Obama 15 points ahead
- Thread starter sportage
- Start date
amazing news.
who would have imagined the democrat winning in the polls after 8 years of Bush.
oh wait, everyone.
polls are meaningless this far out, especially national ones.
the election is Obama's to lose, but in my wildest imagination, I can't see McCain scraping by with 36% of the vote.
who would have imagined the democrat winning in the polls after 8 years of Bush.
oh wait, everyone.
polls are meaningless this far out, especially national ones.
the election is Obama's to lose, but in my wildest imagination, I can't see McCain scraping by with 36% of the vote.
Pew Research puts the nationwide breakdown as 36% democrats, 27% republicans and 37% independent.
So, that sample seems pretty close on party ID to me, glad you think Obama should have such a large lead.
This is why there is a threat of a wipeout... some pollsters may be way too conservative considering the political climate. While this is an interesting poll, it's the state by state ones that concern me more.
umbrella39
Lifer
- Jun 11, 2004
- 13,816
- 1,126
- 126
Don Vito Corleone
Elite
- Feb 10, 2000
- 30,029
- 67
- 91
While I don't believe the true gap is as high as 15 percent, I think there IS a significant gap, and it will grow over time. When the dust settles I believe this election will be a Clinton-Bush-type gap, with Obama winning the popular vote by a significant percentage and absolutely drubbing McCain in the electoral vote. Mark my words and feel free to hold them against me if I'm wrong.
Yeah, because we should just stick with one party. Why give folks a choice? :roll:
Not that I'm happy with the jokers the GOP have crowned or the general state of the party, but...
Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
- 3
- 0
Even as a partisan democrats, I will not allow my self to get too elated over one poll. Lots of future events will somewhat change the picture as 11/4/08 gets very near.
The problem for the GOP lies in the fact that all events and news will probably favor Obama and the democrats as GWB&co dangles slowly in the wind.
And the entire world eagerly awaits the coming 1/20/2009, when the hand of history, with one casual flick, pulls the toilet level, and the turd called GWB&co goes straight down the toilet.
The bleetings of Pabster are especially ironic with------Yeah, because we should just stick with one party. Why give folks a choice?
Which in itself is an entire denial of cause and effect. Pabster, the GOP will offer us a full slate of candidates in 11/08, its just the fact that the democrats will likely defeat the bulk of them BECAUSE THE GOP EARNED IT, not only with their stupid and arrogant behavior in the first six years of GWB, but they will double earn it due to their behavior after 2006.
Pabster, if you did not see this GOP train wreck coming years ago, its too late for you to either rehabilitate your credibility or save the GOP.
The GOP forgot to deliver the positive results and in fact have no one to blame but themselves, end of story. The GOP thought political and military power would trump results, it never has and never will.
The problem for the GOP lies in the fact that all events and news will probably favor Obama and the democrats as GWB&co dangles slowly in the wind.
And the entire world eagerly awaits the coming 1/20/2009, when the hand of history, with one casual flick, pulls the toilet level, and the turd called GWB&co goes straight down the toilet.
The bleetings of Pabster are especially ironic with------Yeah, because we should just stick with one party. Why give folks a choice?
Which in itself is an entire denial of cause and effect. Pabster, the GOP will offer us a full slate of candidates in 11/08, its just the fact that the democrats will likely defeat the bulk of them BECAUSE THE GOP EARNED IT, not only with their stupid and arrogant behavior in the first six years of GWB, but they will double earn it due to their behavior after 2006.
Pabster, if you did not see this GOP train wreck coming years ago, its too late for you to either rehabilitate your credibility or save the GOP.
The GOP forgot to deliver the positive results and in fact have no one to blame but themselves, end of story. The GOP thought political and military power would trump results, it never has and never will.
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 174
- 106
Good point, with the *winner-take-all* method of the electorial college system, state polls are what matter (just like a state's votes). E.g., losing CA & NY by .01% or 100% changes nothing for McCain in the EC, but sure makes the popular vote look a lot different.
Fern
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,161
- 7
- 0
On June 21 1988 Dukakis had a 12 point lead over Bush.
Of course Dukakis ended up losing by 8 points, a twenty point swing.
Now I doubt Obama suffers the same fate, but you never know.
The one thing Obama and Dukakis have in common is that they were both relatively unknowns running for President for the first time.
Obama does have a huge advantage in that people see the country going in the wrong direction, while in 98 they saw it going in the right direction.
Of course Dukakis ended up losing by 8 points, a twenty point swing.
Now I doubt Obama suffers the same fate, but you never know.
The one thing Obama and Dukakis have in common is that they were both relatively unknowns running for President for the first time.
Obama does have a huge advantage in that people see the country going in the wrong direction, while in 98 they saw it going in the right direction.
CADsortaGUY
Lifer
Yep, polling is very dependent on methodology and sample - thus they will never be as accurate as some people want them to be.
TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 24K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 19K
-
-
-
Facebook
Twitter