Obama Wins Wyoming

May 31, 2001
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[/b]Obama beats Clinton in Wyoming caucuses[/b]

CASPER, Wyo. - Sen. Barack Obama captured the Wyoming Democratic caucuses Saturday, seizing a bit of momentum in the close, hard-fought race with rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the party's presidential nomination.


Obama generally has outperformed Clinton in caucuses, which reward organization and voter passion more than do primaries. The Illinois senator has now won 13 caucuses to Clinton's three.

Obama has also shown strength in the Mountain West, winning Idaho, Utah, Colorado and now Wyoming. The two split Nevada, with Clinton winning the popular vote and Obama more delegates.

But Clinton threw some effort into Wyoming, perhaps hoping for an upset that would yield few delegates but considerable buzz and momentum. The New York senator campaigned Friday in Cheyenne and Casper. Former President Clinton and their daughter, Chelsea, also campaigned this week in the sprawling and lightly populated state.

Obama campaigned in Casper and Laramie on Friday, but spent part of his time dealing with the fallout from an aide's harsh words about Clinton and suggestions that Obama wouldn't move as quickly to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq if elected. In Casper, Obama said Clinton had no standing to challenge his position on the war because she had voted to authorize it in 2002.

Clinton, buoyed by big wins in Ohio and Texas last Tuesday, said she faced an uphill fight in Wyoming. Her campaign also holds out little hope for Tuesday's primary in Mississippi, which has a large black population.

Obama had 59 percent, or 4,459 votes, to Clinton's 40 percent, or 3,081 votes, with 22 of 23 Wyoming counties reporting.

Obama won seven delegates and Clinton won five. In the overall race for the nomination, Obama led 1,578-1,468, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press. It will take 2,025 delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

Obama's campaign credited the candidate's message for the win.

"Especially in the intermountain West, people are hungry for something different, people are hungry for someone who's a uniter, who can bring together a coalition of change," said Gabe Cohen, Obama's state director in Wyoming.

Clinton's campaign took heart in their ability to pick up more delegates.

"We knew that Wyoming was an uphill climb and that Senator Obama was expected to win," said Ben Kobren, a spokesman for Clinton's campaign in Wyoming. "We're glad we were able to bring out our grassroots support and come very close in delegates."

Both candidates were looking ahead to the bigger prize ? delegate-rich Pennsylvania on April 22.

From the first caucuses of the day, it became clear the state's Democrats were showing up in large numbers. In 2004, a mere 675 people statewide took part in the caucuses.

In Sweetwater County, more than 500 people crowded into a high school auditorium and another 500 were lined up to get inside.

"I'm worried about where we're going to put them all. But I guess everybody's got the same problem," said Joyce Corcoran, a local party official. "So far we're OK. But man, they keep coming."

Party officials struggled with how to handle the overflow crowds. The start of the Converse County caucus was delayed due to long lines.

In Cheyenne, scores of late arrivers were turned away when party officials stopped allowing people to get in line at 11 a.m. EST. A party worker stood at the end of the line with a sign reading, "End of the line. Caucus rules require the voter registration process to be closed at this time."

State party spokesman Bill Luckett said they were obligated to follow its rules as well as those of the Democratic National Committee regarding caucus procedures.

"Everybody knew the registration began over an hour before the caucus was called to order. We've done everything we could to accommodate people in the long lines," Luckett said.

After initially accepting provisional ballots from about 20 people who remained behind at the caucus site, party officials said they and both campaigns had decided not to count those votes. John Millin, state party chair, said doing so would have been unfair to those who had left after being turned away.

In Casper, home of the state party's headquarters, hundreds were lined up at the site of the Natrona County caucus. The location was a hotel meeting room with a capacity of 500. Some 7,700 registered Democrats live in the county.

"We'll have to put 'em in the grass after a while," said Bob Warburton, a local party official.

About 59,000 registered Democrats are eligible to participate in Wyoming's caucuses.

Only in the last few weeks have the campaigns stepped up their presence in Wyoming, opening offices and calling voters and sending mailers.

Although a win in Wyoming may not persuade many superdelegates, it will be one more prize for the candidates as they make their case for the nomination.

Clinton has hinted recently that if she wins the nomination she would consider sharing the ticket with Obama. But in an interview Friday in Wyoming with KTVQ-TV, a CBS affiliate based in Billings, Mont., Obama shied away from that possibility.

"Well, you know, I think it's premature. You won't see me as a vice presidential candidate ? you know, I'm running for president," Obama told the television station. "We have won twice as many states as Senator Clinton, and have a higher popular vote, and I think we can maintain our delegate count.

