Odds that N Korea blow themselves up with their own nuke

[renz20003]

10:1

Shoddy half assed n Korean tech imo

 

[lxskllr]

I wonder who would get the pieces. Think China would make a grab for it?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It's a shame they have innocent civilians (albeit, stupid ones since they don't educate them about the world). Otherwise, I can't think any of any nations that would declare war on us if we were to nuke them.

 

[renz20003]

I wonder who would get the pieces. Think China would make a grab for it?

I dunno china likes making money at this point, I'd say a unified Korea

 

[IronWing]

14%

 

[Humpy]

Pretty good odds that will be the story at least.

 

[Rumpltzer]

For some reason, I want so badly to know whether we (or someone) is hacking into their stuff to help create these "failures".

I doubt that China is going to be cool with the US (or our friends in S Korea) sitting on their border. China would certainly intervene.

 

[John Connor]

10:1

Shoddy half assed n Korean tech imo

HAHAHA. That's a very good thought right there. I never thought of that and with the U.S. I'm sure we are hacking their missile systems so this could be fun.

 

[renz20003]

HAHAHA. That's a very good thought right there. I never thought of that and with the U.S. I'm sure we are hacking their missile systems so this could be fun.

Shhh!!!!

I'm sure we are able to but keep that shit on the down low

 

[Ajay]

14%

Please be more exact.
Two decimal please

 

[IronWing]

Please be more exact.
Two decimal please

Very well, a probability of occurrence of 0.14.

 

[Ajay]

Very well, a probability of occurrence of 0.14.

Hai! I see what you did there

Anywho, if the worst case occurs and the US and China agree to intervene to stop DPRK from being able to deploy medium range ballistic missles; then I expect that both parties will split the country in the middle*. We will want SK to govern the southern half with 'assistance' from the U.S. China won't likely want a unified SK right on their boarder, so long as we are in the picture.

In this scenario, however unlikely, I expect a non-conventional war with the leadership of DPRK being decapitated. Nobody wants a major land battle on the Korean peninsula. China has a lot more visibility into DPRK than the U.S.

 

[BrainEater]

No odds.
100%.I'm pretty sure it's happened already.
NK has had several 'fizzles' on their way to unverified* nuclear status.I'm almost frightened to think what the death toll on that project is.
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* Unverified means this : We have never seen an above ground test from NK.We have seismic data , and some isotope data , but no concrete proof.

 

[Red Squirrel]

What's interesting is that they actually did manage to get a satellite in orbit, it was a failure in the sense that the RCS system failed and the satellite is spinning out of control, but they still got something in orbit. So have to give them that I guess. Probably a fluke that the rocket did not just explode though. Seems like 9 out of 10 of their rockets are basically just bombs.

NK, you're suppose to put the bomb at the end of the rocket, not make the entire rocket the bomb!

 

[Cappuccino]

so fail rate is 21% and success rate is 79%

 

[smackababy]

Wouldn't they need a nuke to be able to nuke themselves? They can't get the technology right to send a missile to Japan, how the fuck they gonna actually have something capable of nuclear fusion? So, I'm leaning as close to 0% as you can get without being actually 0.

 

[Capt Caveman]

It's a shame they have innocent civilians (albeit, stupid ones since they don't educate them about the world). Otherwise, I can't think any of any nations that would declare war on us if we were to nuke them.

That would be ignorant and I didn't realize you were North Korean

 

[Fir]

They don't need nukes.
Take down social media and the u-s-a will implode on itself.

 

[John Connor]

That can safely be accomplished with an airburst nuke. Not only will it take every electronic device down, people will starve, there will be riots and the shiter will back up. LOL

 

[Fir]

That can safely be accomplished with an airburst nuke. Not only will it take every electronic device down, people will starve, there will be riots and the shiter will back up. LOL

That's a myth.
The odds of a Carrington event in the next 100 years and the resulting effects are far greater,
Aerial burst (tsar bomba class) would induce current in long lines sufficient to cause damage but isolated electronics, handhelds, etc. would be fine.
To achieve the kind of levels to kill all electronic devices would cause far more damage from secondary effects of excessive electrical induction, side flashes, etc.

 

[manly]

For some reason, I want so badly to know whether we (or someone) is hacking into their stuff to help create these "failures".

I doubt that China is going to be cool with the US (or our friends in S Korea) sitting on their border. China would certainly intervene.

Are they really that concerned that the US would "occupy" DPRK? Obviously we'd love to see "regime change" but why would we want to be a caretaker of that country? We suck at nation building lol.

China is definitely concerned that a million or more North Korean refugees would stream across the border into NE China.

 

[BrainEater]

That's a myth.
The odds of a Carrington event in the next 100 years and the resulting effects are far greater,
Aerial burst (tsar bomba class) would induce current in long lines sufficient to cause damage but isolated electronics, handhelds, etc. would be fine.
To achieve the kind of levels to kill all electronic devices would cause far more damage from secondary effects of excessive electrical induction, side flashes, etc.

Not really a myth.
I'll direct you to : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Fishbowl

The starfish prime test shot enlightened us to EMP.
While yes , not ALL electronics will fry ,
Please be aware they can 'tune' the characteristics of a nuclear device , to emit whatever they want.
I assure you there are medium sized nuclear weapons purpose built for EMP.