***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/13/markets/sandp_europe_downgrade/index.htm?iid=Lead

Finally. Italy's has to be the worst. If it's ~7% bonds aren't bad enough, let's see if this was "priced in" yet.

 

[JEDI]

also greece broke off talks in halving their debt payment.

they owe $14B payment in march. the talks would have halved that to $7B and written off the other 1/2.

greece is inching closer and closer to default.

 

[FoBoT]

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded the government debt of France, Austria, Italy and Spain by one notch, but maintained Germany's at the coveted 'AAA' level.
The cuts, which eliminated France and Austria's triple-A status, deal a heavy blow to the currency union's ability to fight off a worsening debt crisis.
Italy was lowered to BBB+ from A. Spain slipped to A from AA-.

 

[JEDI]

France, Italy, and Portugal downgraded. Some other ones too. No surprise, but let's see what happens Sunday night!

Just announced, so can't find a story to link to yet.

Boo ya for 80% cash. Stuck with my TGT since it's TGT... Probably will regret it, but meh, 80% cash insurance.

i'm 100% in stocks, but got rid of my margin (67% usage @3% ) this week.

wait till nov to meet long term gain's 15% tax rate b4 selling non-margin postiions.
(or longer than nov 2012 if the extend/kill the 15% rate expiration)

 

[Arachnotronic]

What I see is a buying opportunity come Tuesday.

Agreed. I'm 80% cash, so, to quote the Klingons, "It is a good day to buy!"

 

[Imp]

Agreed. I'm 80% cash, so, to quote the Klingons, "It is a good day to buy!"

I'm waiting at least a few days. Hopefully, it melts back down to the lows of the last trough with the DOW in the low 11,000 range. Even better would be a complete meltdown that breaks through the 11k mark.

Maybe it'll surprise me and everyone apparently forgets about Europe by Wed, and we rally more.

 

[rcpratt]

Europe was up today.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yup, up. Kinda surprised.

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/americas/

Tuesdday should be interesting.

 

[JEDI]

Yup, up. Kinda surprised.

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/americas/

Tuesdday should be interesting.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/16/markets/sandp_efsf_downgrade/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

S&P downgrades Europe bailout fund

yeah, tomorow's going to be interesting indeed...


and i didnt even kno the bailout fund had a rating

 

[KB]

Most of the downgrades were expected, which is why the market didn't crash, but it looks like we aren't going past 12,500 on the Dow until Europe is resolved.

Greece is definately the big worry. Creditors don't want to take a 50% haircut, so they are likely to take a 100%. Even if they agree to a 50% payback of Greek bonds, Greece will still have huge interest rates for good. They should probably throw Greece to the wolves and try to save italy and Spain with the bailout.

 

[Imp]

For some reason, I'm not too surprised by markets today. At the same time, I am seriously going to give it a week before putting any more money in.

I just can't forget that the market is literally retarded... Keep thinking back to the August 6-ish meltdown: no one was really worried about the US defaulting, but hey, after all is "fixed", it suddenly crashes on "Europe worries" - whatever the hell that means.

Also, don't ignore the effect of the US holiday: shit moved nowhere the week between Christmas and New Years, but popped huge the second everyone was back at work in the US of A.

 

[JEDI]

hm.. thinking about shorting oil.. $100k worth

no way is iran going to go thru it's threat
(at least i'm betting their not)

 

[JEDI]

is there a program that reads Candlesticks, and gives you a forecast? ie: reversals

 

[Imp]

hm.. thinking about shorting oil.. $100k worth

no way is iran going to go thru it's threat
(at least i'm betting their not)

Everyone's saying that if Iran blocks the strait, they block their own shipments of oil and just about everything else, effing themselves 10x worse than everyone else.

And if they do, there are piplines existing/on the way to bypass the strait. Obviously, capacity would be fuxxored.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

WFC up in pre-market 1.7%

Sucks that I sold it at $27.??

 

[hiromizu]

is there a program that reads Candlesticks, and gives you a forecast? ie: reversals

Smartrend does this. I get an email alert almost everyday and for some reason they're almost always right.

 

[Hugo Drax]

hm.. thinking about shorting oil.. $100k worth

no way is iran going to go thru it's threat
(at least i'm betting their not)

What would be your variation margin requirement to maintain such a position with the CME?

 

[zimu]

based on this:
http://www.teribuhl.com/2011/12/22/sec-gets-spongetech-fraudster-to-pay-1-3-million/

is there any chance that investors who were ripped off would get some of their money back?

I didn't invest much (less than a grand) and have already written off the amount, but still keep an eye on it every few months to see what's going on.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I'm guessing APPL is good for about a 20 point run up to the 24th.

Not sure if I'll hold through earnings, thinking about it pretty seriously...

 

[The-Noid]

What would be your variation margin requirement to maintain such a position with the CME?

Assuming he used March e-minis for the financial aspect it would be $5,350 (2 contracts of 500 barrels) for maintenance so variation margin at contract initiation is $1,872 assuming you wanted to withdraw it all.

If he wanted to use the front month even though its days to ex is not that high it would be $1,960. ($5,600 maintenance)

Big crude is +- the same, however the physical netting is a bit more cumbersome.

Obviously if he withdrew all the variation and the price dropped even a minimum tick it would result in deposits up to the initial margin requirement. Did you mean what is the maintenance margin?

 

[JEDI]

Smartrend does this. I get an email alert almost everyday and for some reason they're almost always right.

ah.. was thinking of a free program

 

[Imp]

WFC up in pre-market 1.7%

Sucks that I sold it at $27.??

Psh.. I sold SU at $28-ish, bought at $27-ish. Now at $32-$33. FML. Bought it just as Iran was starting their bullshit, but didn't see it move for a week in response, so sold. Then it went up when holidays ended week of Jan 1.



Okay, so still rallying... At least Citigroup fropped 6%. I'll get into that when it goes below $25-$26. Sold TGT today for a smallish gain ($200 not TOO shabby) - it's just been stagnating for "too long" and I'm assuming a downtrend. Oh well, means more money to play C if I'm wrong.

 

[hiromizu]

ah.. was thinking of a free program

Honestly, it's f*ckin bunk since it's almost all based on charts and other graphic metrics and doesn't provide any real analysis of what's going on with the company financials, industry, economics or politics. Think about it...it reports how well some of its good recommendations did but doesn't tell you about the bad recommendations...much like how day traders talk about their gains but nothing else

Considering it's a paid service, I can't imagine how much better a free service is D:

 

[hiromizu]

ah.. was thinking of a free program

Anyway if you're into that sorta thing try http://clearstation.etrade.com/

It's one of the better ones I've discovered when I first started 'trading.' Wasn't long before I learned TA was bunk

 

[JTsyo]

Psh.. I sold SU at $28-ish, bought at $27-ish. Now at $32-$33. FML. Bought it just as Iran was starting their bullshit, but didn't see it move for a week in response, so sold. Then it went up when holidays ended week of Jan 1.



Okay, so still rallying... At least Citigroup fropped 6%. I'll get into that when it goes below $25-$26. Sold TGT today for a smallish gain ($200 not TOO shabby) - it's just been stagnating for "too long" and I'm assuming a downtrend. Oh well, means more money to play C if I'm wrong.

How do you figure for C to drop another 10 points?

EDIT: never mind though it was in the 30s.

I might have to jump into nVidia if they drop any further. I'll wait to see what it does tomorrow. 13.50 was what I was waiting for.