**Official 2014-15 NFL Divisional Round Series** Big-D Bowl At Lambeau!!

[dainthomas]

Going with: Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, Green Bay.

Of course a Niners fan would pick the Panthers. :biggrin:

 

[Mermaidman]

I don't make bets, but Panthers +11 sure looks tempting!

 

[Imported]

Of course a Niners fan would pick the Panthers. :biggrin:

Hatred runs deep.

 

[lupi]

Yeah can't understand all the panter picks. They only managed 7 wins by playing in an attrocious division and against a team in the playofss with their 4th string qb.

 

[Ban Bot]

Hatred runs deep.

I was gonna say the same thing but kudos to you for sticking to your guns. The rivalry won't be the same without Harbaugh. And I am sad to see him go & almost feel bad for Santa Clara. Jim was a very good coach and while I got a good laugh over his antics I loved how he marched to his own beat. Carrol had some nice parting words that I agree with--Jim was a heck of a coach and I am happy he moved on! Hint: it is always a BAD sign when your rival applauds your firing of your coach!

The Niners are a proud franchise with a storied legacy but I cringe at what Balky and York are doing to your team. I don't think Balky has done well with the massive draft hoard he has been given and seeing as the Niner issues pre-Harbaugh was not talent so much as coaching I am shocked they chose Balky. But not really shocked as York looks like a Danny Boy / Jerruh wannabe. Jim made mistakes (not sold on Roman and the thin defensive rotation was a big part of the Niner decline) but he has my respect and I think of the threesome Jim was by far and away the most valuable. As a fan I feel for you guys as your team was moved what, 30-40 miles away? It is mind boggling to think of Seattle moving to Olympia or Marysville. That would just KILL local fans due to traffic which I know SF has even worse than Seattle. Jim was a bright spot.

One thing I think Seattle fans have learned is to be the best you have to beat the best. Santa Clara brought the best out of Seattle, the NFC West, and the NFL in general. It won't be the same until you guys are back on your feet. So I am rooting for you guys to rise up again quickly because the only thing better than beating the Niners is beating a good Niner's team. I am afraid without Jim you guys will return to your more recent legacy (2000s) and not your heritage (80s and early 90s).

Niner fans deserve better--but the Niner organization is getting what they deserve. I would invite you onto the Seattle bandwagon but we appreciate your disdain and hate as a sign of respect. You can only hate a team that is good. For too long Seattle was the little brother team people were apathetic too and got sympathy points. So hate on haters Get better Niners so we can feel good about hating you--because hating a floundering franchise in disarray makes you feel a little dirty.

 

[HTFOff]

Seattle has been holding teams to like 6 ppg for the last two months. At home, away etc.

Against an inept offense IN seattle, i'm not touching carolina.

 

[dougp]

Eh, the Carolina offense has been a bit hit or miss. Their defense isn't terrible, and quite honestly, I find the Seahawks offense to be every bit as bad as the Carolina offense.

 

[bshole]

Seattle has been holding teams to like 6 ppg for the last two months. At home, away etc.

Against an inept offense IN seattle, i'm not touching carolina.

I felt the only team in the NFC capable of beating Seattle in Seattle was Detroit and now they are gone. It sucks for the Packers that they are going to have play there. They have as much chance of winning there as Dallas has at winning in Green Bay.... way less than 1%.

 

[dougp]

I felt the only team in the NFC capable of beating Seattle in Seattle was Detroit and now they are gone. It sucks for the Packers that they are going to have play there. They have as much chance of winning there as Dallas has at winning in Green Bay.... way less than 1%.

You realize that Dallas beat Seattle at home, right?

 

[bshole]

You realize that Dallas beat Seattle at home, right?

Of course, but the chances of Dallas playing Seattle in playoffs are nonexistent. Dallas HAS to get through Green Bay and that will never happen. I was looking for a team to knock off Seattle so that Green Bay could go to the Super Bowl, Dallas never figured in my calculation.

 

[Ban Bot]

Eh, the Carolina offense has been a bit hit or miss. Their defense isn't terrible, and quite honestly, I find the Seahawks offense to be every bit as bad as the Carolina offense.

