MetalMat
Diamond Member
- Jun 14, 2004
- 9,687
- 36
- 91
Yeah I know. I guess the Ravens are the sexy underdog pick because of their past playoff games against the Patriots. The Patriots have been steamrolling opponents at home and I doubt that changes.
Yeah I know. I guess the Ravens are the sexy underdog pick because of their past playoff games against the Patriots. The Patriots have been steamrolling opponents at home and I doubt that changes.
Conscript
Golden Member
- Mar 19, 2001
- 1,751
- 2
- 81
Really? You mean the Lions team that those "atrocious" Panther's humiliated earlier this year?
Seattle's vaunted secondary really not going to have much an effect on a team that's bread an butter is the run game and has been the top rushing team over the last half of the season. It's really going to come down to Carolina's D. If they play like they have been playing, upset city baby.
dainthomas
Lifer
- Dec 7, 2004
- 14,632
- 3,504
- 136
I'm sure other teams have tried to run against Seattle, but it apparently hasn't worked out very well. Their D can stop more than just the pass.
I will give them a chance. They would be my pick actually. Rodgers is gimpy. Last week showed even when "healed" that calf injury is anything but and can flare up ANY TIME. I think losing Melton hurts your D Line but if you can get pressure on Rodgers I think they fold and you walk away a winner. In fact I think that is what happens.
Of course Rodgers could play lights out and NOT get hurt. Your defense, which is suspect, could get steamrolled by Lacy. Rodgers could have all day. This could be like that 48-45 Bronco-Cowboy game from 2013. Dallas could be so spent and beat up from the Detroit line that they don't have what it takes to go on the road, in the cold, and beat a rested Packer team at home. All kinds of things could go wrong for Dallas.
But I would like my chances if I were Dallas. Pound the rock with Murray. Let that young O Line redeem themselves against a suspect GB defense. Exploit the matchup problems Dez creates. Romo is a good QB--he may not be able to single handedly will a team to a Super Bowl (but it doesn't look like Manning or even Brady have much success in the playoffs with below average defenses so I think Romo takes too much blame imo) but he is good, he can kill a defense, and if the team plays well he can pick his spots and put the game out of reach. Of course he could romo or worse romo all over but the 2014 version of Dallas and Romo is respectable, physical, and deserves some respect.
Now your defense has to hold. Most of us are cynical of Dallas because that defense is not very good. People forget the last couple years the Dallas O has been very good; the defense is what has held you back. This year they broke in a few games but when your O played well the D came to play.
Seattle's corners actually tackle making outside runs more difficult. And no need to comment on the contribution of Earl and Kam--they are great safeties against the run. Heck, Kam sits in the middle of the field as a quasi-4th backer half the game when Seattle runs 3 deep.
As for the best run team over the last half of the season I had to look at those stats. Carolina is an OK run team but I had not heard them proclaimed the best the last 8 games. Ran the numbers... not even close. Seattle has nearly 300 more yards than Carolina the last 8 games.
CAROLINA LAST 8
109 OCT 30 New Orleans
102 Nov 10 @Philadelphia
106 Nov 16 Atlanta
178 Nov 30 @Minnesota
271 Dec 7 @New Orleans
121 Dec 14 Tampa Bay
209 Dec 21 Cleveland
194 Dec 28 @Atlanta
TOTAL: 1,290
SEATTLE LAST 8
350 Nov 9 N.Y. Giants
204 Nov 16 @Kansas City
124 Nov 23 Arizona
157 Nov 27 @San Francisco
188 Dec 7 @Philadelphia
152 Dec 14 San Francisco
267 Dec 21 @Arizona
132 Dec 28 St. Louis
Total: 1,574
Looking at the season metrics Seattle blows Carolina, and everyone else, away in running.
Code:
CAROLINA VS SEATTLE
(Rank)(Stat)(Category)(Rank)(Stat)
17 -6.0% DVOA 1 +29.9
7 127.2 Yards 1 172.6
8 29.6 Att/g 2 32.8
13 4.3 Avg 1 5.3
21 10 TD 1 20
3 117 1st 1 144
7 24.7 1st% 1 27.4
20 7 20+ 3 19
21 1 40+ 1 6Ranked # 1 in 7 of the 9 above major rushing categories and 2 and 3 in the other two.
I am telling you, people are sleeping on Seattle's offense. First it is the claims their offense is bad. Next it is an average rushing team is better than Seattle's elite rush attack which ranks among the best ever. Crazy talk people!
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Imported
Lifer
- Sep 2, 2000
- 14,679
- 23
- 81
It's gonna be a decade of sorrow for us with Jed in charge. Baalke has had some terrible draft picks in the recent years that has probably set us back a bit when it comes to depth. With his trend of drafting injured players of late, it looks like it'll continue for a while. Totally looking at you Gurley and Ifo. The guy can't draft a WR to save his soul either.. although I got a kick out of a local media guy asking him about OBJesus and what it would have taken to get him.
Anyways, good luck to you guys. Iron sharpens iron so hopefully we're back in the thick of things sooner rather than later.
