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Obama will win the Democratic Nomination.

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,816
83
91
it was extremely likely after Hillary failed to have a decisive victory on Super Tuesday and now seems inevitable... he'd have to get caught on bestiality tape or something for his numbers to drop to the point where he might lose, and even then, I think it'd be unlikely ;)

any chance we can have a congratulatory thread without totally trashing Hillary? :p I think she ran a half-decent campaign... she didn't get steamrolled, I just think the voters weren't interested in what she was selling.

I don't think the general election will be as much of a cake walk as a lot of democrats are predicting, but things are looking pretty bad for the republicans... the GE is really going to be the dem's to sabotage; all they've got to do is not mess up too much. guess a year from now, we'll see what the other side of the aisle can do with control of the presidency and increasing margins in the house/senate.
 

Corbett

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2005
3,074
0
76
If this election cycle has taught me one thing, its to not count anyone out until they are actually OUT!
 

M0RPH

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,305
1
0
Nice sentiments but it's not time to congratulate anyone just yet. I do admit, though, it's not looking good for Hillary. I had hopes that she would keep it close in Wisconsin.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
2
0
Safe money is on her losing and I would bet somebody on that count, but yeah it is still too close to call with total certainty.

Agree with sentiments on the election being theirs to lose.
 

RichardE

Banned
Dec 31, 2005
10,246
2
0
I wouldn't count the repubs out yet. As much as I am cheering for Obama, he has alot of weaknesses that McCain can attack that Hilary couldn't. It will be an interesting GE
 

Skitzer

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2000
4,415
3
81
I agree that he will win the nomination. Texas and Ohio are shifting in his favor as we speak due probably to yesterdays wins. But I worry about his chances with McCain. I think it will be a lot closer than people here think.
Regardless, I'm just so happy it doesn't play out Bush->Clinton->Bush->Clinton. I've had just about enough of both families!
 

jonks

Lifer
Feb 7, 2005
13,918
18
81
I think it'd be foolish to lay down money on her winning at this point, but equally foolish to definitely count her out. I mean, it'd be the 3rd time in 2 months. Still 2 debates, 2 weeks to OH/TX. Lotsa time for mistakes, but if the writing isn't on the wall, the pencils are definitely being sharpened.

I also would not count out the Republicans. All signs right now point to a dem victory, but right now is 8 months from November. Speculating is fine, but declaring victory doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I remember the punch in the gut in 04, so I'll hope to be cheering on Nov 5, and not a day sooner.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,987
1
0
Yep. It's over. ;)

In fact, McCain has already began to attack Obama.

The only question now is how long it will take her to concede.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,816
83
91
Originally posted by: Corbett
If this election cycle has taught me one thing, its to not count anyone out until they are actually OUT!
consider me on record as ***OFFICIALLY*** counting her out :p

even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's not going to win by substantial margins, and the super delegates are not going to swing en mass to support the candidate faring the worst in head-to-head match-ups vs the republican nominee (even if such polls are more or less useless at this point)
 

Rio Rebel

Administrator Emeritus<br>Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
5,194
0
0
Hillary is a brilliant woman who understands the issues better than anyone. I congratulate her on her skill as a debater, her knowledge of the issues, and her strength as a candidate.

I can't congratulate her on her campaign, because frankly, her campaign has been awful. She had every advantage going into this thing - far more name recognition, tons of people loyal to her husband as a former President, more money initially, etc. And she never seemed to engage Obama as a candidate. She either ignored him and tried to play the "inevitability" angle, or she sniped at him once it became obvious that he was legit.

Some people who ran Hillary's campaign did an awful job.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,987
1
0
Originally posted by: loki8481
consider me on record as ***OFFICIALLY*** counting her out :p

even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's not going to win by substantial margins, and the super delegates are not going to swing en mass to support the candidate faring the worst in head-to-head match-ups vs the republican nominee (even if such polls are more or less useless at this point)
That's pretty much my take, too.

She would now need to perform a clean sweep on March 4, and not only that, she would need large margins. 60/40 or better, in Ohio AND Texas, and even then she wouldn't be close enough.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,651
1,883
126
The question now becomes is this: will Hillary go aggressively on the offensive and attempt to weaken Obama's momentum going into Texas and Ohio...will she further weaken the Democrats, or cause the party to divide, all in the name of winning the nomination?

Here is the danger for the Democrats...McCain is sitting by the sidelines right now, and working to build a coalition of support among fiscal conservatives and the religious right...a tough task to be sure, but a necessary one, and an effort he can focus on without having to simultaneously dodge bullets from a Democrat contender...the tight race between Obama and Hillary is giving McCain something he desperately needs...time to refine his platform for the General Election.

I don't think Hillary can defeat Obama at this point without some major political shenanigans, or running a Swift Boat type campaign against Obama...we have already seen attempts by the Clinton machine to divert this campaign towards dirty politics.