If you mean by bad Top Third of the NFL then I would agree. Seattle not only has a top 1/3 offense but an elite running game:

Offense, yards: SEA #9, CAR #15
Offense, points: SEA #10, CAR #19
Rushing, yards: SEA 1 #1, CAR #11
Rushing, average: SEA #1, CAR #15

Their advanced metrics are also very good. Football Outsiders offensive DVOA has Seattle as #5 in the league at 16.7% above average. This is obviously aided by their great run attack--#5 all time per DVOA and 20pts higher than #2 this year which is CRAZY (29.9% above avg. for Seattle's rush attack which kills the #2 Miami at just above 10%)--but they are above average at passing--#10 with 19.6% above average. The net result of a Top10 passing and Top1 rushing is a Top5 offense in DVOA which measures how well teams do in certain situations (not volume stats).

Carolina is a -5.0% (#20) in the league in offense.

Seattle: Very Good--#5
Carolina: Below Average--#20

Seattle and Carolina may both be boring, old school offenses but in terms of efficiency they are night and day. And this is coming from a Seattle fan who the inconsistent play of the receivers, tight ends, and line drives me nuts. Obviously, Seattle's offense isn't great at everything. Receivers are below average, the line is bad at pass pro and injured, without Miller the tight ends are a mess. The passing volume stats are below average. At first blush the number of drive (175, #26t) and total play count (1,058, #14t) are mediocre if not below average. But the offense is efficient with those drives. Importantly, in time per drive they rank #2 (2:58; avg. is 2:27) thus giving the defense ample time to rest. This goes back to the idea that your offense isn't a unit unto itself but football is a team game. Seattle plays offense to help their defense. The Time of Possession is one way in which Seattle helps the defense via conservative play calling. Another?

Seattle's offense is extremely turnover adverse with a league low 6.9% of drives ending in a turnover (#1; avg. is 12.1%). So it isn't just that they are very good at not turning the ball over (important) but on a per-drive basis (more important) they do it better than everyone else. When a team like Seattle limits your drives and time it is important to be efficient, NOT raw numbers.

Which is why advanced metrics like Seattle--they are efficient. They make good use of their plays (#6t at 5.9 yards per play; avg. is 5.4) in 6.0 plays per drive (#8t). The net result is 34.2 yards per drive (#5; avg. is 30.1).

This deserves some reflection. Seattle’s offense is #2 in time per drive and #5 in yards per drive. Those are hardly pedestrian offensive numbers and strongly support Seattle’s #5 offensive DVOA rating. Seattle scores on an impressive 40.6% of their drives (#5; avg. is 34.1). What Seattle lacks in “raw” production on offense is more than made up for in quality. Of course Seattle fans will be fighting this proxy fight via Wilson vs. Luck for the next decade because fans have become tempered to look at the star wars numbers in the passing game. Elite running game? Pfffft. Who cares if Seattle has the 5th best run attack ever and is #1 in yards per game by 30 yards a game over # 2 and # 1 in average per carry by over 0.5 yards over #2.

But keep sleeping on Seattle, saying it is all the defense, and that Seattle's offense is as bad as Carolinas.

Seattle's offense is inconsistent. It isn't without faults--the line is obviously bad and they don't have a large #1 target at receiver. They don't play for volume stats which is what fantasy fans care about. And they are boring, bucking the NFL pass trend with the least number of pass attempts, which makes casual fans think Seattle has a bad offense.

What is bad, though, is people cannot recognize an elite running attack when it hits them on the head. Or worse, when a team like Seattle rarely turns over the ball fans are so attuned to players who throw Pick 6s and Fumble in their end zone but go gaga over their yards & TDs that they cannot appreciate what BALL CONTROL means for WINS. Seattle could have much better "raw" numbers if they took some other team's approach to ball security. But they would be just like all the other "good teams" with stats but are at the end of the day a bad team.

 

[manimal]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/aaron-rodgerss-hardest-catch-his-jokes-1420482041

have fun storming the castle

 

[HTFOff]

You realize that Dallas beat Seattle at home, right?

Seattle was a different team earlier in the year, at least on defense. I knew that, you knew that, we all knew that. We're on a tech site posting in a sports thread ffs.

They're healthier now and are simply dominating teams. And it's boring as hell, tbh.