My Packers season ticket holding fiancée has done enough to make me root for them to win it all this year.
Conscript
Golden Member
- Mar 19, 2001
- 1,751
- 2
- 81
Sorry, I misquoted the stat, it was since Thanksgiving they've been the top rushing team in the NFL. They mentioned it during the game wild card game. Not to mention how they ran all over Arizona, which supposedly had a great run D (can't blame Lindley for that)
Anyway, no one taking Seattle lightly, they're the Vegas favorite to win the SB for a reason. But I think it's going to be a much better game than most are predicting
bshole
Diamond Member
- Mar 12, 2013
- 8,315
- 1,215
- 126
WHAT??!?! The waiting line for Packer season tickets is over 100,000 and you guys don't even live in Wisconsin. I am SO sick of the way the Packers do this. I will never ever ever get my hands on season tickets. Most infuriating is the way season ticket holders sell the tickets for more than 5 times face value, raping the average Packer schlup who was born into the wrong family. Just plain wrong.
Conscript, here are my picks
Seattle 28 Carolina 3
Packers 45 Cowboys 14
By the way, the NFL has apologized to Detroit for the incompetent/biased officiating in the game. That is indeed a RARE event.
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/...cowboys-missed-hold-apology-blown-call-010615
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zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,095
- 30,038
- 146
lupi
Lifer
- Apr 8, 2001
- 32,539
- 260
- 126
glenn1
Lifer
- Sep 6, 2000
- 25,383
- 1,013
- 126
Looks like the line has actually moved the other way to +10.5; must be lots of money coming in on the Pathers and the under (39.5).
Lol, this thread. Glad the butthurt Detroit fans exist. They just make the Cowboys victory so much more sweet!
Have a friend going to the GB game, though he is a Packers fan. Can't wait to laugh at him for spending 4 hours in the frozen tundra just to watch the Packers lose.
My picks:
Dallas
Panthers with the upset
NE
and Denver to round it out.
Have a friend going to the GB game, though he is a Packers fan. Can't wait to laugh at him for spending 4 hours in the frozen tundra just to watch the Packers lose.
My picks:
Dallas
Panthers with the upset
NE
and Denver to round it out.
- Oct 28, 1999
- 62,480
- 8,340
- 126
Panther upset, eh? I like it. Carolina is weird team. Outside of Cam Newton it's a bunch of nobodies and cobbled together parts. Yet that defense can step up and put a hurt on you. Kuechly is making a name for himself and turning out to be a brilliant player at that position. JJ Watt gets so much credit for MVP...but watch this kid play. Incredible football IQ and intuition on plays.
Offense wise I'm amazed at Stewart and the run game. When they commit to a 3 down back, Carolina runs the ball well. Throw in the threat of Newton keeping the ball and putting in another 100 yards of rushing...they can be a handful.
Are they as good as Seattle? No. But they are playing with house money at this point and have nothing to lose. They get to play the role of superbowl crashers
It's going to be an UGLY game. Will be interesting to see if they can contain Wilson.
Offense wise I'm amazed at Stewart and the run game. When they commit to a 3 down back, Carolina runs the ball well. Throw in the threat of Newton keeping the ball and putting in another 100 yards of rushing...they can be a handful.
Are they as good as Seattle? No. But they are playing with house money at this point and have nothing to lose. They get to play the role of superbowl crashers
It's going to be an UGLY game. Will be interesting to see if they can contain Wilson.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
- 34,543
- 651
- 126
Panther upset, eh? I like it. Carolina is weird team. Outside of Cam Newton it's a bunch of nobodies and cobbled together parts. Yet that defense can step up and put a hurt on you. Kuechly is making a name for himself and turning out to be a brilliant player at that position. JJ Watt gets so much credit for MVP...but watch this kid play. Incredible football IQ and intuition on plays.
Offense wise I'm amazed at Stewart and the run game. When they commit to a 3 down back, Carolina runs the ball well. Throw in the threat of Newton keeping the ball and putting in another 100 yards of rushing...they can be a handful.
Are they as good as Seattle? No. But they are playing with house money at this point and have nothing to lose. They get to play the role of superbowl crashers
I think both defenses can keep the game close and the game could be decided off of a turnover.
It's all good, just had to call that out
Carolina has been banged up this year and looking back at the October matchup the injury report noted that the following were out: running backs DeAngelo Williams and Fozzy Whittaker, receiver Philly Brown, guards Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner, linebacker Chase Blackburn and cornerback Bene Benwikere. So Seattle is healthier but so is Carolina. RE: Arizona. That was the same Arizona team Seattle dropped 267 rushing yards on a few weeks back.It will be interesting to see how the matchup plays out. Stats tell you only so much as the individual matchups and gameflow matter most. That said looking at the last 8 games Carolina faced the weakest run defenses in the league whereas Seattle is ranked #2. Not saying Carolina cannot run on Seattle
Carolina last 8 opponents Defensive Rush DVOA: Tampa (8), Minnesota (26), Cleveland (31), Atlanta (30, 2x), New Orleans (32)
Seattle last 8 opponents Defensive Rush DVOA: Rams (4), Philly (6), Arizona (7, 2x), Santa Clara (10, 2x)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Yet Carolina has played tough against the Seattle run attack AND bottled Wilson up pretty well. And the good news for Carolina is Seattle softer up the middle with Mebane and now Hill both out for the season at D Tackle.
