be rebounding as oil prices go up?

candlesticks say double valley? time to buy?

Corruption and all that over there is too risky if you ask me when paired with trade sanctions. RSX volatility index and historical returns look too far out of whack to jump on it. There are better short term investments with lower risk that may pay out better returns. It's all speculation. I'm not an expert...I just prefer watching the daily climate and using leveraged funds to shoot for weekly/biweekly returns and compound them.

 

[Imp]

Eff me in the A. That stock I sold to cover my accidental margin on Friday went up 3% today. F. F. F.

 

[Hugo Drax]

I think that iBM will wander in the wilderness for a while. They are selling off or closing all their businesses that they used to have a technology lead in and are becoming yet another services and consulting company.

Michael

consulting is almost 90% profit.

Send fresh college students making 28 bucks an hour to site, charge site 350 an hour for consulting.

profit.

 

[KB]

good time to buy Russia index (RSX)?

it hit its 52wk low in march and hit it again this past thurs.
seems to be rebounding as oil prices go up?

candlesticks say double valley? time to buy?

At one time I mentioned that RSX was cheap and might but an interesting buy, but now I am not so sure. I don't think I can stomach something that volatile. Russia is run by Putin, a bit of a lose cannon, and the US and partners just can't wait to punish the Russian economy to make him lose face. If Russia can get more partnerships in Asia, where the US has less influence, then I would again consider RSX.

 

[Michael]

Hugo Drax - It also is highly competitive with little to no barriers to entry and IBM is having less and less of their own products to install that they are experts on.

Their numbers are looking worse as they shift that focus. Done right, it can be good, but can the growth support high enough valuation metrics?

Michael

 

[JEDI]

Trying to sell and buy back... I tried do ONLY do that for over a year. Long story short, I cashed out 5-10% gains and missed out more than a few 100% to 200% gains -- I'm looking at you VISA, AAPL, and GOOG.

We need crystal balls.

wow.. today has been one hell of a day.
thank god I dollar cost avg'd.

my original plan was buy at $x, sell at X * .9, buy at X*.9*.9, sell at x*.9*.9*.9, buy at x*.9*.9*.9*.9, etc

basically sell when it drops 10%, rebuy when it drops another 10%, rinse/repeat.

I would have been out $20k if I did that. after the 3rd time I sold, I would not have been able to execute the buy because the stock took off like a rocket.

instead I bought everytime it dropped 10%.
I'm still down a little, but will breakeven when it goes up another 10%.

 

[sm625]

1920 is obviously a very important fib and I'm sure a LOT of traders are betting on a downward bounce off it. But the premium on the puts is way too high. So we're probably looking at 1944 in short order.

 

[Imp]

Markets going up, my crap is starting to lose less money. Yay... Too bad I lost my nerve when it bottomed out -- should have shoved everything en masse instead of averaging.

 

[sm625]

Well this is it. The 61.8% retracement level is just under 1944. This is where I recommend to anyone who is worried about the market get the hell out. Seriously. It is extremely rare for a market to have a sharp snapback rally that exceeds the 62% retracement level. We are almost certain to test the low 1800s again in the coming weeks. Big rallies do not start from the pattern we are in right now.