 

[Ban Bot]

Of course, but the chances of Dallas playing Seattle in playoffs are nonexistent. Dallas HAS to get through Green Bay and that will never happen. I was looking for a team to knock off Seattle so that Green Bay could go to the Super Bowl, Dallas never figured in my calculation.

Sheesh, give Dallas some respect. I am glad most Seattle fans, and more importantly the Hawks themselves, won't sleep on them. Obviously Seattle is focused on 1-0 this week so who cares about Dallas.

But come NFCCG that balanced Dallas team could very well be at the CLink. And Dallas will be confident after their early season win.

Of course I full expect Dallas fans to crow over their NFLEast record and how and their win in Seattle. Every team gave Seattle their best shot and Dallas was able to walk away with a W. Give that to them. But they will both be giving their best shot in the NFCCG and Seattle isn't slumbering or in a rut anymore. Hats off to Dallas if they can walk into the CLink and take the NFCCG. But they are going to have to earn it. And they will have to do it without a pouting Harvin cancer refusing to play and Lynch getting 2 (two!!!) carries in a half.

I very much want to see a Seattle-Dallas rematch. Dallas fans have ached for over a decade to open their big mouths and talk down the rest of the league and there would be nothing more sweet than to see a Sherman pick six to seal a Seattle victory and hear him yapping back at Dallas fans. And I am sure Dallas fans would treat beating Seattle and shutting up Seattle fans and the LOB as their Super Bowl. Which is the problem--beating Seattle isn't the Super Bowl and while beating Seattle was considered a "measuring stick" as many outlets were echoing. And after their win you read quotes like, "I just really couldn’t have imagined us playing and competing the way we competed" and “We’ll see them again,” receiver Dez Bryant said of Seattle (3-2). “But playing the way we did here gives us a lot of confidence going forward.” Or my favorite from Jones, “This is Jason Garrett’s finest hour as a Cowboy. It really is. He’s returning to Dallas a better coach.” I understand it was a turning point for the 8-8 mediocre franchise the last decade but that would be my point: Dallas fans getting all down on Seattle for a crappy offense and Dallas beating Seattle early in the year are overlooking a lot of factors. The game will be quite different in the NFCCG with a healthy Seattle defense and a better offense with something to prove after that embarrassing loss (ugh, 3&20 for real?) Dallas could win and I hope their fans talk crap allllll week!

 

[KeithTalent]

Yeah can't understand all the panter picks. They only managed 7 wins by playing in an attrocious division and against a team in the playofss with their 4th string qb.

Agree, would not touch the Panthers until it went to something like +12.5. It seems like recency bias, since the Panthers actually ended the season well with 4 wins in a row, but those wins were against the 'aints, Bucs, Browns, and Falcons, then they beat the Cards who not only were starting Lindley, but their defense had also gone to shit over the last handful of games. Not exactly a murderers row the Panthers beat and I expect they will get their asses handed to them in the PNW this weekend.

KT

 

[dougp]

If you mean by bad Top Third of the NFL then I would agree. Seattle not only has a top 1/3 offense but an elite running game:

Offense, yards: SEA #9, CAR #15
Offense, points: SEA #10, CAR #19
Rushing, yards: SEA 1 #1, CAR #11
Rushing, average: SEA #1, CAR #15

Their advanced metrics are also very good. Football Outsiders offensive DVOA has Seattle as #5 in the league at 16.7% above average. This is obviously aided by their great run attack--#5 all time per DVOA and 20pts higher than #2 this year which is CRAZY (29.9% above avg. for Seattle's rush attack which kills the #2 Miami at just above 10%)--but they are above average at passing--#10 with 19.6% above average. The net result of a Top10 passing and Top1 rushing is a Top5 offense in DVOA which measures how well teams do in certain situations (not volume stats).

Carolina is a -5.0% (#20) in the league in offense.