Seattle v. Carolina (yards, avg)
2012: 98 (2.8), 82 (4.3)
2013: 71 (2.7), 134 (5.2)
2014: 119 (4.6), 114 (3.7)
The Wilson v Newton stats are also interesting. Cam has REALLY struggled against the LOB. That is probably the biggest "red mark" for Carolina. Cam must improve on his past performances against Seattle which have been frankly BAD. And he needs to drastically improve on the road, in the elements, at the CLink in a playoff atmosphere.
2012: 212 (19-25, 7.9, 1TD, 2INT), 108 (12-39, 3.3, 1TD, 0INT)
2013: 300 (25-33, 8.6, 1TD, 0INT), 119 (16-23, 5.0, 1TD, 0INT)
2014: 191 (20-32, 5.8, 1TD, 1INT), 152 (12-22, 6.1, 0TD, 1INT)
Honestly, on paper Carolina doesn't scare me. But come gametime they are a very physical team with no quit in them. They also have the, "No one believes in us!" factor. Compounded by the, "The world is out to get us--our QB almost died in a car wreck. Someone tried to burn our coaches home to the ground and kill his family. But we still here! And we here to fight to the end!" Most Seattle fans like Carolina and their fans--the team plays clean and the fans are really good. And the people I know feel bad for the events that have transpired. I just hope it isn't a rallying point for one of the biggest upsets in playoff history.
- Nov 30, 2005
- 50,231
- 117
- 116
Carolina's D seems way overrated to me, based on a bunch of wins against crappy opponents at the end of the year. I think Lynch/Wilson will eat them alive.
KT
- Nov 30, 2005
- 50,231
- 117
- 116
Kind of surprising on the line. I expect it to go back up to around 11 by game time.
KT
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,095
- 30,038
- 146
They are not unlike Houston--it's one dude (Kuechly) in a sea of goobers.
Kuechly is a beast, though: led the league in tackles 2 years going.
Imported
Lifer
- Sep 2, 2000
- 14,679
- 23
- 81
She's from Milwaukee. Her parents had tickets and they were handed down. She's on the MKE package (Gold I think) so she gets three games, one preseason and two regular. She normally goes back for all three and I'll go back for the November game usually.. though this year they were traded for tickets to the Patriots game.
That is the direction I am going. Carolina cannot pass on Seattle. Carolina has had a time rushing against Seattle and Carolina's recent improvement on the ground coincided with facing teams ranked (DVOA) # 30 (twice), # 31, and # 32. 4 games against the 3 worst rush defenses. Seattle is ranked # 2 in rush DVOA and very good in traditional metrics (low ypc and yards/game). Carolina will have a hard time running against Seattle. And Newton has never done well against the LOB. On the flip side Seattle's defense is on fire.
The change of venue (from too hot to cold, wet, windy) is a big factor that favors Seattle. I don't think Carolina will react well in the CLink (first time for most of their players) and it is a night game where Carroll is something stupid good like 13-1 and there is a scientific reason for this. It is well known that East coast teams eat West coast teams alive when the West travels and plays the 10am PST games. What is less known is that East coasts team traveling West playing prime time are at a big disadvantage. Oh, CAR @ SEA is a 5pm PST game. Factor in Seattle's bye week and getting Unger back I don't see this ending well for Carolina.
Carolina is a chick upset and a lot of people are citing how close the past 3 games have been and ignoring the difference between Seattle playing in hot Carolina vs. Carolina traveling to the CLink for a night game. Panthers could win. But Seattle is the better team. Carolina won 7 games all season; Seattle won 5 against playoff teams alone and won 7 at home. Much better chance Seattle blows the wheels off the Panther bus IMO. That said unless Carolina does some stupid stuff and gets down early I think the game is close the first 40 minutes and then the wheels come off. That is how the Rams-Niners-Arizona-Philly games played out. Even when Seattle wins by 10 it usually takes half time before the punishment sets in.
Our D has gotten a chance because we've had such a good O-line and time of possession in our favor all season. Also a bunch of young guys and nobodies who realized this was their time to make or break. It'll be a good game no matter what.
And our D has never been able to get any pressure this season...it's ridiculous really. Not sure how they've managed to get into the playoffs without that pass rush presence. This is where we miss Ware the most.
The NFL couldn't figure out a way to get the Cowboys, 8-8 in the past 3 seasons and a win away each December to make the playoffs, to unf*ck themselves into the playoffs, and suddenly it's a conspiracy that they want the Boys to go into the next round? LOL. That makes total sense.
It's been hilarious railing all the Lions fans calling BS. Bad calls happen all the time. Neither call would have guaranteed a Lions win. They score 3 points all of the 2nd half and allow the Cowboys to score 17 and suddenly, it's a fix? They lost the game, period.
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