Official 2014 Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[glenn1]

I was proposed this trade. I am weak on WR, he is weak on RB. THoughts?

His
Alshon Jeffery (Chi WR) + Lamar Miller (Mia RB) + Terrance Williams (Dal WR)

for

My
Matt Forte (Chi RB) + Kelvin Benjamin (Car WR) + Heath Miller (Pit TE) or Jordan Cameron (Cle TE)

No. Dude, Jordy and Kelvin Benjamin isn't a 'weak' WR1-2 combo, Miles Austin is a very capable backup, and Cordarelle Patterson may still turn it around this year with Bridgewater slinging him the rock. If anything you have the whip hand with the other owner because Jimmy Graham is hurt. I'd offer him Cameron and Patterson for Hopkins and see if he bites. If not, offer him one of your TEs for his Mike Wallace and feel comfortable penciling in 10 points/week in the bench WR column.

 

[SP33Demon]

Going to be a rough week for me in my league at work, I am dropping both Monte Ball and Zach Ertz.

Yeah Ertz has been a bit disappointing so far. I knew St.L would shut him down like most other TE's this week, so I started ASJ instead who also did jack and shit. Also started Jordan Cameron in another league who did jack and shit. At this point I may pick up Owen Daniels, at least he's usually good for 50 yards + RZ threat on a team that is offensively doing well.

Montee Ball, I don't blame you. Turns out Moreno didn't get enough credit last year, many analysts claimed it was the system and Manning. Turns out it wasn't, and I didn't touch Ball in the draft as a result. He just isn't as tough to tackle as Moreno.

 

[Aharami]

Something seems weird in your scoring - why is Hester #16 in WR PRK? Do you get return yardage? If so, you need to get him and don't do this trade. Honestly, I feel like the trade is better for him than it is for you.

i am last in the waiver wire. so I most likely wont get him. I am about the propose Pierre Thomas for Alshon Jeffery. Fair trade?

 

[vi edit]

I was never high on Ball. He came with the brand name hype of being in the Denver Offense. But that's it. He never looked elusive. Never seemed like a fast guy. Couldn't catch well. And he didn't strike me as a patient back that would wait for a play to develop.


He's just a strong downhill runner that could punch through a few yards. Basically a slightly quicker Trent Richardson. Denver has very few short goal yard plays. You can probably count on one hand the number of plays they've run within 2 yards of the goal line this year. They are so good on converting from the 5-15 yard range with Julius Thomas they just don't end up in goal line situations.

 

[SP33Demon]

No. Dude, Jordy and Kelvin Benjamin isn't a 'weak' WR1-2 combo, Miles Austin is a very capable backup, and Cordarelle Patterson may still turn it around this year with Bridgewater slinging him the rock. If anything you have the whip hand with the other owner because Jimmy Graham is hurt. I'd offer him Cameron and Patterson for Hopkins and see if he bites. If not, offer him one of your TEs for his Mike Wallace and feel comfortable penciling in 10 points/week in the bench WR column.

Yeah I wouldn't do it. Benjamin is now ranked by a well respected analyst in top 10 WRs (#10) so far (and rest of season) and he's almost matchup proof due to his catch radius - e.g. mathematically can dunk on 11 ft rim with measureables. He's a high end WR2 only because of rookie mistakes (drops, fumble this week), otherwise he would be a WR1. Forte is rushing behind the #1 graded Run D so far (only RT Jordan Mills has been bad on the year). Alshon Jeffrey, I'd put very close with Benjamin but slightly below. Lamar Miller has been doing well but Moreno is coming back soon to put a damper on his production.

Looking at their VBD so far:
Forte vs Miller, Forte +1.25ppg (4.4ppg-3.15ppg)
Benj vs Jeffery, Benj +.46ppg (2.34ppg-1.88ppg)

So you're giving up 1.75~ppg above a baseline player at their position based on what they've done so far in 5 games. And I'd expect that gap to widen as Moreno and B.Marshall get more healthy.