"What I am really focused on right now, because all that stuff is premature, is winning this nomination and changing the country. I think that's what people here are concerned about."

SOURCE

Do the individual states mean that much anymore? I thought it was stated that it is pretty much going to go all the way to the Convention, now. With Obama now coming out ahead in Texas, could he actually clinch it? How do the numbers work out now that the adjusted numbers from Texas are in, barring a lawsuit?
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
No, he can't clinch it.

Because the super delegates make up 20% of the delegates, he would have to win 62.5% of the elected delegates to get to +50%

(50% divided by the 80% elected delegates = 62.5%)

The delegates proportional awarding system "math" makes that almost impossible.

He'll just have a big lead.

Fern
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
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Originally posted by: Perknose
. . . Or a slight lead.

Slight lead in terms of the numerical system. But considering the competition and the road ahead, it's a big lead. Some say it's insurmountable.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
^Right

Back a month ago, before Obama was leading, 30 -50 elected delegates was considered a lead too big to overturn by the SD's.

Now that Obama has twice that, it's no longer a big enough lead.

If things continue further on this path, next we'll hear "less is really more" so Hillary wins.

;)

Fern
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
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Whoever was saying 30-50 lead was too big to overturn by superdelegates is obviously not very good at math, just like whoever is saying 100 delegate lead is too big.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
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Originally posted by: senseamp
Whoever was saying 30-50 lead was too big to overturn by superdelegates is obviously not very good at math, just like whoever is saying 100 delegate lead is too big.
True. In fact, I heard that if he leads by one less than the supers could reverse, all by siding with Clinton, they will. Because she's more electable :) Uh huh...
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: senseamp
Whoever was saying 30-50 lead was too big to overturn by superdelegates is obviously not very good at math, just like whoever is saying 100 delegate lead is too big.
True. In fact, I heard that if he leads by one less than the supers could reverse, all by siding with Clinton, they will. Because she's more electable :) Uh huh...

Supers are there for a reason. If they couldn't reverse pledged delegate counts, the party would just count pledged delegates at the convention and be done with it.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,268
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Originally posted by: senseamp
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: senseamp
Whoever was saying 30-50 lead was too big to overturn by superdelegates is obviously not very good at math, just like whoever is saying 100 delegate lead is too big.
True. In fact, I heard that if he leads by one less than the supers could reverse, all by siding with Clinton, they will. Because she's more electable :) Uh huh...

Supers are there for a reason. If they couldn't reverse pledged delegate counts, the party would just count pledged delegates at the convention and be done with it.

If supers determine that Hillary wins, then not only will McCain win, but he will win big.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
Originally posted by: senseamp
Whoever was saying 30-50 lead was too big to overturn by superdelegates is obviously not very good at math, just like whoever is saying 100 delegate lead is too big.

Hahaha,

Man, it's a not a "math thing".

It's a subjective thing.

How much of lead is too big so as to be seen as disregarding voters and overturning the will of the electorate?

Or conversely, how much of a lead is so small that you could get away with it?

Nobody really knows until they try to do it.

Some political commentators like Chris Matthews bring this up often and refer to Jeffersonian Democracy - only takes one vote to make a majority.

Fern
 

M0RPH

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,302
1
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Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

If supers determine that Hillary wins, then not only will McCain win, but he will win big.

Riiight, you keep telling yourself that.

BTW, A whole 8500 people voted in the Wyoming caucus. Less than 2% of the population. What a joke, just like the rest of the caucases.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,986
1
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Originally posted by: M0RPH
BTW, A whole 8500 people voted in the Wyoming caucus. Less than 2% of the population. What a joke, just like the rest of the caucases.

Translation: Hillary lost...again. :laugh:
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,686
136
If Obama can widen his lead somewhat, he'll arrive at the convention in good shape. Even if the superdelegates split along the lines of the committed delegates, which seems likely, he'll win...

Most Dem state organizations are on the side of the DNC (Obama's camp) rather than the DLC (Hillary's camp) and will have chosen their superdelegates accordingly...
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,986
3,321
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Originally posted by: M0RPH
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

If supers determine that Hillary wins, then not only will McCain win, but he will win big.

Riiight, you keep telling yourself that.

BTW, A whole 8500 people voted in the Wyoming caucus. Less than 2% of the population. What a joke, just like the rest of the caucases.

There is NO way Hillary can beat McCain!!
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,839
2,625
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Originally posted by: M0RPH
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

If supers determine that Hillary wins, then not only will McCain win, but he will win big.

