***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Sell in May and take a holiday, just sayin....

I don't believe in that "sell in may, go away" nonsense.
If the market does happen to tank, I know I won't loose much by going defensive.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still brush their teeth.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still have garbage/trash.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still drink Coca-Cola.

Sold APC today, increased stake in KO.
There's no brand stronger than the Coca-Cola brand. :thumbsup:
Nice consistent dividends.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Sell in May and take a holiday, just sayin....

I don't believe in that "sell in may, go away" nonsense.
If the market does happen to tank, I know I won't loose much by going defensive.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still brush their teeth.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still have garbage/trash.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still drink Coca-Cola.

Sold APC today, increased stake in KO.
There's no brand stronger than the Coca-Cola brand. :thumbsup:
Nice consistent dividends.

You might not believe or care but lot of people do believe it. If enough people believe it, it becomes true. Remember, perception is reality on Wall Street. At least for the short term. Same reason resistance levels must be respected. I don't follow lot of the charting stuff but I do look at stock's resistance levels and stuff like the 50 and 200dma. Why? Because lot of people look at those and trade off those. I don't always follow or believe it but I respect it. I always trade with the belief that market is going to tank in late August and September only to recover for the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year. Does the market tank every year around that time? No, but it has more often than not. Santa Claus rally happens more often than not because greed is powerful and Wall St. depends on it for their end of the year bonuses. Same reason why desperate funds walk up betas and momentum stocks at the end of the year trying to catch up and make up their lousy year. Same with the end of the quarter window dressings and end of the year tax selling. All these phenomenons exist because enough people believe it. Even if you don't believe it, you must respect it.

That said, time smooths out much of the wrinkles and business fundamentals win out. Coke is a fine choice. I used to prefer Pepsi as an investment over Coke due to its dry snack Frito Lays brand and relative low marketcap to Coke, but that's no longer the case. Coke stock has pretty much been stagnant over the past 8 years while Pepsi has doubled in price and marketcap. Coke is now more attractive than Pepsi IMO.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: Lothar
I don't believe in that "sell in may, go away" nonsense.
If the market does happen to tank, I know I won't loose much by going defensive.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still brush their teeth.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still have garbage/trash.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still drink Coca-Cola.

Sold APC today, increased stake in KO.
There's no brand stronger than the Coca-Cola brand. :thumbsup:
Nice consistent dividends.

They may be recession proof, but not necessarily market-tank proof. However if they aren't 'overvalued' at the time they would certainly be more apt to rebound faster and/or stronger when the selloff eases. :thumbsup:

Originally posted by: Naustica
Same reason resistance levels must be respected. I don't follow lot of the charting stuff but I do look at stock's resistance levels and stuff like the 50 and 200dma. Why? Because lot of people look at those and trade off those.

Moving averages imo are very significant, but yield less insight as simple support and resistance predictors and are more useful to look at the relationship of short, middle and longterm (etc.) moving averages with each other over time. Since both calculate off of the same data, they are going to have a correlation depending on the moving average sizes that are compared, and the convergence and divergence rates of change between each other over time are a lot more telling for making predictions of where the stock is going to go next. I believe this is true with not only longterm daily ma's but intraday minute ma's and even ma's of data over the last x seconds.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Sell in May and take a holiday, just sayin....

I don't believe in that "sell in may, go away" nonsense.
If the market does happen to tank, I know I won't loose much by going defensive.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still brush their teeth.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still have garbage/trash.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still drink Coca-Cola.

Sold APC today, increased stake in KO.
There's no brand stronger than the Coca-Cola brand. :thumbsup:
Nice consistent dividends.

You might not believe or care but lot of people do believe it. If enough people believe it, it becomes true. Remember, perception is reality on Wall Street. At least for the short term. Same reason resistance levels must be respected. I don't follow lot of the charting stuff but I do look at stock's resistance levels and stuff like the 50 and 200dma. Why? Because lot of people look at those and trade off those. I don't always follow or believe it but I respect it. I always trade with the belief that market is going to tank in late August and September only to recover for the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year. Does the market tank every year around that time? No, but it has more often than not. Santa Claus rally happens more often than not because greed is powerful and Wall St. depends on it for their end of the year bonuses. Same reason why desperate funds walk up betas and momentum stocks at the end of the year trying to catch up and make up their lousy year. Same with the end of the quarter window dressings and end of the year tax selling. All these phenomenons exist because enough people believe it. Even if you don't believe it, you must respect it.