Seattle: Very Good--#5
Carolina: Below Average--#20

Seattle and Carolina may both be boring, old school offenses but in terms of efficiency they are night and day. And this is coming from a Seattle fan who the inconsistent play of the receivers, tight ends, and line drives me nuts. Obviously, Seattle's offense isn't great at everything. Receivers are below average, the line is bad at pass pro and injured, without Miller the tight ends are a mess. The passing volume stats are below average. At first blush the number of drive (175, #26t) and total play count (1,058, #14t) are mediocre if not below average. But the offense is efficient with those drives. Importantly, in time per drive they rank #2 (2:58; avg. is 2:27) thus giving the defense ample time to rest. This goes back to the idea that your offense isn't a unit unto itself but football is a team game. Seattle plays offense to help their defense. The Time of Possession is one way in which Seattle helps the defense via conservative play calling. Another?

Seattle's offense is extremely turnover adverse with a league low 6.9% of drives ending in a turnover (#1; avg. is 12.1%). So it isn't just that they are very good at not turning the ball over (important) but on a per-drive basis (more important) they do it better than everyone else. When a team like Seattle limits your drives and time it is important to be efficient, NOT raw numbers.

Which is why advanced metrics like Seattle--they are efficient. They make good use of their plays (#6t at 5.9 yards per play; avg. is 5.4) in 6.0 plays per drive (#8t). The net result is 34.2 yards per drive (#5; avg. is 30.1).

This deserves some reflection. Seattle’s offense is #2 in time per drive and #5 in yards per drive. Those are hardly pedestrian offensive numbers and strongly support Seattle’s #5 offensive DVOA rating. Seattle scores on an impressive 40.6% of their drives (#5; avg. is 34.1). What Seattle lacks in “raw” production on offense is more than made up for in quality. Of course Seattle fans will be fighting this proxy fight via Wilson vs. Luck for the next decade because fans have become tempered to look at the star wars numbers in the passing game. Elite running game? Pfffft. Who cares if Seattle has the 5th best run attack ever and is #1 in yards per game by 30 yards a game over # 2 and # 1 in average per carry by over 0.5 yards over #2.

But keep sleeping on Seattle, saying it is all the defense, and that Seattle's offense is as bad as Carolinas.

Seattle's offense is inconsistent. It isn't without faults--the line is obviously bad and they don't have a large #1 target at receiver. They don't play for volume stats which is what fantasy fans care about. And they are boring, bucking the NFL pass trend with the least number of pass attempts, which makes casual fans think Seattle has a bad offense.

What is bad, though, is people cannot recognize an elite running attack when it hits them on the head. Or worse, when a team like Seattle rarely turns over the ball fans are so attuned to players who throw Pick 6s and Fumble in their end zone but go gaga over their yards & TDs that they cannot appreciate what BALL CONTROL means for WINS. Seattle could have much better "raw" numbers if they took some other team's approach to ball security. But they would be just like all the other "good teams" with stats but are at the end of the day a bad team.

What the fuck do you do for a living? Jack off to ESPN stats pages? Jesus. I recognize their run game, but they are still an inconsistent offense. I don't question the production of Lynch, or Wilson but of their other targets. No consistency from the TE position, and Baldwin isn't any better.

As for their defense - it's good, but they weren't playing exactly high-powered offenses the last half of the season.

vs. Giants - 38-17 (W) - #10 (Late season propel by OBJ)
@ KC - 24-20 (L) - #25
vs. Arizona - 19-3 (W) - #24
@ San Fran - 19-3 (W) #20
@ Philly - 24-14 (W) - #5
vs. San Fran - 17-7 (W) - #20
@ Arizona - 35-6 (W) - #24
vs. St Louis - 20-6 (W) - #28

Only impressive win over a complete offensive team was Philly. I'm not saying Carolina is going to win - take a look at my fucking picks. I'm just giving some slight reasoning on why people might choose them - they've looked decent the last month, particularly on defense.

 

[RagingBITCH]

The Seahawks are going to absolutely RAPE the Panthers. The Panthers are an atrocious team. If the refs hadn't cheated to give the Cowboys the win, Detroit would have given Seattle a good run. What a disappointment, Green Bay and Seattle both have push-over opponents. I see double digit bitch-slappings in the NFC, the only interesting games will be in the AFC.

You people are still bitching about the Cowboys/Detroit game? lol.

 

[RagingBITCH]

Sheesh, give Dallas some respect. I am glad most Seattle fans, and more importantly the Hawks themselves, won't sleep on them. Obviously Seattle is focused on 1-0 this week so who cares about Dallas.

