***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Crusty

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Crusty

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik
Bought 1,000 shares of General Electric (GE) this afternoon, averaging in at about $32.12

Not a daytrade move, but actually a long-term investment for me!

I'm planning to pick up a small position for my longterm account as well.

GE moves FAR too slow for a typical daytrade. Hope it makes you guys money!

It's not daytrade for me. I don't daytrade or swing trade my longterm account. I have separate trading account I use for short term trading.

I know , I never said you guys were!

I took a look at my account, my average is actually $32.08. And I know GE moves really slow... look at the past 6 years for any indications. I probably didn't buy it at the bottom either, considering the market looks like it piped down from it's week long euphoria. Historically, GE trades at a 19%-23% premium to the S&P and right now it's trading below S&P's P/E.

A conglomerate like this company isn't going away anytime soon, and it's oversea tech projects will help even out any US turbulence.

Planning to keep this at for the long-term unless something drastic happens.

 

[vi edit]

CROX dropped over 60% today. I took a gamble and bought in at around $10.32.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: vi edit
CROX dropped over 60% today. I took a gamble and bought in at around $10.32.

I was looking to short CROX last year at around $80/shr before the first haircut. But I thought the trade was crowded with about 40% of the float short so I chickened out not wanting to get squeezed by momentum funds. Should've, could've, but didn't. Favorite words of rearview trader.

Good luck with your position.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: vi edit
CROX dropped over 60% today. I took a gamble and bought in at around $10.32.

Investing in CROX...wow.
Good luck with your gamble.

No one I know wears those slippers anymore.
And yes, I know they make more than just slippers.

 

[Azurik]

Eh... as my first whacky buy this year is giving me all sorts of fits, the one I bought last year is still skyrocketing upwards. If you recall, I bought BDYT last year for $2.12 and sold in the $2.60 range. It has since gone up another 23%.

 

[bonkers325]

VMW, EMC, and LVLT all beat street expectations and are up in premarket

financials are a dog for me, i cant seem to pinpoint the ups and downs :/... i wish i got in at POT at $155 or MOS at $95

 

[Capt Caveman]

Yeah to Visa!

 

[bonkers325]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: vi edit
CROX dropped over 60% today. I took a gamble and bought in at around $10.32.

Investing in CROX...wow.
Good luck with your gamble.

No one I know wears those slippers anymore.
And yes, I know they make more than just slippers.

i hope you bought some $10 puts to hedge your risk

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: bonkers325

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: vi edit
CROX dropped over 60% today. I took a gamble and bought in at around $10.32.

Investing in CROX...wow.
Good luck with your gamble.

No one I know wears those slippers anymore.
And yes, I know they make more than just slippers.

i hope you bought some $10 puts to hedge your risk

I wasn't the one that invested in CROX.
I know nothing about options.

 

[ponyo]

Picked up some Starbucks today. I had to hold my nose because it smelled so bad. Dead money smell was overpowering.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Picked up some Starbucks today. I had to hold my nose because it smelled so bad. Dead money smell was overpowering.

Investment?
Will be a long time before SBUX gets revived. Don't expect Howard Schultz to fix things in an instant. He's only been there about 4 months and will probably take him at least a year or two to fix what's broken.

I don't drink coffee, but I heard MCD has the better coffee now.
And it doesn't cost $4-5/cup for it either.

MCD is a better investment.

 

[ponyo]

Depends on the price action. You know the saying, "investment is trade gone bad." I'm not expecting any quick miracle. I know fully well this is likely dead money near term. I've no problem holding it 4-5 years if need be.

I was a big fan of MCD coffee when they switched but don't care for it now. Quality is way too inconsistent with the various locations and it's more miss than hit now. Anyway, unlike the talking heads and analcysts, I don't believe MCD coffee is a competitor to Starbucks nor do I think Starbucks has lost any marketshare because of it. Starbucks main problem is the economy and the high gas prices. I know MCD is starting to roll out expresso cafe concept inside their stores to compete with Starbucks. I say good for them.

MCD a better investment? Maybe. MCD definitely had a good run the last couple years after the turnaround. But I also remember when you couldn't give away MCD stock couple years back when they were struggling internally and had sluggish sales. Buffett lost faith and sold then although he has since admitted his mistake. MCD is a great franchise with terrific worldwide brand name but it looks kind of pricey to me. Plus all you hear is good news and everyone loves it. That makes me wary and reason for me to not like it.