That said, time smooths out much of the wrinkles and business fundamentals win out.

I'd rather stick to the business fundamentals, thank you very much.

I understand day moving averages in that they can show a trend, but I never understood how someone can just look at a stock chart and say "resistance is here", "break out is here", etc...

That said, I don't base my investment decisions on dma or stock charts.
I'd rather spend the extra time I have studying a company's books and understanding it's business than trying to determine what Mr. Market is doing, or what the resistance level and break point is of a stock chart.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Coke is a fine choice. I used to prefer Pepsi as an investment over Coke due to its dry snack Frito Lays brand and relative low marketcap to Coke, but that's no longer the case. Coke stock has pretty much been stagnant over the past 8 years while Pepsi has doubled in price and marketcap. Coke is now more attractive than Pepsi IMO.

I agree.

Not to mention they also have a better product.
I mean who the *beep* drinks Pepsi? Pepsi tastes like nothing but a watered down coke.
Real men drink Coke. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: Lothar
I don't believe in that "sell in may, go away" nonsense.
If the market does happen to tank, I know I won't loose much by going defensive.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still brush their teeth.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still have garbage/trash.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still drink Coca-Cola.

Sold APC today, increased stake in KO.
There's no brand stronger than the Coca-Cola brand. :thumbsup:
Nice consistent dividends.

They may be recession proof, but not necessarily market-tank proof. However if they aren't 'overvalued' at the time they would certainly be more apt to rebound faster and/or stronger when the selloff eases. :thumbsup:

I don't believe KO is overvalued at all.
WMI wasn't overvalued when I bought it, and I don't think it is now.
I still think KFT is a little undervalued. In fact I have a limit set to buy shares when it gets into <$30 range.

And yes, I'll still drink my favorite cold beverage regardless of market conditions.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: Lothar
I don't believe in that "sell in may, go away" nonsense.
If the market does happen to tank, I know I won't loose much by going defensive.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still brush their teeth.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still have garbage/trash.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still drink Coca-Cola.

Sold APC today, increased stake in KO.
There's no brand stronger than the Coca-Cola brand. :thumbsup:
Nice consistent dividends.

They may be recession proof, but not necessarily market-tank proof. However if they aren't 'overvalued' at the time they would certainly be more apt to rebound faster and/or stronger when the selloff eases. :thumbsup:

I don't believe KO is overvalued at all.
WMI wasn't overvalued when I bought it, and I don't think it is now.
I still think KFT is a little undervalued. In fact I have a limit set to buy shares when it gets into <$30 range.

And yes, I'll still drink my favorite cold beverage regardless of market conditions.

I'm getting addicted to Coke Zero. There's no mistaking it's diet imo but there's barely a diet aftertaste or fake sweetener flavor. :thumbsup: Not to mention their commercials are hilarious.

 

[ViperVin2]

Originally posted by: Lothar
Real old men drink Coke. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

fixt for you. Pepsi > *

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: Lothar
I don't believe in that "sell in may, go away" nonsense.
If the market does happen to tank, I know I won't loose much by going defensive.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still brush their teeth.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still have garbage/trash.
Regardless of whether there's a recession or not, people will still drink Coca-Cola.

Sold APC today, increased stake in KO.
There's no brand stronger than the Coca-Cola brand. :thumbsup:
Nice consistent dividends.

They may be recession proof, but not necessarily market-tank proof. However if they aren't 'overvalued' at the time they would certainly be more apt to rebound faster and/or stronger when the selloff eases. :thumbsup:

I don't believe KO is overvalued at all.
WMI wasn't overvalued when I bought it, and I don't think it is now.
I still think KFT is a little undervalued. In fact I have a limit set to buy shares when it gets into <$30 range.