 

[Aharami]

ended up offering Pierre Thomas + Jordan Cameron for Alshon Jeffery or Pierre Thomas for DeAndre. lets see what he says

 

[Aharami]

No. Dude, Jordy and Kelvin Benjamin isn't a 'weak' WR1-2 combo, Miles Austin is a very capable backup, and Cordarelle Patterson may still turn it around this year with Bridgewater slinging him the rock. If anything you have the whip hand with the other owner because Jimmy Graham is hurt. I'd offer him Cameron and Patterson for Hopkins and see if he bites. If not, offer him one of your TEs for his Mike Wallace and feel comfortable penciling in 10 points/week in the bench WR column.

Yeah I wouldn't do it. Benjamin is now ranked by a well respected analyst in top 10 WRs (#10) so far (and rest of season) and he's almost matchup proof due to his catch radius - e.g. mathematically can dunk on 11 ft rim with measureables. He's a high end WR2 only because of rookie mistakes (drops, fumble this week), otherwise he would be a WR1. Forte is rushing behind the #1 graded Run D so far (only RT Jordan Mills has been bad on the year). Alshon Jeffrey, I'd put very close with Benjamin but slightly below. Lamar Miller has been doing well but Moreno is coming back soon to put a damper on his production.

Looking at their VBD so far:
Forte vs Miller, Forte +1.25ppg (4.4ppg-3.15ppg)
Benj vs Jeffery, Benj +.46ppg (2.34ppg-1.88ppg)

So you're giving up 1.75~ppg above a baseline player at their position based on what they've done so far in 5 games.

Thanks for the analysis. I was checking online trade analyzers, and what you guys said just confirmed what I was thinking. Thanks

 

[SP33Demon]

i am last in the waiver wire. so I most likely wont get him. I am about the propose Pierre Thomas for Alshon Jeffery. Fair trade?

Standard scoring through 5 weeks you're looking at a +.80ppg advantage for Jeffery based on past 2014 performance. And that's after including PT's breakout week from yesterday; those who watch every week know that this is a WR1 for a Flex RB. You might be able to pull it off if your Mark is hurting on RBs, an idiot, or overvalues the fact that when Marshall is healthy it will slightly diminish AJ's points (which you will mention to him). Or all of the above. Go for it, but most FF pro's would not give up a WR1 in a high powered offense for a Flex RB in a high powered offense.

Edit: I see you added Cameron to the mix. That is more fair, although Cameron hasn't done shit this year but has upside b/c he's healthier than before. Hopkins has done a smidge more than Jeffery this year but his volume is much smaller, so I wouldn't even go after him unless you're really hurting in the WR department. Andre Johnson is going to continue to get more targets as the money man and his QB is probably quite aware that he hasn't scored a TD on the year.

 

[digiram]

F me, I was soo pissed at the Saints not using an ounce of Pierre Thomas last week, I dropped him. Someone else in the league grabbed and started him. At least they didn''t play against me.

 

[digiram]

Also, I drafted K. Benjamin and he has been scoring nonstop in my bench (haven't needed him as i'm now 4-1), but I finally decided to start him and he does nada in a game where the Panthers score 34 pts. SMH.

 

[MetalMat]

Yeah Ertz has been a bit disappointing so far. I knew St.L would shut him down like most other TE's this week, so I started ASJ instead who also did jack and shit. Also started Jordan Cameron in another league who did jack and shit. At this point I may pick up Owen Daniels, at least he's usually good for 50 yards + RZ threat on a team that is offensively doing well.

Montee Ball, I don't blame you. Turns out Moreno didn't get enough credit last year, many analysts claimed it was the system and Manning. Turns out it wasn't, and I didn't touch Ball in the draft as a result. He just isn't as tough to tackle as Moreno.