SBUX looks cheap but of course looks are deceiving. Especially when stock goes from growth to value. Give it couple more years and the Chinese will drink Starbucks out of its funk.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Depends on the price action. You know the saying, "investment is trade gone bad." I'm not expecting any quick miracle. I know fully well this is likely dead money near term. I've no problem holding it 4-5 years if need be.

I was a big fan of MCD coffee when they switched but don't care for it now. Quality is way too inconsistent with the various locations and it's more miss than hit now. Anyway, unlike the talking heads and analcysts, I don't believe MCD coffee is a competitor to Starbucks nor do I think Starbucks has lost any marketshare because of it. Starbucks main problem is the economy and the high gas prices. I know MCD is starting to roll out expresso cafe concept inside their stores to compete with Starbucks. I say good for them.

MCD a better investment? Maybe. MCD definitely had a good run the last couple years after the turnaround. But I also remember when you couldn't give away MCD stock couple years back when they were struggling internally and had sluggish sales. Buffett lost faith and sold then although he has since admitted his mistake. MCD is a great franchise with terrific worldwide brand name but it looks kind of pricey to me. Plus all you hear is good news and everyone loves it. That makes me wary and reason for me to not like it.

SBUX looks cheap but of course looks are deceiving. Especially when stock goes from growth to value. Give it couple more years and the Chinese will drink Starbucks out of its funk.

The problem with SBUX was they over expanded and are now in every mom and pop mall strip, discount and grocery stores in the US.
All those people who invested in the stock expecting the company to continue growing at 50% earnings/clip forever pretty much almost lost their shirts. The company's growth was unsustainable.

They need to take the same playbook as MCD.
Limit expansion in the US, while building shops overseas like MCD is doing in Russia and many other areas to increase shareholder value.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...id=38&threadid=2110665
Yes, SBUX has lost its soul.
It's now pretty much a retail chain. No difference from your local CVS type feeling.
That's the impression I get from people who used to go there very often. Now it seems they just order their coffee and leave.
See JEDI's post in that thread link.

Also note: If I say that I think something is a better investment than something else, it still doesn't mean I'll invest in it.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica
Picked up some Starbucks today. I had to hold my nose because it smelled so bad. Dead money smell was overpowering.

Investment?
Will be a long time before SBUX gets revived. Don't expect Howard Schultz to fix things in an instant. He's only been there about 4 months and will probably take him at least a year or two to fix what's broken.

I don't drink coffee, but I heard MCD has the better coffee now.
And it doesn't cost $4-5/cup for it either.

MCD is a better investment.

I don't know about the stock, but MCD coffee ftw! :thumbsup:

A large is still $1.50, but the flavor is nice and not as overpowering and acidic as starbucks. A real nice thing about getting it from there is they put the amount of cream/sugar you want in it for you.

All those people who invested in the stock expecting the company to continue growing at 50% earnings/clip forever pretty much almost lost their shirts. The company's growth was unsustainable.

That's one thing I hate about the trendiness of looking at 'forward earnings p/e ratios'. It gets so trendy with stocks that have had recent earnings acceleration, and projected future acceleration looks so attractive but is often flat out improbable. It seems to give people an excuse to buy a stock that's already surged, so they can be like the average sucker and get in at the top.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar

The problem with SBUX was they over expanded and are now in every mom and pop mall strip, discount and grocery stores in the US.
All those people who invested in the stock expecting the company to continue growing at 50% earnings/clip forever pretty much almost lost their shirts. The company's growth was unsustainable.

They need to take the same playbook as MCD.
Limit expansion in the US, while building shops overseas like MCD is doing in Russia and many other areas to increase shareholder value.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...id=38&threadid=2110665
Yes, SBUX has lost its soul.
It's now pretty much a retail chain. No difference from your local CVS type feeling.
That's the impression I get from people who used to go there very often. Now it seems they just order their coffee and leave.
See JEDI's post in that thread link.

Also note: If I say that I think something is a better investment than something else, it still doesn't mean I'll invest in it.

http://www.businessweek.com/in...4/loneliness_as_t.html

SBUX has cut their US expansion plans and started to close underperforming stores. US market has limited growth but international growth will be explosive in the coming years and pick up some of the slack from the domestic market. Company longterm goal is to have 15,000 international stores, with most in China. SBUX only has around 240 stores in mainland China right now. That market potential is tremendous as it gains wealth and youths embrace coffee. They're expanding in Russia and Brazil as well. International will be the growth driver in the coming years. There's plenty growth left. This is their first major growing pain, and they'll work through this. More than $9 billion annual sales with more than a billion annual cash flow and $11.5 billion marketcap. Look at MCD and see their numbers.