And yes, I'll still drink my favorite cold beverage regardless of market conditions.

KFT is excellent as well. Stock hasn't moved in like 8 years since it was spun off from Big MO. Meanwhile, the company made and continues to make piles of money and pay excellent dividend. Stock is cheap and eventually the market will wake up and recognize it. I'm a buyer at ~$30. It's one of those buy it and forget it stock.

WMI is undervalued as well and also pays nice dividend. Waste Management was one of value fund managers favorite stocks for years before the accounting scandal years back during the dot com days. Julian Robertson of the Tiger Fund suffered massive losses from Waste Managment and US Airways and closed up shop back in early 2000. It's ironic because Mr. Robertson was one of the best value investors for years with his Tiger hedge funds and the dot com bubble killed his valued investing style. Of course Robertson gets the last laugh since Waste Management has since recovered and so has value investing. Robertson is making a killing investing his own money now and last I heard he's returned over 400% since 2000. Supposedly recently he's made a killing shorting subprime stuff and shorting 10 yr Treasuries while going long 2 yr Treasuries.

KO, KFT, WMI are all great picks for investors. Great stocks to buy for Roth IRA IMO.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica
Coke is a fine choice. I used to prefer Pepsi as an investment over Coke due to its dry snack Frito Lays brand and relative low marketcap to Coke, but that's no longer the case. Coke stock has pretty much been stagnant over the past 8 years while Pepsi has doubled in price and marketcap. Coke is now more attractive than Pepsi IMO.

I agree.

Not to mention they also have a better product.
I mean who the *beep* drinks Pepsi? Pepsi tastes like nothing but a watered down coke.
Real men drink Coke. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Pepsi has always been about Frito Lays and their dry snacks. When Gorilla investing style went out of favor around 2000, second tier players like Pepsi, Target, Lowes, etc went on a nice run. They were always too cheap compared to the Gorillas so it's nice the gap has narrowed. Now, it's time to hop on the Gorillas IMO.

Real men drink Dr. Pepper.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I dunno folks, I think we're in for a bit of stagflation.

Picked up some 20 year corporate paper at 8.5% last month
current equities:

GG, MOS, AAPL, APA, MVL

MVL has been a great buy, +23.18%

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
I dunno folks, I think we're in for a bit of stagflation.

Picked up some 20 year corporate paper at 8.5% last month
current equities:

GG, MOS, AAPL, APA, MVL

MVL has been a great buy, +23.18%

I noticed you like to dabble with momentum or in-favor stocks or sectors. Similar to how Jim Cramer used to buy. Are you a fan of him? What happened to your BRK.A?

I thought about buying MVL May $30 calls for a trade on Friday morning on May 2nd. I read the great reviews IronMan was getting from people here and on Rotten Tomato and thought it would have a blowout opening weekend. But I talked myself out the trade thinking the stock already ran up in anticipation and the potential for sell on the news was too great. I felt the trade was crowded and I thought people couldn't be that stupid to keep buying. I, of course, was totally wrong and stock gapped up even more on Monday morning when the weekend sales numbers came out and company reported earnings.

 

[Slew Foot]

Inflation is here whether the government reports it or not, i havent been doing much trading recently, my core account is the same as its always been

JNJ GE T PG
some natural resources mutual fund

I might pick up some shorts on the financials this week

 

[her209]

Sell in May and go away?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
I dunno folks, I think we're in for a bit of stagflation.

Picked up some 20 year corporate paper at 8.5% last month
current equities:

GG, MOS, AAPL, APA, MVL

MVL has been a great buy, +23.18%

I noticed you like to dabble with momentum or in-favor stocks or sectors. Similar to how Jim Cramer used to buy. Are you a fan of him? What happened to your BRK.A?

I thought about buying MVL May $30 calls for a trade on Friday morning on May 2nd. I read the great reviews IronMan was getting from people here and on Rotten Tomato and thought it would have a blowout opening weekend. But I talked myself out the trade thinking the stock already ran up in anticipation and the potential for sell on the news was too great. I felt the trade was crowded and I thought people couldn't be that stupid to keep buying. I, of course, was totally wrong and stock gapped up even more on Monday morning when the weekend sales numbers came out and company reported earnings.