I was not buying all the hype the "experts" were harping on during the offseason on him. Luckily this was the only league I drafted Ball in and that is only because he dropped to the late 3rd round. I have not seen anything out of Ball that warrants him taking up bench space for 5+ weeks, what a bust.

Ertz has been such a disappointment, he turned into the 2013 version of Jared Cook. You'd figure he would be at least a low end top 10 TE with all the points Philly has been putting up but it is just not happening this season. Hopefully Jordan Reed can step up and not get injured..... Eric Ebron is available.......

 

[SP33Demon]

I was not buying all the hype the "experts" were harping on during the offseason on him. Luckily this was the only league I drafted Ball in and that is only because he dropped to the late 3rd round. I have not seen anything out of Ball that warrants him taking up bench space for 5+ weeks, what a bust.

Ertz has been such a disappointment, he turned into the 2013 version of Jared Cook. You'd figure he would be at least a low end top 10 TE with all the points Philly has been putting up but it is just not happening this season. Hopefully Jordan Reed can step up and not get injured..... Eric Ebron is available.......

Ebron, yes he is emerging. I'll have to do some research on him tomorrow. I will ditch Ertz in both leagues, Philly's Pass Blocking is now bottom third and Foles is looking like he's just chucking it up there. That in combination with his dead last Accuracy % and I may try to move him - was hoping for a turnaround yesterday but it wasn't there. He may return to 2013 excellence but it won't be before week 10 when Mathis/Kelce will return to solidify that OL. That means enduring 3 more games of this awfulness. ugh.

 

[MetalMat]

Ebron, yes he is emerging. I'll have to do some research on him tomorrow. I may ditch Ertz in both leagues, Philly's Pass Blocking is now bottom third and Foles is looking like he's just chucking it up there. That in combination with his dead last Accuracy % and I'm going to try to move him - was hoping for a turnaround yesterday but it wasn't there. He may return to 2013 excellence but it won't be before weeks 10-12 when Mathis/Kelce will return to solidify that OL.

Ebron will be a hot pickup off the WW this week, with Calvin Johnson out his stock is going nowhere but up.

 

[tHa ShIzNiT]

Also, I drafted K. Benjamin and he has been scoring nonstop in my bench (haven't needed him as i'm now 4-1), but I finally decided to start him and he does nada in a game where the Panthers score 34 pts. SMH.

Same here. Kelvin - 3 catches on 11 targets, with a lost fumble thrown in for good measure. Thats what happens when I finally start him. Still consider him a good option, but he has tons of dropped passes already. Wouldn't be surprised if he leads the league.

 

[KeithTalent]

Blah, finally bench Brady for Alex Smith in my 2QB league and now it is going to cost me the win. Really needed that extra 6.5 points. :\

KT

 

[glenn1]

Blah, finally bench Brady for Alex Smith in my 2QB league and now it is going to cost me the win. Really needed that extra 6.5 points. :\

KT

Know it doesn't help but I definitely would have done the same thing. I actually think Brady is going to be mediocre for most the year with a couple odd outbursts like this but otherwise unstartable.

 

[dougp]

Know it doesn't help but I definitely would have done the same thing. I actually think Brady is going to be mediocre for most the year with a couple odd outbursts like this but otherwise unstartable.

I agree about this week, but I disagree with your second statement. They tore up the Bengals who have been pretty damn good.

 

[KeithTalent]

Know it doesn't help but I definitely would have done the same thing. I actually think Brady is going to be mediocre for most the year with a couple odd outbursts like this but otherwise unstartable.

I agree about this week, but I disagree with your second statement. They tore up the Bengals who have been pretty damn good.

Yeah, I was concerned about him going against the Bengals, so that, coupled with his recent suckitude led me to bench him. I did not see any of the game, did the offense finally look decent last night, or was it a bit of a fluke?

KT

 

[dougp]

Yeah, I was concerned about him going against the Bengals, so that, coupled with his recent suckitude led me to bench him. I did not see any of the game, did the offense finally look decent last night, or was it a bit of a fluke?