Prices tend to overshoot both ways and if it drops substantially to like $10, I'll make major investment.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Lothar
The problem with SBUX was they over expanded and are now in every mom and pop mall strip, discount and grocery stores in the US.
All those people who invested in the stock expecting the company to continue growing at 50% earnings/clip forever pretty much almost lost their shirts. The company's growth was unsustainable.

They need to take the same playbook as MCD.
Limit expansion in the US, while building shops overseas like MCD is doing in Russia and many other areas to increase shareholder value.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...id=38&threadid=2110665
Yes, SBUX has lost its soul.
It's now pretty much a retail chain. No difference from your local CVS type feeling.
That's the impression I get from people who used to go there very often. Now it seems they just order their coffee and leave.
See JEDI's post in that thread link.

Also note: If I say that I think something is a better investment than something else, it still doesn't mean I'll invest in it.

http://www.businessweek.com/in...4/loneliness_as_t.html

SBUX has cut their US expansion plans and started to close underperforming stores. US market has limited growth but international growth will be explosive in the coming years and pick up some of the slack from the domestic market. Company longterm goal is to have 15,000 international stores, with most in China. SBUX only has around 240 stores in mainland China right now. That market potential is tremendous as it gains wealth and youths embrace coffee. They're expanding in Russia and Brazil as well. International will be the growth driver in the coming years. There's plenty growth left. This is their first major growing pain, and they'll work through this. More than $9 billion annual sales with more than a billion annual cash flow and $11.5 billion marketcap. Look at MCD and see their numbers.

Prices tend to overshoot both ways and if it drops substantially to like $10, I'll make a major investment.

That article makes an interesting point, but it's still a guess whether the same thing will happen to SBUX or not.
I'd rather not play the guessing game at the moment.
I generally don't like to put money down for "future" potential and possibilities. If I like a business now based on their current numbers, I'll buy it.

I'd rather invest in a stronger brand like KO, which has delivered consistent growth on an earnings and book value/share basis than either than the SBUX or MCD brand ever has.

Their company goal of 15,000 international stores...Over how many years is it?
Do they have a specific date/year(ex: 2020, next decade, etc...) by which they're trying to reach that goal?

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: Lothar
All those people who invested in the stock expecting the company to continue growing at 50% earnings/clip forever pretty much almost lost their shirts. The company's growth was unsustainable.

That's one thing I hate about the trendiness of looking at 'forward earnings p/e ratios'. It gets so trendy with stocks that have had recent earnings acceleration, and projected future acceleration looks so attractive but is often flat out improbable. It seems to give people an excuse to buy a stock that's already surged, so they can be like the average sucker and get in at the top.

Earnings(that includes EPS, P/E, Forward P/E, and any other statistics I'm missing that has "earnings" in it) in general is pretty much meaningless.

I focus on per-share book value, rather than earnings, because doing so takes account of all capital gains and losses, whether realized or not.

 

[Azurik]

Bought an additional 150 shares shares in Raytheon (RTN), have a total of 550 shares now. As many of you know, I've been bullish on this stock since I started working at the company in early '06. It has vastly outperformed all 3 major U.S. stock indices and is actually up 6% YTD. Using this down day to buy additional shares.

I also bought 250 shares of Microsoft (MSFT). New position in the stock.

I don't think this rally is the reversal we are seeking long-term. I'm actually prepared for the next leg down. However, I'm more of a value-oriented investor, I'll buy in a down market if there's an opportunity.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Are you still ~50% in PIMCO bonds?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Lothar
Are you still ~50% in PIMCO bonds?

I'm about 40% in PIMCO bonds now, after buying new positions in GE and MSFT and additional shares in RTN.

I basically used the 10% reduction to buy the above stocks.

For my age (26), I'm still heavily weighted in bonds (alittle above 200k). I'm optimistic about the future of the US economy, but I think investors are shrugging off the financial mess too lightly. I mean... how much are we DOWN from our high reached late last year? After this week, not by much at all. We need a panic... and then I'll reduce my bond holdings to a normal 10%-15% and go all-in equities.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Bought an additional 150 shares shares in Raytheon (RTN), have a total of 550 shares now. As many of you know, I've been bullish on this stock since I started working at the company in early '06. It has vastly outperformed all 3 major U.S. stock indices and is actually up 6% YTD. Using this down day to buy additional shares.