What if she follows the course of attempting to capture Obama's pledged delegates...or bring the superdelegates into play...or continue to argue for the inclusion of Michigan's and Florida's delegates at the DNC...none of these avenues will benefit the Democrats going into the General Election, but they are all paths Hillary could pursue if she chooses to place her candidacy above her party.

 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,353
4,067
126
The Republican party cause a wave of fear and panic while they picked our pocket and the tsunami of sanity is cresting. Fear is giving way to hope. The nightmare is coming to an end.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,987
1
0
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
The question now becomes is this: will Hillary go aggressively on the offensive and attempt to weaken Obama's momentum going into Texas and Ohio...will she further weaken the Democrats, or cause the party to divide, all in the name of winning the nomination?
Hillary's Campaign In Throes; Debate In Inner Circle About How Negative To Go Thursday

I think she's going to take the Penn advice and go all out. She's gonna go as negative as possible. She has nothing to lose - 50% of the country absolutely despises her and would never cast a vote for her in the first place.
 

jonks

Lifer
Feb 7, 2005
13,918
18
81
Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
The question now becomes is this: will Hillary go aggressively on the offensive and attempt to weaken Obama's momentum going into Texas and Ohio...will she further weaken the Democrats, or cause the party to divide, all in the name of winning the nomination?
Hillary's Campaign In Throes; Debate In Inner Circle About How Negative To Go Thursday

I think she's going to take the Penn advice and go all out. She's gonna go as negative as possible. She has nothing to lose - 50% of the country absolutely despises her and would never cast a vote for her in the first place.
50% of the country voted for Bush twice, so I wouldn't be citing them as the epitome of good judgment.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,987
1
0
Originally posted by: sirjonk
50% of the country voted for Bush twice, so I wouldn't be citing them as the epitome of good judgment.
Ah, but I'm not citing them as good judges. GWB's 'Unfavorable' rating was never as high as Hillary's. And she's been hovering between 46 and 51% unfavorable throughout the entire campaign.

Saying that 50% of the country wouldn't vote for a candidate under any circumstances is not citing them as good judges ... just stating the obvious, that her negatives are simply too high to possibly win in a General Election.
 

FoBoT

No Lifer
Apr 30, 2001
63,089
12
76
fobot.com
Originally posted by: loki8481
..he'd have to get caught on bestiality tape or something
i don't think that would be a problem for liberals, they are ok with anything that is "victimless"
 

lupi

Lifer
Apr 8, 2001
32,539
260
126
Originally posted by: sirjonk
Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
The question now becomes is this: will Hillary go aggressively on the offensive and attempt to weaken Obama's momentum going into Texas and Ohio...will she further weaken the Democrats, or cause the party to divide, all in the name of winning the nomination?
Hillary's Campaign In Throes; Debate In Inner Circle About How Negative To Go Thursday

I think she's going to take the Penn advice and go all out. She's gonna go as negative as possible. She has nothing to lose - 50% of the country absolutely despises her and would never cast a vote for her in the first place.
50% of the country voted for Bush twice, so I wouldn't be citing them as the epitome of good judgment.

:D
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,816
83
91
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
The question now becomes is this: will Hillary go aggressively on the offensive and attempt to weaken Obama's momentum going into Texas and Ohio...will she further weaken the Democrats, or cause the party to divide, all in the name of winning the nomination?
I think she will, but I don't think that it will hurt the democratic party.

I'm sure Obama would confirm that he'd rather be facing these attacks now, in February, to get them out of the way before the general election gets into full swing in August - October.
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,505
1
81
I think it's pretty clear at this point that Obama will win the presidency barring an assassination or something like that.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
2
0
Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: sirjonk
50% of the country voted for Bush twice, so I wouldn't be citing them as the epitome of good judgment.
Ah, but I'm not citing them as good judges. GWB's 'Unfavorable' rating was never as high as Hillary's. And she's been hovering between 46 and 51% unfavorable throughout the entire campaign.

Saying that 50% of the country wouldn't vote for a candidate under any circumstances is not citing them as good judges ... just stating the obvious, that her negatives are simply too high to possibly win in a General Election.
Correct!
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
48,397
9,243
126
Originally posted by: FoBoT
Originally posted by: loki8481
..he'd have to get caught on bestiality tape or something
i don't think that would be a problem for liberals, they are ok with anything that is "victimless"
Because PETA votes Republican?
 
Jun 27, 2005
19,252
1
61
Originally posted by: sirjonk
Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
The question now becomes is this: will Hillary go aggressively on the offensive and attempt to weaken Obama's momentum going into Texas and Ohio...will she further weaken the Democrats, or cause the party to divide, all in the name of winning the nomination?
Hillary's Campaign In Throes; Debate In Inner Circle About How Negative To Go Thursday

I think she's going to take the Penn advice and go all out. She's gonna go as negative as possible. She has nothing to lose - 50% of the country absolutely despises her and would never cast a vote for her in the first place.
50% of the country voted for Bush twice, so I wouldn't be citing them as the epitome of good judgment.
To be fair... He was running against Kerry and Gore. ;)
 

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