KT

I thought they looked pretty damn good, but I only watched the first half because I wanted to watch Boardwalk Empire.

 

[glenn1]

Yeah, I was concerned about him going against the Bengals, so that, coupled with his recent suckitude led me to bench him. I did not see any of the game, did the offense finally look decent last night, or was it a bit of a fluke?

KT

To my untrained eye it looked more like the Bengals were completely befuddled on both offense and defense. They were leaving a lot of easy throws for Brady right over the middle in the 7-10 yard range that he was repeatedly exploiting. His throws to the outside and deep didn't look that great to me.

For full disclosure, I don't own Brady shares in any league but have long thought he's among the greatest real-life QBs ever. With a great OL and receivers his age would be a lesser factor and he could likely maintain top 5 QB ranking but he has neither. Combine those factors with a lessened ability to throw the deep ball or sideline outside shoulder throws with zip and accuracy, IMHO I think he'll struggle to even be in the top 12 this year and may not even be top 15.

 

[slayer202]

if they keep the run game going and gronk near full strength, it will help, but brady has still been quite awful from what I've read. doesn't sound like he's happy, so maybe that's playing into it.

 

[dougp]

To my untrained eye it looked more like the Bengals were completely befuddled on both offense and defense. They were leaving a lot of easy throws for Brady right over the middle in the 7-10 yard range that he was repeatedly exploiting. His throws to the outside and deep didn't look that great to me.

For full disclosure, I don't own Brady shares in any league but have long thought he's among the greatest real-life QBs ever. With a great OL and receivers his age would be a lesser factor and he could likely maintain top 5 QB ranking but he has neither. Combine those factors with a lessened ability to throw the deep ball or sideline outside shoulder throws with zip and accuracy, IMHO I think he'll struggle to even be in the top 12 this year and may not even be top 15.

The Patriots went with a lot of two-TE sets last night, which is something they haven't done because they wanted to reduce Gronk's workload. Two-TE sets create such a mismatch, because you either require the safety's to cheat and rely on man coverage on receivers or you have to not blitz, leaving you vulnerable to the run. Why we haven't seen this more in the league, I have no idea, but it's what really helped them yesterday.

 

[KeithTalent]

Good stuff, thanks guys. I did watch some of his earlier games, but I really only saw a very small amount of football in recent weeks so could not see how he looked now. In the first two games I watched slayer, he definitely did look awful, I was just hoping as The Gonk got more snaps, the offense overall would get better. Hoping this is a sign of things to come and not just a one week anomaly.

KT

 

[glenn1]

if they keep the run game going and gronk near full strength, it will help, but brady has still been quite awful from what I've read. doesn't sound like he's happy, so maybe that's playing into it.

His unhappiness seems to be more a function of how well/poorly he and the team are performing. You pointed out the 2 keys - Ridley having good run game to open play-action passing, and short-intermediate throws to Edelman, Gronk, and Wright. No shame in Brady adopting Alex Smith's game of shorter but smarter throws since Brady only has a 31% completion rate (last in the NFL) for passes over 10 yards. If you want a guy who can sling it way deep for bombs Brady ain't your guy though, and you'll need to get someone like Cutler, Ryan, or Stafford for that.

 

[KeithTalent]

His unhappiness seems to be more a function of how well/poorly he and the team are performing. You pointed out the 2 keys - Ridley having good run game to open play-action passing, and short-intermediate throws to Edelman, Gronk, and Wright. No shame in Brady adopting Alex Smith's game of shorter but smarter throws since Brady only has a 31% completion rate (last in the NFL) for passes over 10 yards. If you want a guy who can sling it way deep for bombs Brady ain't your guy though, and you'll need to get someone like Cutler, Ryan, or Stafford for that.

No doubt. His deep throws have looked terrible this year and part of last year too.

KT