Riiight, you keep telling yourself that.

BTW, A whole 8500 people voted in the Wyoming caucus. Less than 2% of the population. What a joke, just like the rest of the caucases.

I think it was more like 7700, but you could be right. I remember it being about the population of the little burg I live in, one of the smallest towns in one of the smallest states.

Ironically, the newcasters were all saying how the turnout was so heavy, much heavier than four years ago. At one caucus point (supposedly the largest in the state) they had about 1500 people, four years ago they didn't even have a hundred.

Tiny as it is, Hillary put in the effort. Hillary, Bill and their daughter all three made different personal appearances at rallies yesterday so her campaign can hardly claim they had written it off.
 

M0RPH

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,302
1
0
Originally posted by: JEDIYoda

There is NO way Hillary can beat McCain!!

Right, just keep saying it and it will become truth.

I've give detailed explanations in other threads today why Obama is the weaker of the two candidates against McCain. Where's yours?
 

cumhail

Senior member
Apr 1, 2003
682
0
0
Originally posted by: JEDIYoda
Originally posted by: M0RPH
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

If supers determine that Hillary wins, then not only will McCain win, but he will win big.

Riiight, you keep telling yourself that.

BTW, A whole 8500 people voted in the Wyoming caucus. Less than 2% of the population. What a joke, just like the rest of the caucases.

There is NO way Hillary can beat McCain!!

I don't know if there is or isn't. All I do know is that if she's the candidate the Democrats run, I'm not voting for either party. I won't vote for her, and I sure as hell won't vote for McCain.

At the end of the day, I'm quite sure that Obama is just another politician with pretty things for the people to hear. But that said, I still consider him the least of the three evils. And so he's the only one of the three I'd consider giving my vote to.
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,676
5,239
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The rules are the same for everybody. If you lose you lose. If she can't even rally people to come out and support her at a caucus, then that's saying the support and enthusiasm for her candidacy is weak and shows real structural problems. Looks like she is just riding in name recognition, Bill's accomplishments and FUD attacks. Not many really give a shit about her.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,549
1,130
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Originally posted by: senseamp
Whoever was saying 30-50 lead was too big to overturn by superdelegates is obviously not very good at math, just like whoever is saying 100 delegate lead is too big.

No, the super delegates can overcome that lead, but they would be destroying the party for a candidate that cannot win in November. If Obama is up over 100 delegates, and he walks away the loser at the Convention. Kiss the black vote, the youth vote, and the independent vote good by. You'll have old white women, the uneducated, and the racists of the democratic party left. A coalition that cannot win.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,549
1,130
126
Originally posted by: M0RPH
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider

If supers determine that Hillary wins, then not only will McCain win, but he will win big.

Riiight, you keep telling yourself that.

BTW, A whole 8500 people voted in the Wyoming caucus. Less than 2% of the population. What a joke, just like the rest of the caucases.

There are 55,000 registered dems in Wyoming. Thats 15%, not 2%. The Texas turnout was 22% of registered voters. Wyoming is much much more of a red state that TX.
 

M0RPH

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,302
1
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Originally posted by: Wreckem

No, the super delegates can overcome that lead, but they would be destroying the party for a candidate that cannot win in November. If Obama is up over 100 delegates, and he walks away the loser at the Convention. Kiss the black vote, the youth vote, and the independent vote good by. You'll have old white women, the uneducated, and the racists of the democratic party left. A coalition that cannot win.

Wow, I actually thought you were smarter than that. Your statements show ignorance.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,549
1,130
126
Originally posted by: M0RPH
Originally posted by: Wreckem

No, the super delegates can overcome that lead, but they would be destroying the party for a candidate that cannot win in November. If Obama is up over 100 delegates, and he walks away the loser at the Convention. Kiss the black vote, the youth vote, and the independent vote good by. You'll have old white women, the uneducated, and the racists of the democratic party left. A coalition that cannot win.

Wow, I actually thought you were smarter than that. Your statements show ignorance.

Do you honestly the black vote is going to vote for Clinton if she wisn the nomination by Super Delegates? If Obama supports feel the nomination was stolen from him, they will NOT VOTE in November. They won't and she'll go down in every single swing state. Plain and simple. Mark this thread just incase Hillary does steal it.


And those are her demographics. Women, old women, the uneducated, those making under $50k, and the closeted racists of the Democratic Party.

Just looked at the delegate counter. Its like Clinton didnt even win in Ohio and TX anymore.