But come NFCCG that balanced Dallas team could very well be at the CLink. And Dallas will be confident after their early season win.

Of course I full expect Dallas fans to crow over their NFLEast record and how and their win in Seattle. Every team gave Seattle their best shot and Dallas was able to walk away with a W. Give that to them. But they will both be giving their best shot in the NFCCG and Seattle isn't slumbering or in a rut anymore. Hats off to Dallas if they can walk into the CLink and take the NFCCG. But they are going to have to earn it. And they will have to do it without a pouting Harvin cancer refusing to play and Lynch getting 2 (two!!!) carries in a half.

I very much want to see a Seattle-Dallas rematch. Dallas fans have ached for over a decade to open their big mouths and talk down the rest of the league and there would be nothing more sweet than to see a Sherman pick six to seal a Seattle victory and hear him yapping back at Dallas fans. And I am sure Dallas fans would treat beating Seattle and shutting up Seattle fans and the LOB as their Super Bowl. Which is the problem--beating Seattle isn't the Super Bowl and while beating Seattle was considered a "measuring stick" as many outlets were echoing. And after their win you read quotes like, "I just really couldn’t have imagined us playing and competing the way we competed" and “We’ll see them again,” receiver Dez Bryant said of Seattle (3-2). “But playing the way we did here gives us a lot of confidence going forward.” Or my favorite from Jones, “This is Jason Garrett’s finest hour as a Cowboy. It really is. He’s returning to Dallas a better coach.” I understand it was a turning point for the 8-8 mediocre franchise the last decade but that would be my point: Dallas fans getting all down on Seattle for a crappy offense and Dallas beating Seattle early in the year are overlooking a lot of factors. The game will be quite different in the NFCCG with a healthy Seattle defense and a better offense with something to prove after that embarrassing loss (ugh, 3&20 for real?) Dallas could win and I hope their fans talk crap allllll week!

As a lifelong Dallas fan, I didn't go into this season with much hope. The 49'ers game just made me angry, yet I still continued to watch them play. They've done surprisingly well given their lack of a defense. I think they pull the upset in GB...no one is giving them a chance and that's why they'll win.

And even if they lose, hey, they're expected to and never should have gotten this far, at least based on all the conspiracy nuts and flaggate.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

If Luck got to the Super Bowl this year he'll get blown out in historic fashion by the Seahawks and maybe even Cowboys. I could easily see a +21 line on Indy or maybe more.

We won't have to worry about that, fortunately. I do think the Colts are capable of beating the Broncos in Denver, but I don't think it will happen this weekend.

 

[bshole]

You people are still bitching about the Cowboys/Detroit game? lol.

Gimme a break, the head of the refs was seen slupping around with Jerry Jones' kid, it doesn't take a genuis to figure out that the fix was in. The atrocious calls in the game say all that needs saying. The NFL wanted the Cowboys in the next round and that is exactly what they got. They will net millions more dollars because of it.

 

[dougp]

Gimme a break, the head of the refs was seen slupping around with Jerry Jones' kid, it doesn't take a genuis to figure out that the fix was in. The atrocious calls in the game say all that needs saying. The NFL wanted the Cowboys in the next round and that is exactly what they got. They will net millions more dollars because of it.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

dougie is getting a little cocky since the Cowboys won their once-per-decade playoff game. LOOK OUT FOLKS!

 

[videogames101]

What's with all the Ravens picks? You guys need a reality check. Check you money at the door gents, I'll be collecting on Saturday.

 

[dougp]

dougie is getting a little cocky since the Cowboys won their once-per-decade playoff game. LOOK OUT FOLKS!

I'm not getting cocky, I'm getting frustrated at people who feel the need to only point out penalties against the Cowboys instead of the ones that are against the Lions as well. And taking credit away from the Cowboys for winning by saying the Detroit gave them the game.

And now, cause of you, I hope Ware lights Luck's ass up and goes Suh on his leg.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

And now, cause of you, I hope Ware lights Luck's ass up and goes Suh on his leg.

Oh shit, how will I ever sleep at night when the Broncos inevitably beat the Colts, knowing that *I* am guilty of riling up dougp to such an extent that his "hope" spurs on malicious behavior from Broncos defenders?