Saw the trend in BRK.A & ditched it, made some nice $.

I listen to Cramer & am a subscriber to the motley fool's stock advisor's premium services.

MVL looked too simple to pass up, and I really liked the positive buzz it was getting, I also really liked the way they brought production in house. I was never a huge an of Iron Man fan, but when I read about the character I knew RDJ was born to play that kind of part...



Good catch on Cramer, although I think his ex wife is a more astute picker

 

[Azurik]

Can the markets please crash?

The market has always been irrational, but now it's just shrugging all bad news since it's so use to it.

How can I explain this...

It's like breaking up with your first love. Painful and heartbreaking, but you built a shell and future breaksups with other people never hurt as much.

THIS IS WHAT IT IS DOING!

I just want to buy in cheaply, please.

 

[Slew Foot]

Its kinda funny, as oil raced to 120+ the markets did nothing as it was expected. Now that its at 125 or so, oil drops a buck or tow , and all of a sudden its a reason for the market to rally. Im guessing there's a lot of extra money running around with nowhere to go, bond yields suck, real estate sucks, CDs suck, soo what to do? Stick it in the market.

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Can the markets please crash?

The market has always been irrational, but now it's just shrugging all bad news since it's so use to it.

How can I explain this...

It's like breaking up with your first love. Painful and heartbreaking, but you built a shell and future breaksups with other people never hurt as much.

THIS IS WHAT IT IS DOING!

I just want to buy in cheaply, please.

It's driven by so much speculation that even fund managers are scratching their heads.

 

[Skunkwourk]

got a basic question since I joined the virtual stock exchange for fun just to see how I'd do. I gave myself 10K and purchased what you can see in this pic. Text

Anyway,

Equity v Long position. I have more equity than him, but his Long Position is way higher than mine (he bought Exxon). Can someone explain that? Is it because he used his equity to buy additionally shares? What happens if you decide to sell it all? Do you get your equity or whatever the long position number is?

Also what does the Margin refer to. I've looked around the internet for definitions, but I figured maybe someone could give me a laymens definition.

 

[bamacre]

Surprised to see no one with some shares of INTC.

Solid company, wonderful technology.

 

[her209]

Originally posted by: bamacre
Surprised to see no one with some shares of INTC.

Solid company, wonderful technology.

I have some.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: bamacre
Surprised to see no one with some shares of INTC.

Solid company, wonderful technology.

The only tech company I'm in is HPQ.
If I "had" to pick a second tech, INTC would be my choice.

I'll stick to HPQ for now.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica
Coke is a fine choice. I used to prefer Pepsi as an investment over Coke due to its dry snack Frito Lays brand and relative low marketcap to Coke, but that's no longer the case. Coke stock has pretty much been stagnant over the past 8 years while Pepsi has doubled in price and marketcap. Coke is now more attractive than Pepsi IMO.

I agree.

Not to mention they also have a better product.
I mean who the *beep* drinks Pepsi? Pepsi tastes like nothing but a watered down coke.
Real men drink Coke. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

Pepsi has always been about Frito Lays and their dry snacks. When Gorilla investing style went out of favor around 2000, second tier players like Pepsi, Target, Lowes, etc went on a nice run. They were always too cheap compared to the Gorillas so it's nice the gap has narrowed. Now, it's time to hop on the Gorillas IMO.

Real men drink Dr. Pepper.

If you like it so much you should consider investing in it.

DPS is crappy investment IMO.

 

[alphatarget1]

Hmm, i bought some PFE and GE... Do y'all think they're good buys?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: alphatarget1
Hmm, i bought some PFE and GE... Do y'all think they're good buys?

PFE isn't the best buy in the drug arena, imho. There's better values out there with better drugs in all stages of the pipeline.

I think GE is a good buy. I'm biased though. I bought when they fell on their previous earnings at $32.08 - if it gets lower than that, I'll buy more.