I also bought 250 shares of Microsoft (MSFT). New position in the stock.

I don't think this rally is the reversal we are seeking long-term. I'm actually prepared for the next leg down. However, I'm more of a value-oriented investor, I'll buy in a down market if there's an opportunity.

I got my order for tomorrow morning to take a stab at some cheap Microsoft calls. Selling looks overdone and there's potential for Microsoft to withdraw Yahoo bid which would cause the stock to shoot back up.

The debt market is not buying this current bear market rally. Eventually the debt market will be right but when is the question. My feeling is the S&P breaks 1410 to suck people in and will crumble soon after.

 

[bonkers325]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: Lothar
All those people who invested in the stock expecting the company to continue growing at 50% earnings/clip forever pretty much almost lost their shirts. The company's growth was unsustainable.

That's one thing I hate about the trendiness of looking at 'forward earnings p/e ratios'. It gets so trendy with stocks that have had recent earnings acceleration, and projected future acceleration looks so attractive but is often flat out improbable. It seems to give people an excuse to buy a stock that's already surged, so they can be like the average sucker and get in at the top.

Earnings(that includes EPS, P/E, Forward P/E, and any other statistics I'm missing that has "earnings" in it) in general is pretty much meaningless.

I focus on per-share book value, rather than earnings, because doing so takes account of all capital gains and losses, whether realized or not.

P/E is useless, but i think EPS is a decent metric (out of many).

sbux was a fund baby, institutional investors pumped it then dumped it as soon as the financial crisis became imminent. same with crox and garmin. the 'popular' stuff only grows big because institutional investors feed on the perceived public opinion. once the institutional investors bail, theres no real support for the stock and it drops dramatically.

i bought some sbux calls on friday, there was support around $16 and earnings is due today. sold half of my options for a profit, betting on the other half for an earnings pop tomorrow.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: bonkers325

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: jjsole

Originally posted by: Lothar
All those people who invested in the stock expecting the company to continue growing at 50% earnings/clip forever pretty much almost lost their shirts. The company's growth was unsustainable.

That's one thing I hate about the trendiness of looking at 'forward earnings p/e ratios'. It gets so trendy with stocks that have had recent earnings acceleration, and projected future acceleration looks so attractive but is often flat out improbable. It seems to give people an excuse to buy a stock that's already surged, so they can be like the average sucker and get in at the top.

Earnings(that includes EPS, P/E, Forward P/E, and any other statistics I'm missing that has "earnings" in it) in general is pretty much meaningless.

I focus on per-share book value, rather than earnings, because doing so takes account of all capital gains and losses, whether realized or not.

P/E is useless, but i think EPS is a decent metric (out of many).

sbux was a fund baby, institutional investors pumped it then dumped it as soon as the financial crisis became imminent. same with crox and garmin. the 'popular' stuff only grows big because institutional investors feed on the perceived public opinion. once the institutional investors bail, theres no real support for the stock and it drops dramatically.

i bought some sbux calls on friday, there was support around $16 and earnings is due today. sold half of my options for a profit, betting on the other half for an earnings pop tomorrow.

I don't believe that's what happened with SBUX.
Looking at the charts, SBUX had been dropping well before the credit/subprime crisis.

If SBUX hadn't posted a 28% profit drop and a mid single-digits drop in same store sales today, I'd be more inclined to believe you.

At least we know for now that they're limiting their US expansion.
"Starbucks said it planned to reduce its fiscal 2008 U.S. store openings to 1,020 from 1600.
Under the new plan, U.S. company-owned and licensed store openings would be limited to 400 per year in 2009 through 2011, while international openings in those years would range from 1,050 to 1,300."

CROX? dunno, but the chart gives your theory credibility.
Garmin? I haven't even looked at.

 

[Noirish]

Originally posted by: Noirish
closed my SYNA position today for a 26% gain ($23 to $29), not bad for 1 week.

i guess i missed another 26% gain ($29-$35.5 now).

oh well, at least i switched to SNE ($40-$46.5) for a 15% gain.

 

[ponyo]

Rising tide lifts all the boats. I'm getting off the boat tomorrow. Will be selling the cheap May $29 Microsoft calls I picked up couple days ago. Currently up 73%. I'm also going to sell 1/2 of my Starbucks shares I picked up to lock in the ~8% gain and going to let the rest ride to hopefully $17.5-$18.

Sell in May and go away. I plan on following this advice.